Six weeks in the books. 12 to go. (Is it really 12?) So what happened last night, and why should we care? (We should care.)
First, hats off to the three of you (out of more than 40 of you) who picked the Titans to win. Brett Skye Thomaswick wins the grand prize (whatever that is) for predicting a 31-29 Tennessee victory. Matt Ferguson (30-24) and Ernest Pinedo (23-20) earn honorable mentions.
Second, let's get this out of the way: last year Derrick Henry had 2,027 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. This year he's on pace for 2,219 and 28. I keep beating the same empty drum--empty in that my words are meaningless. Henry is defying the logic I carried into this season. The same logic I used to warn against Dalvin Cook, and against CMC last year, apparently doesn't apply to Henry. I get that he's physically dominant. Other RBs have been similarly built (Steven Jackson, for one), and they haven't been able to hold up consistently after high-usage seasons. The fact that Henry is doing better than ever . . . simply incredible.
On the other hand, Tennessee's passing game remains mostly broken, though it came alive in the fourth quarter. We might (deservedly) credit Buffalo's defense. But there's more to it, obviously. With Julio Jones and A.J. Brown back, Tannehill should have been able to manufacture more offense. Some of the throws I saw were awful. His 48-yard completion to Julio was a lucky break. Brown finally got more attention in the second half and breathed life into what has become a major team weakness.
Tannehill is on pace for his worst season in eight years. If he can't help right the ship next week against Kansas City's awful defense, he'll next face the Colts, Rams, and Saints. Julio and Brown have a tough road ahead.
And back to Julio: he exited with a hamstring injury. Doesn't this feel like a doomed season for the 32-year-old? We have witnessed receivers forgo declines until their mid-30's, but for many, the early 30's signal the beginning of their post-prime years. We knew "2019 Julio" probably wouldn't resurface. But it's painful to see such greatness collapse so quickly. At this point, if he's expected to miss at least a couple weeks, some managers have to consider dropping him to make room for higher-upside talent.
For Buffalo, my PFN colleague Jason Katz warned readers about Zack Moss yesterday. He and I have similar views on TD-dependent players (my focus yesterday was on Emmanuel Sanders' unsustainble scoring). Moss and Devin Singletary will remain interchangeable backfield parts, and that makes them risky weekly starts. However (a big "however"), their next three games after their Week 7 bye are against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Jets. So there's a window to capitalize. After that, the schedule gets very tough--or as the retiring actor Michael Caine might say, "very tough indeed."
In the passing game, Josh Allen was exceptional. And starting Week 8 he will continue to be exceptional. Then from weeks 11-16 he'll face the Colts, Saints, Patriots (twice), Bucs, and Panthers. He's defense-proof, and at the same time, his worst showing was against his most difficult matchup thus far (the Steelers Week 1). It will be interesting to see how he fares against fairly elite defenses.
Elsewhere, Stefon Diggs came up big, while Emmanuel Sanders surprised me by leading the receiving corps in yards. I warned yesterday that his touchdown-heavy fantasy production could not be sustained, and also urged managers to be patient with the Cole Beasley, who was due for some scores: www.profootballnetwork.com/bills-wr-buy-low-sell-high-2021-nflwk-6/. Sanders was producing like a low-end WR2, which was better than Diggs. It was hard to envision that continuing. Similarly, Beasley was on track to match last year's targets and receptions; the difference was a lack of scoring. Once his touchdowns picks up, he'd return to streaming respectability.
This is why we can't look at stats for what they are; we have to look at them for what they might become.
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Listen to the PFN fantasy podcast Monday, Tuesday, and Friday: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
First, hats off to the three of you (out of more than 40 of you) who picked the Titans to win. Brett Skye Thomaswick wins the grand prize (whatever that is) for predicting a 31-29 Tennessee victory. Matt Ferguson (30-24) and Ernest Pinedo (23-20) earn honorable mentions.
Second, let's get this out of the way: last year Derrick Henry had 2,027 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. This year he's on pace for 2,219 and 28. I keep beating the same empty drum--empty in that my words are meaningless. Henry is defying the logic I carried into this season. The same logic I used to warn against Dalvin Cook, and against CMC last year, apparently doesn't apply to Henry. I get that he's physically dominant. Other RBs have been similarly built (Steven Jackson, for one), and they haven't been able to hold up consistently after high-usage seasons. The fact that Henry is doing better than ever . . . simply incredible.
On the other hand, Tennessee's passing game remains mostly broken, though it came alive in the fourth quarter. We might (deservedly) credit Buffalo's defense. But there's more to it, obviously. With Julio Jones and A.J. Brown back, Tannehill should have been able to manufacture more offense. Some of the throws I saw were awful. His 48-yard completion to Julio was a lucky break. Brown finally got more attention in the second half and breathed life into what has become a major team weakness.
Tannehill is on pace for his worst season in eight years. If he can't help right the ship next week against Kansas City's awful defense, he'll next face the Colts, Rams, and Saints. Julio and Brown have a tough road ahead.
And back to Julio: he exited with a hamstring injury. Doesn't this feel like a doomed season for the 32-year-old? We have witnessed receivers forgo declines until their mid-30's, but for many, the early 30's signal the beginning of their post-prime years. We knew "2019 Julio" probably wouldn't resurface. But it's painful to see such greatness collapse so quickly. At this point, if he's expected to miss at least a couple weeks, some managers have to consider dropping him to make room for higher-upside talent.
For Buffalo, my PFN colleague Jason Katz warned readers about Zack Moss yesterday. He and I have similar views on TD-dependent players (my focus yesterday was on Emmanuel Sanders' unsustainble scoring). Moss and Devin Singletary will remain interchangeable backfield parts, and that makes them risky weekly starts. However (a big "however"), their next three games after their Week 7 bye are against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Jets. So there's a window to capitalize. After that, the schedule gets very tough--or as the retiring actor Michael Caine might say, "very tough indeed."
In the passing game, Josh Allen was exceptional. And starting Week 8 he will continue to be exceptional. Then from weeks 11-16 he'll face the Colts, Saints, Patriots (twice), Bucs, and Panthers. He's defense-proof, and at the same time, his worst showing was against his most difficult matchup thus far (the Steelers Week 1). It will be interesting to see how he fares against fairly elite defenses.
Elsewhere, Stefon Diggs came up big, while Emmanuel Sanders surprised me by leading the receiving corps in yards. I warned yesterday that his touchdown-heavy fantasy production could not be sustained, and also urged managers to be patient with the Cole Beasley, who was due for some scores: www.profootballnetwork.com/bills-wr-buy-low-sell-high-2021-nflwk-6/. Sanders was producing like a low-end WR2, which was better than Diggs. It was hard to envision that continuing. Similarly, Beasley was on track to match last year's targets and receptions; the difference was a lack of scoring. Once his touchdowns picks up, he'd return to streaming respectability.
This is why we can't look at stats for what they are; we have to look at them for what they might become.
---
Listen to the PFN fantasy podcast Monday, Tuesday, and Friday: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372