It's Saturday, so here are my contrarian bargains and busts for this, one of the strangest weeks in recent NFL memory. A lot of injured players. A lot of questionable players. Last week I went 5-for-12, bringing my season total to 31-for-59 (53%). As always, these are the opposite of "sure things" and are nowhere close to 50/50 calls. Consensus expert rankings say one thing, and I'm saying something different.
At QB, I really like Trevor Lawrence this week, and believe he can help a lot of fantasy managers for most of the next five weeks (soft schedule). His QB-15 consensus ranking is more floor than ceiling. Start him if you don't have a near-automatic top-10 option available. And I get that Ben Roethlisberger is headed toward one of his worst NFL seasons. But haven't we seen the worst we're going to see this year? With few exceptions, most of his remaining games are versus bottom-half defenses, and he still have three terrific offensive weapons at his disposal. He's worth a flyer at his QB-23 ranking.
On the flip side, I do not trust Kyler Murray (QB-4). Starting him this week in my league bcause Cory Nedd wisely added Lawrence (thanks Cory). Anticipating no more than 18-19 points from Murray in Cleveland, and 18-19 would be a nice surprise.
Who doesn't love an RB dart throw? We haven't truly lived a glamorous fantasy lifestyle until we've started an RB5 in the belief he *might* get a cheap score and net double-digit points. Demetric Felton (RB-57) fits that mold. Cleveland's third-string back could earn some scraps behind Kareem Hunt (who happens to be questionable) with Nick Chubb declared out yesterday. In fairness, expert rankings have not yet caught up the Chubb news, but also in fairness, no one is claiming the sixth-round rookie is anywhere close to "startable." But I really like him this weekend. In his final three years at UCLA, Felton caught 97 balls across 27 games. In college, 3.6 receptions per game is highly unusual for an RB. All six of his touches this year have been receptions. If you don't have an RB3+ to plug in, Felton is a worthwhile Hail Mary.
Elsewhere, as I highlighted on yesterday's Pro Football Network podcast, I'm big on J.D. McKissic (RB-27). Last weekend he was recovering from an ankle injury. Washington needs him to bounce back at a time when nearly every starter is either sidelined or ailing. On the flip side, I don't trust Aaron Jones in Chicago at his RB-5 ranking, especially with A.J. Dillon picking up steam. And why is Zeke Elliott an RB-3 this week? The hosting Patriots are yielding only 3.8 yards per carry on defense and a near-league-low three rushing touchdowns. With Tony Pollard ready and able to take over if needed, I don't see a nicked-up Zeke as an RB1.
At wideout, there are more decent flyers this week than there are bench spots. I guarantee it. While these are not part of my contrarian predictions, Dyami Brown (WR-82) could step up for Washington, just as Marquise Goodwin (WR-92) could for Chicago if Allen Robinson sits. Keep an eye on the injury reports, and you might find some guys elevated to starter roles overnight. In the meantime, on the prediction front, I like Preston Williams (WR-67) and Adam Humphries (WR-62) cracking the top 45 in favorable matchups, and Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR-49) is painfully undervalued, as if nearly every expert forgot he exists. If he's available in your league, please pick him up. And Laviska Shenault (WR-39) is a prime bounce-back candidate after inexplicably catching one ball on only three targets last week.
On the flip side, you're playing with fire if you're starting D.K. Metcalf (WR-14) as anything more than a TD-dependent WR3. With Geno Smith at the helm in Pittsburgh, this offense is in trouble. And while Ja'Marr Chase was my favorite Cincinnati receiver this summer, he's currently deeply overvalued, and his WR-8 ranking is based more on herd mentality that reality. Joe Mixon's touches have continually declined each game since Week 1. He's now healthy and should anchor a more active rushing attack. Meanwhile Tee Higgins is ramping back up after his two-game injury hiatus. Chase will tail off this week.
Finally, Washington probably will need the underappreciated Ricky Seals-Jones (TE-12) if they hope to keep pace with Kansas City. And on the flip side, it's hard to trust Noah Fant as his TE-7 ranking. He's averaging 4.2 receptions for 35.1 yards. While the two scores are nice, I'd never recommend starting a supposedly top-8 TE averaging less than eight points a game if you don't count the scores. Targets and yardage are fairly predictable, within reason. Touchdowns for all but the elite TEs are crapshoots. Fant is as big a risk as any top 12-16 TE.
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Fantasy Podcast: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
At QB, I really like Trevor Lawrence this week, and believe he can help a lot of fantasy managers for most of the next five weeks (soft schedule). His QB-15 consensus ranking is more floor than ceiling. Start him if you don't have a near-automatic top-10 option available. And I get that Ben Roethlisberger is headed toward one of his worst NFL seasons. But haven't we seen the worst we're going to see this year? With few exceptions, most of his remaining games are versus bottom-half defenses, and he still have three terrific offensive weapons at his disposal. He's worth a flyer at his QB-23 ranking.
On the flip side, I do not trust Kyler Murray (QB-4). Starting him this week in my league bcause Cory Nedd wisely added Lawrence (thanks Cory). Anticipating no more than 18-19 points from Murray in Cleveland, and 18-19 would be a nice surprise.
Who doesn't love an RB dart throw? We haven't truly lived a glamorous fantasy lifestyle until we've started an RB5 in the belief he *might* get a cheap score and net double-digit points. Demetric Felton (RB-57) fits that mold. Cleveland's third-string back could earn some scraps behind Kareem Hunt (who happens to be questionable) with Nick Chubb declared out yesterday. In fairness, expert rankings have not yet caught up the Chubb news, but also in fairness, no one is claiming the sixth-round rookie is anywhere close to "startable." But I really like him this weekend. In his final three years at UCLA, Felton caught 97 balls across 27 games. In college, 3.6 receptions per game is highly unusual for an RB. All six of his touches this year have been receptions. If you don't have an RB3+ to plug in, Felton is a worthwhile Hail Mary.
Elsewhere, as I highlighted on yesterday's Pro Football Network podcast, I'm big on J.D. McKissic (RB-27). Last weekend he was recovering from an ankle injury. Washington needs him to bounce back at a time when nearly every starter is either sidelined or ailing. On the flip side, I don't trust Aaron Jones in Chicago at his RB-5 ranking, especially with A.J. Dillon picking up steam. And why is Zeke Elliott an RB-3 this week? The hosting Patriots are yielding only 3.8 yards per carry on defense and a near-league-low three rushing touchdowns. With Tony Pollard ready and able to take over if needed, I don't see a nicked-up Zeke as an RB1.
At wideout, there are more decent flyers this week than there are bench spots. I guarantee it. While these are not part of my contrarian predictions, Dyami Brown (WR-82) could step up for Washington, just as Marquise Goodwin (WR-92) could for Chicago if Allen Robinson sits. Keep an eye on the injury reports, and you might find some guys elevated to starter roles overnight. In the meantime, on the prediction front, I like Preston Williams (WR-67) and Adam Humphries (WR-62) cracking the top 45 in favorable matchups, and Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR-49) is painfully undervalued, as if nearly every expert forgot he exists. If he's available in your league, please pick him up. And Laviska Shenault (WR-39) is a prime bounce-back candidate after inexplicably catching one ball on only three targets last week.
On the flip side, you're playing with fire if you're starting D.K. Metcalf (WR-14) as anything more than a TD-dependent WR3. With Geno Smith at the helm in Pittsburgh, this offense is in trouble. And while Ja'Marr Chase was my favorite Cincinnati receiver this summer, he's currently deeply overvalued, and his WR-8 ranking is based more on herd mentality that reality. Joe Mixon's touches have continually declined each game since Week 1. He's now healthy and should anchor a more active rushing attack. Meanwhile Tee Higgins is ramping back up after his two-game injury hiatus. Chase will tail off this week.
Finally, Washington probably will need the underappreciated Ricky Seals-Jones (TE-12) if they hope to keep pace with Kansas City. And on the flip side, it's hard to trust Noah Fant as his TE-7 ranking. He's averaging 4.2 receptions for 35.1 yards. While the two scores are nice, I'd never recommend starting a supposedly top-8 TE averaging less than eight points a game if you don't count the scores. Targets and yardage are fairly predictable, within reason. Touchdowns for all but the elite TEs are crapshoots. Fant is as big a risk as any top 12-16 TE.
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Fantasy Podcast: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372