Before jumping into tonight's game, a quick word on Derrick Henry. These things happen. No one can predict when or how. But--and this is the important part--we can estimate the likelihood that something will happen, as long as there is verifiable evidence to back it up.
My dire warnings about Henry and Dalvin Cook this summer were no different than my dire warnings about Christian McCaffrey last summer. If we know that 73% of RBs who earn 350+ touches end up regressing the following season, shouldn’t we factor this into our decision making? Or said another way, why would we pursue strategies that are only 27% likely to pay off?
Of course, some people are willing to take a 27% chance on a potential elite RB. Henry helped them get to a 6-2 record. Nothing wrong with that. In fact, my opponent next week has Henry, and he's 6-2. I can't speak for him, but perhaps he's overall pretty happy with how things have turned out, all things considered.
There are three parts to a season. We can win the draft and win the regular season. But if we don't have the best team for the playoffs . . . that's when the stakes are highest. I've lost so many times in the playoffs. It's painful. Happy to keep returning there. Unhappy about rarely having an elite enough team to claim the title. If Henry is out for all of the fantasy playoffs (not entirely likely, but quite possible), then was he worth a first-round pick? That's a question all of us should answer before we draft an overworked RB.
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For tonight, it's hard to believe the Chiefs are in a must-win situation at 3-4. They should pull through. Yet you know know what will happen, especially with a Giants team that's gradually getting healthier. All eyes will be on Patrick Mahomes--whether he can right the ship and return to dominance. I remain unconvinced Darrel Williams is a reliable RB2. Mecole Hardman continues to have a painfully low ceiling. Really, it's hard to trust anyone beyond the ususal three people: Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill.
For the Giants, Devontae Booker has been plodding his way to 3.2 yards per carry and is a risky RB3. I'm writing this Monday afternoon, when Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney are expected to return, but there's been no final word yet. Assuming they're back, I like both cracking 10 fantasy points. Evan might produce a 4-40 line, but a high ceiling seems out of the cards.
Predicting a 30-20 victory for the Chiefs. Leave your prediction below, and the winner will get a much-deserved shout-out, as always.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
My dire warnings about Henry and Dalvin Cook this summer were no different than my dire warnings about Christian McCaffrey last summer. If we know that 73% of RBs who earn 350+ touches end up regressing the following season, shouldn’t we factor this into our decision making? Or said another way, why would we pursue strategies that are only 27% likely to pay off?
Of course, some people are willing to take a 27% chance on a potential elite RB. Henry helped them get to a 6-2 record. Nothing wrong with that. In fact, my opponent next week has Henry, and he's 6-2. I can't speak for him, but perhaps he's overall pretty happy with how things have turned out, all things considered.
There are three parts to a season. We can win the draft and win the regular season. But if we don't have the best team for the playoffs . . . that's when the stakes are highest. I've lost so many times in the playoffs. It's painful. Happy to keep returning there. Unhappy about rarely having an elite enough team to claim the title. If Henry is out for all of the fantasy playoffs (not entirely likely, but quite possible), then was he worth a first-round pick? That's a question all of us should answer before we draft an overworked RB.
---
For tonight, it's hard to believe the Chiefs are in a must-win situation at 3-4. They should pull through. Yet you know know what will happen, especially with a Giants team that's gradually getting healthier. All eyes will be on Patrick Mahomes--whether he can right the ship and return to dominance. I remain unconvinced Darrel Williams is a reliable RB2. Mecole Hardman continues to have a painfully low ceiling. Really, it's hard to trust anyone beyond the ususal three people: Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill.
For the Giants, Devontae Booker has been plodding his way to 3.2 yards per carry and is a risky RB3. I'm writing this Monday afternoon, when Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney are expected to return, but there's been no final word yet. Assuming they're back, I like both cracking 10 fantasy points. Evan might produce a 4-40 line, but a high ceiling seems out of the cards.
Predicting a 30-20 victory for the Chiefs. Leave your prediction below, and the winner will get a much-deserved shout-out, as always.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy