In most fantasy leagues, the trade deadline is this week or in the next two weeks. I understand trading isn't commonplace in some/many leagues. In my league I've made 13 trades so far. Yes, that might sound insane, especially considering all of my opponents are either casual or more regular readers of this blog. So they know exactly what I'm thinking. Then we engage in negotiations. And then we trade.
And I'm not afraid to say they've gotten the better of me in some trades, and I've gotten the better of them in others. Some have been complete washes. But almost every time, I'm trading away people who I think are about to drop in value, and they're giving me players they think are about to drop in value. Neither of us knows for sure. But our process is basically the same: buy low, sell high. We just have different ways of looking at the same players.
So with that in mind, here are some players I'd strongly recommend selling high, if there's any chance you can make trades in your leagues.
At QB, Matthew Stafford is tied for the third highest QB rating in the league and is #6 in fantasy points. I've drafted him multiple times over the years--which says a lot, because most years I've competed in no more than two leagues, and in recent years only one. So yeah, I'm a big fan fantasy-wise. But I'm concerned about two things: Robert Woods' season-ending injury, and his recent bought of back soreness. The 33-year-old had a phenomenal 2019 campaign curtained by broken bones in his back. I remember finding out, because I traded him away about an hour before the news hit, and then I offered to undo the trade because the timing was awful. My opponent kindly e-mailed something like "I knew the risks" (great guy).
But enough about my daily trading exploits. Stafford's "back soreness" was a yellow flag for me. Maybe it's nothing? But maybe it's something. And his last two games have been his two worst fantasy performances since Week 16 last season. Coincidence? Maybe. Or maybe not. While it's great (presumably) to have OBJ on the team, losing Woods will sting. A whopping 34 of his 45 catches (76%) this year have gone for first downs. By comparison, 61% of Cooper Kupp's catches have gone for first downs. Woods has been a sparingly used yet indispensable chain mover. I don't believe OBJ will play that role, and I view Stafford in riskier terms than I did a little over two weeks ago.
At RB, I can't imagine James Conner's value getting much higher. He's the lead back in (when Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins return) an elite offense. Simply appreciate that he's on pace for 20 touchdowns. Yes, 20. 49% of his fantasy points have come from touchdowns. That's not a comforting statistic if you're rostering Conner. True, he should continue to be great, or at least very good. But consider what his value would be if he scored once every two games the rest of the season, versus more than once (on average) every game. His extraordinary clip seems unsustainable.
At WR, it pains me to say this, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a bit overvalued. They're averaging about two more fantasy points per game than they did last year. Why? Because of extended absences from Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Statistically, Evans and Godwin are WR1s. In reality, they are at risk of dropping into the WR2 sphere. Additionally, the Bucs are averaging 4.3 yards per carry vs. 4.1 last year. Their RBs are catching 7 balls a game vs. 5.3 last year. Great efficiency and passing-game usage from this backfield, combined with the return of AB and Gronk, will make it difficult for Evans and Godwin to maintain their current production levels.
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- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
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And I'm not afraid to say they've gotten the better of me in some trades, and I've gotten the better of them in others. Some have been complete washes. But almost every time, I'm trading away people who I think are about to drop in value, and they're giving me players they think are about to drop in value. Neither of us knows for sure. But our process is basically the same: buy low, sell high. We just have different ways of looking at the same players.
So with that in mind, here are some players I'd strongly recommend selling high, if there's any chance you can make trades in your leagues.
At QB, Matthew Stafford is tied for the third highest QB rating in the league and is #6 in fantasy points. I've drafted him multiple times over the years--which says a lot, because most years I've competed in no more than two leagues, and in recent years only one. So yeah, I'm a big fan fantasy-wise. But I'm concerned about two things: Robert Woods' season-ending injury, and his recent bought of back soreness. The 33-year-old had a phenomenal 2019 campaign curtained by broken bones in his back. I remember finding out, because I traded him away about an hour before the news hit, and then I offered to undo the trade because the timing was awful. My opponent kindly e-mailed something like "I knew the risks" (great guy).
But enough about my daily trading exploits. Stafford's "back soreness" was a yellow flag for me. Maybe it's nothing? But maybe it's something. And his last two games have been his two worst fantasy performances since Week 16 last season. Coincidence? Maybe. Or maybe not. While it's great (presumably) to have OBJ on the team, losing Woods will sting. A whopping 34 of his 45 catches (76%) this year have gone for first downs. By comparison, 61% of Cooper Kupp's catches have gone for first downs. Woods has been a sparingly used yet indispensable chain mover. I don't believe OBJ will play that role, and I view Stafford in riskier terms than I did a little over two weeks ago.
At RB, I can't imagine James Conner's value getting much higher. He's the lead back in (when Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins return) an elite offense. Simply appreciate that he's on pace for 20 touchdowns. Yes, 20. 49% of his fantasy points have come from touchdowns. That's not a comforting statistic if you're rostering Conner. True, he should continue to be great, or at least very good. But consider what his value would be if he scored once every two games the rest of the season, versus more than once (on average) every game. His extraordinary clip seems unsustainable.
At WR, it pains me to say this, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are a bit overvalued. They're averaging about two more fantasy points per game than they did last year. Why? Because of extended absences from Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Statistically, Evans and Godwin are WR1s. In reality, they are at risk of dropping into the WR2 sphere. Additionally, the Bucs are averaging 4.3 yards per carry vs. 4.1 last year. Their RBs are catching 7 balls a game vs. 5.3 last year. Great efficiency and passing-game usage from this backfield, combined with the return of AB and Gronk, will make it difficult for Evans and Godwin to maintain their current production levels.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy