Chris Polen wins the prizeless prize for nearly predicting last night's final score. When he guessed 25-20, I thought about asking "Why 25?" I actually looked this up: only 17 times in NFL history has a winning team scored 25 points. So yeah, what was Chris thinking? But he came closest, so who am I to judge. Well done, Chris. Honorable mention: Derrick Garceau (27-24). And I'll accept a special honorable mention for guessing 24-17. (Truth be told, if the Jags had won 49-0, I still would have given myself a special honorable mention.)
At times last night it looked like Trevor Lawrence and James Robinson were toying with Cincinnati's defense, with handoffs and fake handoffs leading to nice chunks of yards seemingly anytime the Jags needed it. This was easily the most in-control Lawrence has looked since the preseason. Doesn't help the fantasy cause, but it was a move in the right direction in a tough road environment against a capable opponent. Joe Burrow also deserves credit for rebounding after a dismal first half. Unfortunately, he won't get the Jaguars again. About half of his remaining games are against very good defenses.
D.J. Chark's brutal injury could mark the end of his time in Jacksonville. A breakout star in 2019, Chark regressed last season and failed to catch fire in this, the final year on his rookie contract. In a perfect world he'll be the #2 next year in a bottom-5 receiving corps. In his absence last night, Laviska Shenault stepped up. He and the surprisingly quiet Marvin Jones are instantly more valuable--not only because this is now a more top-heavy passing attack, but also because Lawrence should improve as he acclimates to the NFL. Given his likely current value, Shenault is a great buy-low candidate.
I did not expect to see James Robinson outshine Joe Mixon. Not that Mixon was worse from an efficiency standpoint, but Robinson benefited significantly from Carlos Hyde's last-minute benching. If this is a sign of things to come, Robinson's floor will bump upward. And Mixon once again demonstrated why he's one of the least-appreciated top-14 RBs out there. He's a slightly lesser version of Nick Chubb with fewer scoring chances. Believe it or not, Mixon is on pace for over 1,400 rushing yards if this were a 16-game season. If he hits 1,500, many people will be shocked, but shouldn't be.
And C.J. Uzomah . . . talk about stealing some fantasy thunder. Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase were must-start receivers. But Uzomah came out of nowhere with two long touchdowns. Keep firing up Chase and Boyd, of course. And stay wary of Uzomah, especially if Tee Higgins returns next week.
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I also want to share this week's contrarian bargains and busts a day early. Tomorrow I'm making a big announcement on this page and want to highlight these players before Sunday. I'm 18-18 on the season. Remember these are contrarian picks, not obvious picks. If a WR has a consensus #43 ranking, and I think he'll be worth starting, and he finishes in the top 30, that's a hit. If I think the #2 RB will be a relative bust, and he finishes 10th . . . well that's a miss. The RB still did well. If my picks aren't helping people make smarter bold decisions, then they don't count as correct.
With that in mind, at QB I'm pushing Matt Ryan (QB-20 consensus-expert ranking) at home against an underperforming Washington defense. Everything is on the line for the 1-2 Falcons. Win this weekend and then next week against the Jets, and they're still in the hunt despite a fairly tough remaining schedule. It's *possible* they could finish 9-7. But lose to Washington, and the numbers just don't add up for a postseason run. Expect much more of Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. On the flip side, Kyler Murray (QB-3) won't finish in the top 8. There are streamers out there who can give you more upside.
At RB, my extreme longshot pick is Jeremy McNichols (RB-59), who's the de facto backup to the already overworked Derrick Henry. Against the Jets, McNichols realistically could net 7-9 touches and RB4+ production, making him a worthwhile desperation play in deep leagues. Also recommend investing in J.D. McKissic (RB-38) because of his pop potential in a favorable matchup. On the flip side, Najee Harris (RB-7) needs another 30+ touches in Green Bay to be a top-16 option, and I don't see it. Pittsburgh is in a heap of trouble.
At wideout, nearly everyone is overlooking Marquez Callaway (WR-58), just as they did all summer. He's been ramping up slowly each game and should be Jameis Winston's #1 target until Michael Thomas returns. Jalen Reagor (WR-56) and Devonta Smith (WR-35) will both be startable, with Smith breaking out. On the flip side, Chris Godwin has scored in every game despite averaging only six targets in his last two. His WR-16 ranking assumes another touchdown, and I think the odds are against him.
At TE, if you don't have a TE1 on hand, Gerald Everett (TE-35) is the ideal dart throw if he gets off the COVID list. I also like Mike Gesicki (TE-15) getting the attention he deserves. On the flip side, I get that Jared Cook (TE-12) could be a TE1 this week. But his path to relevance is narrow. I wouldn't want to bet on him.
At times last night it looked like Trevor Lawrence and James Robinson were toying with Cincinnati's defense, with handoffs and fake handoffs leading to nice chunks of yards seemingly anytime the Jags needed it. This was easily the most in-control Lawrence has looked since the preseason. Doesn't help the fantasy cause, but it was a move in the right direction in a tough road environment against a capable opponent. Joe Burrow also deserves credit for rebounding after a dismal first half. Unfortunately, he won't get the Jaguars again. About half of his remaining games are against very good defenses.
D.J. Chark's brutal injury could mark the end of his time in Jacksonville. A breakout star in 2019, Chark regressed last season and failed to catch fire in this, the final year on his rookie contract. In a perfect world he'll be the #2 next year in a bottom-5 receiving corps. In his absence last night, Laviska Shenault stepped up. He and the surprisingly quiet Marvin Jones are instantly more valuable--not only because this is now a more top-heavy passing attack, but also because Lawrence should improve as he acclimates to the NFL. Given his likely current value, Shenault is a great buy-low candidate.
I did not expect to see James Robinson outshine Joe Mixon. Not that Mixon was worse from an efficiency standpoint, but Robinson benefited significantly from Carlos Hyde's last-minute benching. If this is a sign of things to come, Robinson's floor will bump upward. And Mixon once again demonstrated why he's one of the least-appreciated top-14 RBs out there. He's a slightly lesser version of Nick Chubb with fewer scoring chances. Believe it or not, Mixon is on pace for over 1,400 rushing yards if this were a 16-game season. If he hits 1,500, many people will be shocked, but shouldn't be.
And C.J. Uzomah . . . talk about stealing some fantasy thunder. Tyler Boyd and Ja'Marr Chase were must-start receivers. But Uzomah came out of nowhere with two long touchdowns. Keep firing up Chase and Boyd, of course. And stay wary of Uzomah, especially if Tee Higgins returns next week.
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I also want to share this week's contrarian bargains and busts a day early. Tomorrow I'm making a big announcement on this page and want to highlight these players before Sunday. I'm 18-18 on the season. Remember these are contrarian picks, not obvious picks. If a WR has a consensus #43 ranking, and I think he'll be worth starting, and he finishes in the top 30, that's a hit. If I think the #2 RB will be a relative bust, and he finishes 10th . . . well that's a miss. The RB still did well. If my picks aren't helping people make smarter bold decisions, then they don't count as correct.
With that in mind, at QB I'm pushing Matt Ryan (QB-20 consensus-expert ranking) at home against an underperforming Washington defense. Everything is on the line for the 1-2 Falcons. Win this weekend and then next week against the Jets, and they're still in the hunt despite a fairly tough remaining schedule. It's *possible* they could finish 9-7. But lose to Washington, and the numbers just don't add up for a postseason run. Expect much more of Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. On the flip side, Kyler Murray (QB-3) won't finish in the top 8. There are streamers out there who can give you more upside.
At RB, my extreme longshot pick is Jeremy McNichols (RB-59), who's the de facto backup to the already overworked Derrick Henry. Against the Jets, McNichols realistically could net 7-9 touches and RB4+ production, making him a worthwhile desperation play in deep leagues. Also recommend investing in J.D. McKissic (RB-38) because of his pop potential in a favorable matchup. On the flip side, Najee Harris (RB-7) needs another 30+ touches in Green Bay to be a top-16 option, and I don't see it. Pittsburgh is in a heap of trouble.
At wideout, nearly everyone is overlooking Marquez Callaway (WR-58), just as they did all summer. He's been ramping up slowly each game and should be Jameis Winston's #1 target until Michael Thomas returns. Jalen Reagor (WR-56) and Devonta Smith (WR-35) will both be startable, with Smith breaking out. On the flip side, Chris Godwin has scored in every game despite averaging only six targets in his last two. His WR-16 ranking assumes another touchdown, and I think the odds are against him.
At TE, if you don't have a TE1 on hand, Gerald Everett (TE-35) is the ideal dart throw if he gets off the COVID list. I also like Mike Gesicki (TE-15) getting the attention he deserves. On the flip side, I get that Jared Cook (TE-12) could be a TE1 this week. But his path to relevance is narrow. I wouldn't want to bet on him.