Before getting into Week 8 contrarian predictions, as many of you might have seen, some fairly significant news in the last 48 hours. First, Dak Prescott is questionable. My colleague Tommy Garrett and I discuss on our latest podcast episode (link down at the bottom) the significant implications if he sits. I also wrote a piece on this for Pro Football Network. Zeke Elliott and especially Tony Pollard might get a bump if Dak sits, assuming the team plays it conservatively with backup QB Cooper Rush. Meanwhile, CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper would take the biggest hit.
Austin Ekeler is questionable, and not the good kind. I've said this before and will keep saying it: his durability is a yellow flag. He complemented Melvin Gordon very well in 2018 in 2019. Then Gordon left, and Ekeler's workload increased in 2020 and this year. His offensive snap percentage has risen each season. The Chargers need a legit two-down back--not Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelley or Larry Rountree, from what I've seen. Easier said than done, I suppose. But I don't think they can keep giving Ekeler 17+ touches a game.
Corey Davis is now doubtful to play this week, meaning Jamison Crowder might get a little boost. But I'm expecting Mike White to lean heavily on his RBs (Michael Carter and Ty Johnson), as inexperienced QBs often do.
And Robert Tonyan is officially out for the season. A tough break for some fantasy managers and certainly the Packers, who once again find themselves short of high-end pass-catchers beyond Davante Adams. Maybe they'll make a move before the deadline (Brandin Cooks?)
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For contrarian predictions this weekend, are there any non-QB1s we can trust as streamers? Teddy Bridgewater (expert-consensus QB-18) is one of my favorite Week 8 bargains, period. Wrote about him earlier this week on Pro Football Network. Terrific matchup against Washington, and Jerry Jeudy is expected to return. I'm also betting on a rebound for Jared Goff (QB-25), whose last two games have come against the now 5-2 Bengals and 6-1 Rams. Remember when he was a QB1 after three or four weeks? That guy still exists, even with a terrible receiving corps. D'Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, Kalif Raymond, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are enough to prop him up against the sub-middling Eagles.
On the flip side, if I had to bet against any seemingly must-start QB this week, it would be Tom Brady (QB-6) in New Orleans. The Saints have a brutally tough pass defense. This is one of those games where Brady hits 16-18 points, but not the 22+ he's grown accustomed to.
At running back, Brandon Bolden (RB-45) is undervalued in the belief he's carrying the James White mantle. I've been hyping Devin Singletary (RB-34) all week as a big bargain against the anemic Dolphins. On the flip side, will Tampa Bay be ready for Alvin Kamara (RB-4)? Yes, I believe they will be.
At wideout, Jarvis Landry (WR-40) should comfortably outperform expectations as Cleveland's de facto #1 receiver. And I'm a sucker for punishment with Laviska Shenault (WR-34); after a bye week, I would hope and expect the Jags figure out how to incorporate him more into the offense. On the flip side, Deebo Samuel has been hit-or-miss in his last four weeks, and I can't justify calling him a top-14 WR in Chicago, despite his WR-6 rnaking.
Finally, I can't justifiably hype Pat Freiermuth (TE-24), because his ranking assumes Eric Ebron will play (he won't). But keep Freiermuth in your back pocket if you don't have a top-10 TE. His upside is terrific if he can officially overtake Ebron going forward (and he pretty much has already). Otherwise, I like Gerald Everett (TE-20) getting more attention as Geno Smith gets a little more comfortable in relief of Russell Wilson. On the flip side, Mike Gesicki (TE-5) is not an obvious start in Buffalo. Opposing TEs are averaging less than nine fantasy points. Although Travis Kelce scored, they held him to a fairly modest 6-57 line. Gesicki will have his hands full.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
Austin Ekeler is questionable, and not the good kind. I've said this before and will keep saying it: his durability is a yellow flag. He complemented Melvin Gordon very well in 2018 in 2019. Then Gordon left, and Ekeler's workload increased in 2020 and this year. His offensive snap percentage has risen each season. The Chargers need a legit two-down back--not Justin Jackson or Joshua Kelley or Larry Rountree, from what I've seen. Easier said than done, I suppose. But I don't think they can keep giving Ekeler 17+ touches a game.
Corey Davis is now doubtful to play this week, meaning Jamison Crowder might get a little boost. But I'm expecting Mike White to lean heavily on his RBs (Michael Carter and Ty Johnson), as inexperienced QBs often do.
And Robert Tonyan is officially out for the season. A tough break for some fantasy managers and certainly the Packers, who once again find themselves short of high-end pass-catchers beyond Davante Adams. Maybe they'll make a move before the deadline (Brandin Cooks?)
---
For contrarian predictions this weekend, are there any non-QB1s we can trust as streamers? Teddy Bridgewater (expert-consensus QB-18) is one of my favorite Week 8 bargains, period. Wrote about him earlier this week on Pro Football Network. Terrific matchup against Washington, and Jerry Jeudy is expected to return. I'm also betting on a rebound for Jared Goff (QB-25), whose last two games have come against the now 5-2 Bengals and 6-1 Rams. Remember when he was a QB1 after three or four weeks? That guy still exists, even with a terrible receiving corps. D'Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, Kalif Raymond, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are enough to prop him up against the sub-middling Eagles.
On the flip side, if I had to bet against any seemingly must-start QB this week, it would be Tom Brady (QB-6) in New Orleans. The Saints have a brutally tough pass defense. This is one of those games where Brady hits 16-18 points, but not the 22+ he's grown accustomed to.
At running back, Brandon Bolden (RB-45) is undervalued in the belief he's carrying the James White mantle. I've been hyping Devin Singletary (RB-34) all week as a big bargain against the anemic Dolphins. On the flip side, will Tampa Bay be ready for Alvin Kamara (RB-4)? Yes, I believe they will be.
At wideout, Jarvis Landry (WR-40) should comfortably outperform expectations as Cleveland's de facto #1 receiver. And I'm a sucker for punishment with Laviska Shenault (WR-34); after a bye week, I would hope and expect the Jags figure out how to incorporate him more into the offense. On the flip side, Deebo Samuel has been hit-or-miss in his last four weeks, and I can't justify calling him a top-14 WR in Chicago, despite his WR-6 rnaking.
Finally, I can't justifiably hype Pat Freiermuth (TE-24), because his ranking assumes Eric Ebron will play (he won't). But keep Freiermuth in your back pocket if you don't have a top-10 TE. His upside is terrific if he can officially overtake Ebron going forward (and he pretty much has already). Otherwise, I like Gerald Everett (TE-20) getting more attention as Geno Smith gets a little more comfortable in relief of Russell Wilson. On the flip side, Mike Gesicki (TE-5) is not an obvious start in Buffalo. Opposing TEs are averaging less than nine fantasy points. Although Travis Kelce scored, they held him to a fairly modest 6-57 line. Gesicki will have his hands full.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy