If you're wondering whether to start a particular Cardinal or Packer tonight, walk through how you think the game might go. Here's my thought process:
First, who's out? Pretty straightforward. The Packers are missing two of their top three receivers. 41% of their targets this year have gone to Davante Adams or Allen Lazard. Some combination of 7-8 players will try to pick up the slack, including wideouts Randall Cobb, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (if he returns), Equanimeous St. Brown, and Amari Rodgers. They have a combined 23 receptions in 22 games. Granted, some haven't seen much action in games where they've been active. But this is not a high-performing group. Just like in Tennessee a few weeks ago when Josh Reynolds had to step up, there's a good chance one of these guys will tonight. But two? That seems slim.
And not because Green Bay's tight ends will necessarily blow up. Yes, Robert Tonyan thrived when Adams sat last season, and Mercedes Lewis is a solid veteran who's caught nine of 10 targets this year (despite a 58% career catch rate, which is pretty sub-par for a TE). But Arizona's defense is #1 in the league against tight ends, as TEs are averaging only 5.5 fantasy points per game. So now you're thinking, "I'm not starting Tonyan." But wait one second: maybe the best opposting TE the Cardinals have faced is David Njoku. So let's not overreact to this stat. Tonyan is a 10+ point option, in my opinion.
As for Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, we have to believe Jones will get enough work to keep him in the RB2 conversation. Will he get enough receptions and/or scoring opportunities to crack the top 10? That's the big question. For now, he's a safe start, period. And Dillon is a bit of a Hail Mary after his Week 7 regression. I remain high on him longer term, and hopefully the coaching staff goes right back to him today. He deserves 10+ touches a game, and I'm saying that not because I drafted him. He's an important part of this offense, and the Packers will need him tonight.
For Arizona, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have to be automatic starts, and it's hard to imagine benching Christian Kirk. I'm comfortable rolling with Chase Edmonds and James Conner as flex options. A.J. Green is borderling flexable based on a middling target share. And Zach Ertz should be viewed as a back-end TE1, but in my view it's best to sell high, as he's more TD-dependent than he seems in an offense loaded with talent.
Predicting a 30-14 Arizona win. And they'll move one step closer to a potential must-see Week 17 showdown in Dallas to keep their undefeated season alive. But of course, we still have a ways to go.
Share your prediction below, and as always I'll massively (and briefly) hype whoever gets closest.
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First, who's out? Pretty straightforward. The Packers are missing two of their top three receivers. 41% of their targets this year have gone to Davante Adams or Allen Lazard. Some combination of 7-8 players will try to pick up the slack, including wideouts Randall Cobb, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (if he returns), Equanimeous St. Brown, and Amari Rodgers. They have a combined 23 receptions in 22 games. Granted, some haven't seen much action in games where they've been active. But this is not a high-performing group. Just like in Tennessee a few weeks ago when Josh Reynolds had to step up, there's a good chance one of these guys will tonight. But two? That seems slim.
And not because Green Bay's tight ends will necessarily blow up. Yes, Robert Tonyan thrived when Adams sat last season, and Mercedes Lewis is a solid veteran who's caught nine of 10 targets this year (despite a 58% career catch rate, which is pretty sub-par for a TE). But Arizona's defense is #1 in the league against tight ends, as TEs are averaging only 5.5 fantasy points per game. So now you're thinking, "I'm not starting Tonyan." But wait one second: maybe the best opposting TE the Cardinals have faced is David Njoku. So let's not overreact to this stat. Tonyan is a 10+ point option, in my opinion.
As for Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, we have to believe Jones will get enough work to keep him in the RB2 conversation. Will he get enough receptions and/or scoring opportunities to crack the top 10? That's the big question. For now, he's a safe start, period. And Dillon is a bit of a Hail Mary after his Week 7 regression. I remain high on him longer term, and hopefully the coaching staff goes right back to him today. He deserves 10+ touches a game, and I'm saying that not because I drafted him. He's an important part of this offense, and the Packers will need him tonight.
For Arizona, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have to be automatic starts, and it's hard to imagine benching Christian Kirk. I'm comfortable rolling with Chase Edmonds and James Conner as flex options. A.J. Green is borderling flexable based on a middling target share. And Zach Ertz should be viewed as a back-end TE1, but in my view it's best to sell high, as he's more TD-dependent than he seems in an offense loaded with talent.
Predicting a 30-14 Arizona win. And they'll move one step closer to a potential must-see Week 17 showdown in Dallas to keep their undefeated season alive. But of course, we still have a ways to go.
Share your prediction below, and as always I'll massively (and briefly) hype whoever gets closest.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy