Last week, eight games were decided by 10 points or less. This week it could be a lot less, and not just because there's one less game. Five fantastic teams are at home against five pretty bad teams: Packers vs. Washington, Patriots vs. Jets, Rams vs. Lions, Cardinals vs. Texans, and Bucs vs. Bears. It's also quite possible the Chiefs, Panthers, and even the Ravens will handle their opponents a bit easier than the point spreads suggest.
Of course, this impacts fantasy. Blowouts are great if your player or players are responsible for the blowout. We have all seen cases where, for example, a running back gets three rushing scores, while the quarterbacks has a quieter 250-1-0 line. It could have been 250-4-0 if things had broken a little differently. But by the fourth quarter, it doesn't matter, as the third-string back enters to help run out the clock.
So let's keep this in mind as we set final lineups. This is one of those strange weeks when several teams could crack 40 points, and that will have a ripple effect on fantasy production.
My DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week was awful last week. I could blame it on the new job, but since the new job is focused exclusively on fantasy football, I have no excuses. This week has to be better. Don't trust me, but hopefully. . . .
QB Lamar Jackson (FanDuel: $8,400) -- Last Sunday, three aged RBs stole Jackson's thunder en route to a 28-point victory. The Ravens' franchise QB should bounce back against a sub-par Cincy D.
RB Aaron Jones ($8,500) -- While I'm not thrilled with this pick, Jones is safe. Green Bay should run over Washington, literally and figuratively. If you want upside, Jones and the more expensive Derrick Henry are the best calls.
RB Chuba Hubbard ($7,300) -- Carolina has to bounce back. Losing close games to Dallas, Philly, and Minnesota are excusable. Getting shut down by the Giants would amount to a crisis. Remember, their last four games are against the Bucs (twice), Bills, and Saints. If they're not 9-4 heading into the homestretch, their postseason hopes are almost finished. Expect a heavy dose of D.J. Moore and Hubbard today.
WR D.J. Moore ($7,700) -- Speaking of Moore . . .
WR Terry McLaurin ($7,200) -- Ineffective in two of his last three games. Some (most?) DFS'ers would be skittish about starting him. I'm not. Jaire Alexander reportedly remains sidelined. The Packers' D is beatable, and McLaurin is Washington's biggest aerial threat. To compete, they have to find ways to feed him.
WR Jaylen Waddle ($5,900) -- The price is right. Although Preston Williams and DeVante Parker could return, Atlanta's middling defense and Waddle's rapid ascension as a legit NFL starter make him a great value play.
TE Ian Thomas ($4,500) -- Again, the price is right. Look, if I knew early before 6:00am today that Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton were sitting, I'd recommend a cheap Dante Pettis as the #3 WR and a better TE than Thomas. But I don't have that luxury. So Thomas it is.
FLEX J.D. McKissic ($5,700) -- So good, and so needed. One of last year's best non-bellcow fantasy RBs. He's headed in that direction again this year.
DST Patriots ($4,800) -- A disappointing unit this season, and also in a prime get-right spot against the Jets.
Good luck today.
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- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
Of course, this impacts fantasy. Blowouts are great if your player or players are responsible for the blowout. We have all seen cases where, for example, a running back gets three rushing scores, while the quarterbacks has a quieter 250-1-0 line. It could have been 250-4-0 if things had broken a little differently. But by the fourth quarter, it doesn't matter, as the third-string back enters to help run out the clock.
So let's keep this in mind as we set final lineups. This is one of those strange weeks when several teams could crack 40 points, and that will have a ripple effect on fantasy production.
My DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week was awful last week. I could blame it on the new job, but since the new job is focused exclusively on fantasy football, I have no excuses. This week has to be better. Don't trust me, but hopefully. . . .
QB Lamar Jackson (FanDuel: $8,400) -- Last Sunday, three aged RBs stole Jackson's thunder en route to a 28-point victory. The Ravens' franchise QB should bounce back against a sub-par Cincy D.
RB Aaron Jones ($8,500) -- While I'm not thrilled with this pick, Jones is safe. Green Bay should run over Washington, literally and figuratively. If you want upside, Jones and the more expensive Derrick Henry are the best calls.
RB Chuba Hubbard ($7,300) -- Carolina has to bounce back. Losing close games to Dallas, Philly, and Minnesota are excusable. Getting shut down by the Giants would amount to a crisis. Remember, their last four games are against the Bucs (twice), Bills, and Saints. If they're not 9-4 heading into the homestretch, their postseason hopes are almost finished. Expect a heavy dose of D.J. Moore and Hubbard today.
WR D.J. Moore ($7,700) -- Speaking of Moore . . .
WR Terry McLaurin ($7,200) -- Ineffective in two of his last three games. Some (most?) DFS'ers would be skittish about starting him. I'm not. Jaire Alexander reportedly remains sidelined. The Packers' D is beatable, and McLaurin is Washington's biggest aerial threat. To compete, they have to find ways to feed him.
WR Jaylen Waddle ($5,900) -- The price is right. Although Preston Williams and DeVante Parker could return, Atlanta's middling defense and Waddle's rapid ascension as a legit NFL starter make him a great value play.
TE Ian Thomas ($4,500) -- Again, the price is right. Look, if I knew early before 6:00am today that Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton were sitting, I'd recommend a cheap Dante Pettis as the #3 WR and a better TE than Thomas. But I don't have that luxury. So Thomas it is.
FLEX J.D. McKissic ($5,700) -- So good, and so needed. One of last year's best non-bellcow fantasy RBs. He's headed in that direction again this year.
DST Patriots ($4,800) -- A disappointing unit this season, and also in a prime get-right spot against the Jets.
Good luck today.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy