A few weeks ago, tonight's matchup was expected to pit some of the league's best offensive players against each other. Michael Thomas was eligible to return; paired with Alvin Kamara, the two have a history of dominant performances. But last year injuries, quarterback play, and perhaps other factors diminished Thomas, and this year Kamara has taken a deceptively sizable step back despite posting RB1 numbers in points-per-game.
As some of you might remember, I traded Kamara after Week 1 after coming to the conclusion that he would regress, due to defenses focusing more exclusively on containing him. He entered this season averaging 5.0 yards per carry. This year he's averaging 3.9. Last year he had 16 rushing touchdowns. This year he has one. Last year he averaged 2.8 yards before contact and 2.2 yards after contact. This year he's dropped a half yard on both metrics: 2.3 before and 1.7 after. Meanwhile, Kamara is averaging 18.8 rushing attempts per game compared to only 12.5 last year, and 3.0 receptions per game vs. 5.0 last year.
Those stats are not flukes. He is doing less with more. He is an offensive focal point, despite serving best as a situational threat to complement and proficient passing attack. That combination has made Kamara one of the best fantasy RBs these last four seasons. But without a proficient passing attack, there is no combination. He complements little. He is the engine through which the Saints' offense runs. Defenses know this, and his production has suffered as a result.
It will be interesting to see what he does tonight against the Seahawks, which are yielding a relatively high 4.4 yards per carry. With Geno Smith generating much less offense than Russell Wilson could on even a bad day, Kamara should get plenty of opportunities. While Tony Jones is expected to return soon, I do think Marlon Mack would fit in well on this team, as I shared on today's PFN podcast. But for now, it will have to be the Kamara Show. And looking ahead to next week against the Bucs, he probably won't be a reliable top-14 option, which would have seemed crazy a couple months ago.
Elsewhere, I'm comfortable with Marquez Callaway as a flyer. And did you know Jameis Winston has the 8th best QBR (ESPN's total quarterback rating) and QB rating? I didn't until researching it this weekend. He's also averaging a respectable 18.1 fantasy points per game (top 16). There's nothing wrong with streaming Winston based on matchups, despite the perception from some that he's not "the answer" in New Orleans. He has deficiencies, but his strengths are often underappreciated or dismissed.
For the Seahawks, Alex Collins will give it a go after being limited this week. He's facing a Saints defense yielding an impressive 3.3 yards per carry. I made the big mistake of urging managers to downgrade D'Earnest Johnson last Thursday against a solid Denver run D, so maybe I'm making the same mistake here. But at potentially less than 100%, and with Rashaad Penny waiting in the wings, it's hard to trust Collins as an RB2.
And good luck if you're starting D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. Maybe Geno Smith will figure things out. Then again, he's had more than eight seasons to figure things out. Of course we shouldn't be surprised if one of the best receiving tandems in the game comes up empty. Last week they each earned seven targets. Neither exceeded 60 yards. That sounds about right for tonight.
I'm picking the Saints, 23-16. Looking forward to hearing your predictions, and good luck if your week hingest on what happens this evening.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy
As some of you might remember, I traded Kamara after Week 1 after coming to the conclusion that he would regress, due to defenses focusing more exclusively on containing him. He entered this season averaging 5.0 yards per carry. This year he's averaging 3.9. Last year he had 16 rushing touchdowns. This year he has one. Last year he averaged 2.8 yards before contact and 2.2 yards after contact. This year he's dropped a half yard on both metrics: 2.3 before and 1.7 after. Meanwhile, Kamara is averaging 18.8 rushing attempts per game compared to only 12.5 last year, and 3.0 receptions per game vs. 5.0 last year.
Those stats are not flukes. He is doing less with more. He is an offensive focal point, despite serving best as a situational threat to complement and proficient passing attack. That combination has made Kamara one of the best fantasy RBs these last four seasons. But without a proficient passing attack, there is no combination. He complements little. He is the engine through which the Saints' offense runs. Defenses know this, and his production has suffered as a result.
It will be interesting to see what he does tonight against the Seahawks, which are yielding a relatively high 4.4 yards per carry. With Geno Smith generating much less offense than Russell Wilson could on even a bad day, Kamara should get plenty of opportunities. While Tony Jones is expected to return soon, I do think Marlon Mack would fit in well on this team, as I shared on today's PFN podcast. But for now, it will have to be the Kamara Show. And looking ahead to next week against the Bucs, he probably won't be a reliable top-14 option, which would have seemed crazy a couple months ago.
Elsewhere, I'm comfortable with Marquez Callaway as a flyer. And did you know Jameis Winston has the 8th best QBR (ESPN's total quarterback rating) and QB rating? I didn't until researching it this weekend. He's also averaging a respectable 18.1 fantasy points per game (top 16). There's nothing wrong with streaming Winston based on matchups, despite the perception from some that he's not "the answer" in New Orleans. He has deficiencies, but his strengths are often underappreciated or dismissed.
For the Seahawks, Alex Collins will give it a go after being limited this week. He's facing a Saints defense yielding an impressive 3.3 yards per carry. I made the big mistake of urging managers to downgrade D'Earnest Johnson last Thursday against a solid Denver run D, so maybe I'm making the same mistake here. But at potentially less than 100%, and with Rashaad Penny waiting in the wings, it's hard to trust Collins as an RB2.
And good luck if you're starting D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. Maybe Geno Smith will figure things out. Then again, he's had more than eight seasons to figure things out. Of course we shouldn't be surprised if one of the best receiving tandems in the game comes up empty. Last week they each earned seven targets. Neither exceeded 60 yards. That sounds about right for tonight.
I'm picking the Saints, 23-16. Looking forward to hearing your predictions, and good luck if your week hingest on what happens this evening.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy