Well the Rams have gone through a lot these past few days. Odell Beckham, Jr. is signed. On the same day, Robert Woods is lost for the season. And 2021 seventh-rounder Ben Skowronek apparently will start. This is the NFL, where nothing is guaranteed.
Speaking of which, in my league I was all set to start Jimmy G. tonight over the injured Kyler Murray. But then yesterday morning I thought, "What if Jimmy suddenly goes on the COVID list?" My league doesn't have Monday waivers, so I'd be without a QB. And if that scenario sounds farfetched, consider that Big Ben went on the COVID list on Saturday, obviously without warning. Things happen. Again, this is the NFL. So I picked and started Mason Rudolph instead of taking the "risk" of starting Jimmy. Strange times.
Anyway, tonight's game has some clarity and some confusion. The clarity: Cooper Kupp is having one of the best fantasy seasons in WR history. Last season he averaged 1.4 fewer points per game than Woods. This year his chemistry with Matthew Stafford is other-worldly. Kupp's 26.2 fantasy points per game is 0.6 points higher than Davante Adams last season, and I believe (based on research I did last year) it would mark the greatest fantasy WR season of all time if he keeps up this pace.
Darrell Henderson has been rolling. I didn't trust his health enough to invest in him. Boo on me. Yay to those of you who believed in him. I've been stashing Sony Michel for weeks. Not as fun.
And we can assume--quite possibly--that two of San Francisco's top three receivers will get their points tonight. Deebo Samuel, the ascending Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle have the talent and targets to make a weekly impact. They're going against Jalen Ramsey. If anyone knows how that might play out, give a shout below. For now, the safe assumption is to start any of these three guys as a WR2/3, a WR3/4, and a TE1.
Now the confusion: What will OBJ do? He reportedly will play only a certain number of snaps--not the whole game. But we've seen receivers make a fantasy living off limited snap counts (Rob Gronkowski was famous for sometimes garnering TE1 production on 10-12 plays). I think the Rams will feature him enough to demonstrate that the signing was warranted. He's here for a reason. They're going to find ways to showcase him.
Where does that leave Van Jefferson? Presumably he'll gain a little value, especially tonight. But longer term? Hard to say, especially if OBJ is better than I expect (I'm expecting roughly WR3 production going forward, which isn't as bullish as many people). Jefferson is a legit talent. He's also at risk of remaining the #4 offensive option. The same goes for Tyler Higbee, who could break out at any time, but who also could take a backseat at any time. Hard to know if he benefits or struggles, though smart people could make a good case for either.
If Skowronek starts, what does that mean? Plenty of starting receivers do next to nothing in games. Just ask receivers in Atlanta, Tennessee, and elsewhere. I'd be shocked if he cracked three catches for 30 yards. He's the #6 offensive option, and possibly #7 after Michel.
And finally, San Francisco's backfield. I thought Raheem Mostert was overvalued this summer as a perennial injury risk. I thought Eli Mitchell would descend into a timeshare almost immediately. So, only 50% right. Mitchell has been an extraordinary find for savvy fantasy managers. His five receptions last week surprised me; that's often a key determinant of whether an RB is an automatic starter. If that continues, I'll stop questioning him. Otherwise, Jeff Wilson and Trey Sermon are still looming. Mitchell seems like a great bet each game, but it's hard to know whether he'll be a great bet 2-3 weeks out.
I like the Niners upsetting the Rams tonight, 23-17. As always, share your prediction in the comments, and if your pick is closest, you will be honored with one complete sentence (subject *and* verb) of accolades in tomorrow morning's column.
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- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
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Speaking of which, in my league I was all set to start Jimmy G. tonight over the injured Kyler Murray. But then yesterday morning I thought, "What if Jimmy suddenly goes on the COVID list?" My league doesn't have Monday waivers, so I'd be without a QB. And if that scenario sounds farfetched, consider that Big Ben went on the COVID list on Saturday, obviously without warning. Things happen. Again, this is the NFL. So I picked and started Mason Rudolph instead of taking the "risk" of starting Jimmy. Strange times.
Anyway, tonight's game has some clarity and some confusion. The clarity: Cooper Kupp is having one of the best fantasy seasons in WR history. Last season he averaged 1.4 fewer points per game than Woods. This year his chemistry with Matthew Stafford is other-worldly. Kupp's 26.2 fantasy points per game is 0.6 points higher than Davante Adams last season, and I believe (based on research I did last year) it would mark the greatest fantasy WR season of all time if he keeps up this pace.
Darrell Henderson has been rolling. I didn't trust his health enough to invest in him. Boo on me. Yay to those of you who believed in him. I've been stashing Sony Michel for weeks. Not as fun.
And we can assume--quite possibly--that two of San Francisco's top three receivers will get their points tonight. Deebo Samuel, the ascending Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle have the talent and targets to make a weekly impact. They're going against Jalen Ramsey. If anyone knows how that might play out, give a shout below. For now, the safe assumption is to start any of these three guys as a WR2/3, a WR3/4, and a TE1.
Now the confusion: What will OBJ do? He reportedly will play only a certain number of snaps--not the whole game. But we've seen receivers make a fantasy living off limited snap counts (Rob Gronkowski was famous for sometimes garnering TE1 production on 10-12 plays). I think the Rams will feature him enough to demonstrate that the signing was warranted. He's here for a reason. They're going to find ways to showcase him.
Where does that leave Van Jefferson? Presumably he'll gain a little value, especially tonight. But longer term? Hard to say, especially if OBJ is better than I expect (I'm expecting roughly WR3 production going forward, which isn't as bullish as many people). Jefferson is a legit talent. He's also at risk of remaining the #4 offensive option. The same goes for Tyler Higbee, who could break out at any time, but who also could take a backseat at any time. Hard to know if he benefits or struggles, though smart people could make a good case for either.
If Skowronek starts, what does that mean? Plenty of starting receivers do next to nothing in games. Just ask receivers in Atlanta, Tennessee, and elsewhere. I'd be shocked if he cracked three catches for 30 yards. He's the #6 offensive option, and possibly #7 after Michel.
And finally, San Francisco's backfield. I thought Raheem Mostert was overvalued this summer as a perennial injury risk. I thought Eli Mitchell would descend into a timeshare almost immediately. So, only 50% right. Mitchell has been an extraordinary find for savvy fantasy managers. His five receptions last week surprised me; that's often a key determinant of whether an RB is an automatic starter. If that continues, I'll stop questioning him. Otherwise, Jeff Wilson and Trey Sermon are still looming. Mitchell seems like a great bet each game, but it's hard to know whether he'll be a great bet 2-3 weeks out.
I like the Niners upsetting the Rams tonight, 23-17. As always, share your prediction in the comments, and if your pick is closest, you will be honored with one complete sentence (subject *and* verb) of accolades in tomorrow morning's column.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy