Here's my slate of Week 5 contrarian bargains and busts. Last week I went 8-3. For new people, that means I challenged the conventional wisdom of 11 expert-consensus rankings. Like the 20th-ranked Matt Ryan, who finished the week #3. Like the 38th-ranked J.D. McKissic, who finished #14. Like the 35th-ranked Devonta Smith, who finished #12. On this page and on Pro Football Network I recommended the 59th-ranked Jeremy McNichols as a nothing-to-lose flyer, and he finished 18th.
These guys exist every week. The names often change. But the surprises are bankable. My job is to help identify the ones that virtually no one else has identified. On the season I'm now 26-for-47 (55%). Here are my recommendations for Week 5. As always, I won't make predictions on players who are severely undervalued or overvalued because of late-week injuries to other starters.
Jameis Winston (expert-consensus QB-28) is a surprisingly good deep-league streamer this week. I like how Deonte Harris has stepped up. Marquez Callaway keeps clawing for relevance. And Alvin Kamara's passing-game usage (only 10 catches) has to pop eventually. So why not against the underperforming Washington defense? On the flip side, Jalen Hurts has been one of this year's biggest QB surprises compared to preseason ADP. But he'll face his toughest challenge in Carolina. I don't trust his QB-8 ranking.
At running back, Ronald Jones should have his best game of the season in a sure-fire lopsided contest. On PFN I think I predicted 42-13, and that might be generous for Miami. Jones is the consensus 45th-ranked RB, which based on last week would put him around seven points. C'mon people, let's be more creative. Think about game flow and second-half usage. Jones is one of my favorite deep bargains of the week. The same goes with J.D. McKissic (RB-37), who somehow has moved up only one spot since last week. He should crack the top 30. On the flip side, Jonathan Taylor (RB-13) is one of the toughest "bellcow" running backs to figure out. It seems like he should be dominating in fantasy. The offense isn't doing him any favors. I don't like him this week in Baltimore.
At wideout, Kadarius Toney (WR-59) is a terrific dart throw. I feel okay making this call on this page, as Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton were never expected to play this week. So experts largely have ranked Toney knowing he'd probably start another game. I also like the underrated Jamison crowder (WR-44) and largely off-the-radar Robby Anderson (WR-42). While we're at it, I traded for Laviska Shenault (WR-34) yesterday on the assumption he'd crack the top 25 Sunday. On the flip side, Terry McLaurin (WR-9) will be no better than a mid-range WR2 in a tough New Orleans matchup.
At tight end, as I wrote on PFN earlier this week, Hayden Hurst (TE-36) is one of those, "Wait, I forgot about him" TE flyers Of the roughly 180 experts compiled on fantasy pros, six people rank him between 18th and 24th, and everyone else has pegged him 26th or worse. I'm banking on top-16 production, which might be helpful for you deep-leaguers. On the flip side, Noah Fant (TE-7) has benefited from two touchdowns in four games, and I don't anticipate TE1 production in Pittsburgh.
These guys exist every week. The names often change. But the surprises are bankable. My job is to help identify the ones that virtually no one else has identified. On the season I'm now 26-for-47 (55%). Here are my recommendations for Week 5. As always, I won't make predictions on players who are severely undervalued or overvalued because of late-week injuries to other starters.
Jameis Winston (expert-consensus QB-28) is a surprisingly good deep-league streamer this week. I like how Deonte Harris has stepped up. Marquez Callaway keeps clawing for relevance. And Alvin Kamara's passing-game usage (only 10 catches) has to pop eventually. So why not against the underperforming Washington defense? On the flip side, Jalen Hurts has been one of this year's biggest QB surprises compared to preseason ADP. But he'll face his toughest challenge in Carolina. I don't trust his QB-8 ranking.
At running back, Ronald Jones should have his best game of the season in a sure-fire lopsided contest. On PFN I think I predicted 42-13, and that might be generous for Miami. Jones is the consensus 45th-ranked RB, which based on last week would put him around seven points. C'mon people, let's be more creative. Think about game flow and second-half usage. Jones is one of my favorite deep bargains of the week. The same goes with J.D. McKissic (RB-37), who somehow has moved up only one spot since last week. He should crack the top 30. On the flip side, Jonathan Taylor (RB-13) is one of the toughest "bellcow" running backs to figure out. It seems like he should be dominating in fantasy. The offense isn't doing him any favors. I don't like him this week in Baltimore.
At wideout, Kadarius Toney (WR-59) is a terrific dart throw. I feel okay making this call on this page, as Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton were never expected to play this week. So experts largely have ranked Toney knowing he'd probably start another game. I also like the underrated Jamison crowder (WR-44) and largely off-the-radar Robby Anderson (WR-42). While we're at it, I traded for Laviska Shenault (WR-34) yesterday on the assumption he'd crack the top 25 Sunday. On the flip side, Terry McLaurin (WR-9) will be no better than a mid-range WR2 in a tough New Orleans matchup.
At tight end, as I wrote on PFN earlier this week, Hayden Hurst (TE-36) is one of those, "Wait, I forgot about him" TE flyers Of the roughly 180 experts compiled on fantasy pros, six people rank him between 18th and 24th, and everyone else has pegged him 26th or worse. I'm banking on top-16 production, which might be helpful for you deep-leaguers. On the flip side, Noah Fant (TE-7) has benefited from two touchdowns in four games, and I don't anticipate TE1 production in Pittsburgh.