Two things before getting into Week 7 contrarian predictions. First, some of you are getting crushed by injuries and bye weeks. Know that I feel it, too. My three starting WRs are out: CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen, and now Antonio Brown (injured). The first few weeks of the season, many of us play the guys we drafted. At this point in the season, some of us are forced to play the guys we added off waivers.
There are some potentially huge bargains out there. Tommy Garrett and I have referenced some of them on our podcast this week. Others are highlighted here and on the Pro Football Network website. This is a time to get creative and go big. A backup RB on a team that should dominate this week could find the end zone. A backup WR forced to start because of injuries could get 8+ targets.
Also, PFN is launching a fantasy newsletter, delivered to subscribers at 6:00am on Sundays and Tuesdays. I enjoyed writing the first one, which will hit tomorrow morning. It's called "Table for 6." Over the years I've learned from many of you that it's that there's little time to track what players are doing through the week. That's because you have lives (and clearly I don't). So rather than cram in as much as I can about as many players as possible, each newsletter focuses on six players I'm tracking closely that day--six players whose values could shift dramatically, imminently.
If you want to receive this newsletter on Sunday and Thursday mornings, you can subscribe here (twitter.com/PFNFantasy) or here (www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy?via=twitter-profile-webview). It's obviously free, does not overlap with content here, and has the same focus on value that I always try to bring to this page.
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Now to this week's contrarian predictions. Last week I went 7-for-13. While players like Trevor Lawrence and Adam Humphries did not come through as expected, I hit on guys like J.D. McKissic and Ricky Seals-Jones (undervalued), as well as D.K. Metcalf (overvalued). My 2021 record is now 38-for-72 (53%). Let's see how Week 7 works out:
At quarterback, I like the Miami-Atlanta matchup. Two bottom-6 pass defenses facing off. What could be better? Tua Tagovailoa (expert-consensus QB-13 ranking) and Matt Ryan (QB-11) both have strong QB1 potential; I'd start either one as a Week 7 bargain. On the flip side, I'm not sure why Justin Fields is ranked 16th against Tampa Bay. Next season? Absolutely. But the Bears' running game will be largely neutralized, and their passing attack is ranked #31 in the NFL. This is not a time to stream Fields.
At running back, I've been pushing Rhamondre Stevenson all week, so why stop now. His RB-38 ranking doesn't factor in the Patriots likely winning comfortably against the Jets, which should mean more run for their rookie back. I like A.J. Dillon (RB-30) for similar reasons against Washington. On the flip side, D'Andre Swift (RB-6) is mis-cast as an automatic RB1 against the Rams, while Joe Mixon (RB-9) makes me nervous in what probably will be an under-14-point performance in Baltimore. Oh, and Mike Davis (RB-15) needs to score to crack the RB2 circle, and I think the odds are against him given the return of Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage.
At wideout, A.J. Green (WR-38) and Marquez Callaway (WR-37) are terrific flyers. I also like the largely under-the-radar Nico Collins (WR-60), who's pushing to become Houston's permanent top-2 receiving option. On the flip side, Deebo Samuel seems like a stretch at his WR-6 ranking. And for the second straight week, experts are too bullish about D.K. Metcalf (WR-16) with Geno Smith at the helm.
Finally, Tyler Higbee (TE-10) could help some managers win this week. The matchup against Detroit is nearly perfect, and his catch rate (88%) is higher than any other TE with 25+ targets. On the flip side, are we confident Dallas Goedert (TE-6) will elevate after Zach Ertz's departure? A little bit, sure. But I don't think Philadelphia's sub-middling passing attack can generate a near-elite TE, at least not this year.
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Pro Football Network fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
Listen to the PFN fantasy podcast Monday, Tuesday, and Friday -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
There are some potentially huge bargains out there. Tommy Garrett and I have referenced some of them on our podcast this week. Others are highlighted here and on the Pro Football Network website. This is a time to get creative and go big. A backup RB on a team that should dominate this week could find the end zone. A backup WR forced to start because of injuries could get 8+ targets.
Also, PFN is launching a fantasy newsletter, delivered to subscribers at 6:00am on Sundays and Tuesdays. I enjoyed writing the first one, which will hit tomorrow morning. It's called "Table for 6." Over the years I've learned from many of you that it's that there's little time to track what players are doing through the week. That's because you have lives (and clearly I don't). So rather than cram in as much as I can about as many players as possible, each newsletter focuses on six players I'm tracking closely that day--six players whose values could shift dramatically, imminently.
If you want to receive this newsletter on Sunday and Thursday mornings, you can subscribe here (twitter.com/PFNFantasy) or here (www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy?via=twitter-profile-webview). It's obviously free, does not overlap with content here, and has the same focus on value that I always try to bring to this page.
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Now to this week's contrarian predictions. Last week I went 7-for-13. While players like Trevor Lawrence and Adam Humphries did not come through as expected, I hit on guys like J.D. McKissic and Ricky Seals-Jones (undervalued), as well as D.K. Metcalf (overvalued). My 2021 record is now 38-for-72 (53%). Let's see how Week 7 works out:
At quarterback, I like the Miami-Atlanta matchup. Two bottom-6 pass defenses facing off. What could be better? Tua Tagovailoa (expert-consensus QB-13 ranking) and Matt Ryan (QB-11) both have strong QB1 potential; I'd start either one as a Week 7 bargain. On the flip side, I'm not sure why Justin Fields is ranked 16th against Tampa Bay. Next season? Absolutely. But the Bears' running game will be largely neutralized, and their passing attack is ranked #31 in the NFL. This is not a time to stream Fields.
At running back, I've been pushing Rhamondre Stevenson all week, so why stop now. His RB-38 ranking doesn't factor in the Patriots likely winning comfortably against the Jets, which should mean more run for their rookie back. I like A.J. Dillon (RB-30) for similar reasons against Washington. On the flip side, D'Andre Swift (RB-6) is mis-cast as an automatic RB1 against the Rams, while Joe Mixon (RB-9) makes me nervous in what probably will be an under-14-point performance in Baltimore. Oh, and Mike Davis (RB-15) needs to score to crack the RB2 circle, and I think the odds are against him given the return of Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage.
At wideout, A.J. Green (WR-38) and Marquez Callaway (WR-37) are terrific flyers. I also like the largely under-the-radar Nico Collins (WR-60), who's pushing to become Houston's permanent top-2 receiving option. On the flip side, Deebo Samuel seems like a stretch at his WR-6 ranking. And for the second straight week, experts are too bullish about D.K. Metcalf (WR-16) with Geno Smith at the helm.
Finally, Tyler Higbee (TE-10) could help some managers win this week. The matchup against Detroit is nearly perfect, and his catch rate (88%) is higher than any other TE with 25+ targets. On the flip side, are we confident Dallas Goedert (TE-6) will elevate after Zach Ertz's departure? A little bit, sure. But I don't think Philadelphia's sub-middling passing attack can generate a near-elite TE, at least not this year.
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Pro Football Network fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
Listen to the PFN fantasy podcast Monday, Tuesday, and Friday -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372