20 seasons after winning his first Super Bowl, Tom Brady is the #1 fantasy QB. For context, 20 seasons after John Elway won his first Super Bowl, he signed Brock Osweiler. So . . . there's that.
I'm kicking myself for not drafting Brady, which seems obvious to everyone who wished they did, too. Seems so obvious now, doesn't it? He was the #8 fantasy QB last season despite not having Antonio Brown until midseason and losing Chris Godwin for four games. More than that, Tampa Bay's schedule this season was one of the league's easiest (based on last year's win-loss records). So of *course* Brady had room to improve. In fact, his 26.9 fantasy points per game this year is nearly one point higher than Patrick Mahomes' record-setting clip in 2018.
Damaged thumb? Who cares. Brady spent the better part of a decade on the injured list since his 2008 season-ending injury, and still started every game (or at least every game where he wasn't suspended). He'll be out there tonight, and nothing suggests he'll be anything other than dominant against the Eagles' middling defense. Darius Slay might partially-to-mostly shut down Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, as he has multiple #1 receivers this year. But Philly probably can't contend with the coming offensive onslaught. Expect a heavy dose of whoever Slay isn't shadowing (if anyone knows, give a shout) and Antonio Brown. Cameron Brate or O.J. Howard could step up, though clearly neither has been able to come close to filling Rob Gronkowski's shoes.
Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette remains a pleasant surprise this year, while Ronald Jones has been an unpleasant disappointment. I don't understand how rapidly his playability has declined, but it is what it is. And Gio Bernard will try to make it three games in a row with a score. He's a dart throw as always.
Meanwhile, the Eagles will face a Tampa Bay defense that’s been stout against the run but anemic against the pass, no thanks to a rash of injuries to their secondary. They're yielding the third most passing touchdowns in the NFL (13) and the fourth highest completion rate (72.9 percent). Additionally, they're tied for the league-worst in passing first downs (81). The Bucs can be worn down through the air, and that is Philadelphia’s best path to victory, as Tampa Bay’s run defense is arguably the league’s best (yielding only 2.9 yards per carry).
This spells bad news for Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell, though one of them could benefit from catch-up mode, as both are adept pass-catchers. Still, this is a game where Philly's receivers are better bets than running backs--not unlike other weeks this season, come to think of it. Devonta Smith is a must-start. Jalen Reagor is about one bad game away from being droppable in most leagues. Quez Watkins is intriguing if he continues carving out a #2 wideout role. And assuming Dallas Goedert sits, Zach Ertz is a great TE streamer--which is too bad, because I'm playing against him this week.
And all this means Jalen Hurts needs to be in nearly every fantasy lineup. With rumblings that the Eagle brass were considering trading for Deshaun Watson, this became a prove-it year in Hurts' first full season as a starter. Not fair for him, though this is a business after all. But Hurts has risen to the occasion, and then some. He is the real deal and was a fantasy draft steal, not unlike his 44-year-old opponent.
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Monday-Tuesday-Friday fantasy podcast: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
I'm kicking myself for not drafting Brady, which seems obvious to everyone who wished they did, too. Seems so obvious now, doesn't it? He was the #8 fantasy QB last season despite not having Antonio Brown until midseason and losing Chris Godwin for four games. More than that, Tampa Bay's schedule this season was one of the league's easiest (based on last year's win-loss records). So of *course* Brady had room to improve. In fact, his 26.9 fantasy points per game this year is nearly one point higher than Patrick Mahomes' record-setting clip in 2018.
Damaged thumb? Who cares. Brady spent the better part of a decade on the injured list since his 2008 season-ending injury, and still started every game (or at least every game where he wasn't suspended). He'll be out there tonight, and nothing suggests he'll be anything other than dominant against the Eagles' middling defense. Darius Slay might partially-to-mostly shut down Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, as he has multiple #1 receivers this year. But Philly probably can't contend with the coming offensive onslaught. Expect a heavy dose of whoever Slay isn't shadowing (if anyone knows, give a shout) and Antonio Brown. Cameron Brate or O.J. Howard could step up, though clearly neither has been able to come close to filling Rob Gronkowski's shoes.
Meanwhile, Leonard Fournette remains a pleasant surprise this year, while Ronald Jones has been an unpleasant disappointment. I don't understand how rapidly his playability has declined, but it is what it is. And Gio Bernard will try to make it three games in a row with a score. He's a dart throw as always.
Meanwhile, the Eagles will face a Tampa Bay defense that’s been stout against the run but anemic against the pass, no thanks to a rash of injuries to their secondary. They're yielding the third most passing touchdowns in the NFL (13) and the fourth highest completion rate (72.9 percent). Additionally, they're tied for the league-worst in passing first downs (81). The Bucs can be worn down through the air, and that is Philadelphia’s best path to victory, as Tampa Bay’s run defense is arguably the league’s best (yielding only 2.9 yards per carry).
This spells bad news for Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell, though one of them could benefit from catch-up mode, as both are adept pass-catchers. Still, this is a game where Philly's receivers are better bets than running backs--not unlike other weeks this season, come to think of it. Devonta Smith is a must-start. Jalen Reagor is about one bad game away from being droppable in most leagues. Quez Watkins is intriguing if he continues carving out a #2 wideout role. And assuming Dallas Goedert sits, Zach Ertz is a great TE streamer--which is too bad, because I'm playing against him this week.
And all this means Jalen Hurts needs to be in nearly every fantasy lineup. With rumblings that the Eagle brass were considering trading for Deshaun Watson, this became a prove-it year in Hurts' first full season as a starter. Not fair for him, though this is a business after all. But Hurts has risen to the occasion, and then some. He is the real deal and was a fantasy draft steal, not unlike his 44-year-old opponent.
---
Monday-Tuesday-Friday fantasy podcast: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372