In August I shared a series of research projects I'd been working on. One addressed the "overworked RB" issue from a different angle. In addition to data showing regression tendencies for running backs following 350+ touch seasons, would data also show regression tendencies for running backs following high-snap-count campaigns? For this study, I drew the line at 600 snaps in a season, which is achieved by only a select few RBs each year:
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2021/08/new-research-snap-counts.html
My analysis covered all 101 players who had had 600+ snaps in a season since 2012--the same year this stat started being tracked publicly. I didn't know what to expect, and I was disappointed by what I'd found, because it suggested some of my favorite preseason RBs were also higher-than-normal injury/regression risks:
- 600-700 snaps -- 20% average fantasy point regression
- 701-800 snaps -- 27% average fantasy point regression
- 801-900 snaps -- 35% average fantasy point regression
- 901+ snaps -- 38% average fantasy point regression
Three things jumped out. First, the linear progression between rising snap counts and rising regression rates. If snap counts were irrelevant, this trend line probably wouldn't be so neat-and-tidy. Second, 75% of all 600+ snap RBs regressed the next season. That's an even larger percentage than I found with 350+ touch RBs. Third, of the 25 RBs who actually fared better the season after earning 600+ snaps, 18 fell within the 600-700 snap group. Those 18 players comprise 33% of the 54 players who've had 600-700 snaps.
Taking it a step further, 67% of 600-700 snap RBs (36 out of 54) did worse the next season. But 85% of 701+ snap RBs (40 out of 47) did worse. In other words, there's clearly a greater impact for RBs with uber-high snap counts.
So who had 701+ snap counts last year? Three RBs: Zeke Elliott (777), David Montgomery (707), and Derrick Henry (705). Two have missed or are going to miss extended time. The third (Zeke) is doing fine as the #9 fantasy RB in points per game. He's also on pace for 918 offensive snaps this year, so we might keep an eye on him in dynasty and heading into next year's draft.
Meanwhile, last year produced nine 600-700 snap RBs: Dalvin Cook (669), Alvin Kamara (658), J.D. McKissic (641), Melvin Gordon (627), Devin Singletary (622), Josh Jacobs (619), James Robinson (617), Kenyan Drake (615), and Miles Sanders (602). But we've seen regression and/or injuries from Cook, McKissic, Singletary, Jacobs, Drake, and Sanders.
Aside from Henry, it's too soon to know how these players will shake out at the near-halfway point of this season. But it's fascinating to observe how the data shared this summer already has been bolstered by what we've seen this year.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/2021/08/new-research-snap-counts.html
My analysis covered all 101 players who had had 600+ snaps in a season since 2012--the same year this stat started being tracked publicly. I didn't know what to expect, and I was disappointed by what I'd found, because it suggested some of my favorite preseason RBs were also higher-than-normal injury/regression risks:
- 600-700 snaps -- 20% average fantasy point regression
- 701-800 snaps -- 27% average fantasy point regression
- 801-900 snaps -- 35% average fantasy point regression
- 901+ snaps -- 38% average fantasy point regression
Three things jumped out. First, the linear progression between rising snap counts and rising regression rates. If snap counts were irrelevant, this trend line probably wouldn't be so neat-and-tidy. Second, 75% of all 600+ snap RBs regressed the next season. That's an even larger percentage than I found with 350+ touch RBs. Third, of the 25 RBs who actually fared better the season after earning 600+ snaps, 18 fell within the 600-700 snap group. Those 18 players comprise 33% of the 54 players who've had 600-700 snaps.
Taking it a step further, 67% of 600-700 snap RBs (36 out of 54) did worse the next season. But 85% of 701+ snap RBs (40 out of 47) did worse. In other words, there's clearly a greater impact for RBs with uber-high snap counts.
So who had 701+ snap counts last year? Three RBs: Zeke Elliott (777), David Montgomery (707), and Derrick Henry (705). Two have missed or are going to miss extended time. The third (Zeke) is doing fine as the #9 fantasy RB in points per game. He's also on pace for 918 offensive snaps this year, so we might keep an eye on him in dynasty and heading into next year's draft.
Meanwhile, last year produced nine 600-700 snap RBs: Dalvin Cook (669), Alvin Kamara (658), J.D. McKissic (641), Melvin Gordon (627), Devin Singletary (622), Josh Jacobs (619), James Robinson (617), Kenyan Drake (615), and Miles Sanders (602). But we've seen regression and/or injuries from Cook, McKissic, Singletary, Jacobs, Drake, and Sanders.
Aside from Henry, it's too soon to know how these players will shake out at the near-halfway point of this season. But it's fascinating to observe how the data shared this summer already has been bolstered by what we've seen this year.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy