Imagine if someone told you a month ago that through Week 4, three Bucs would be tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns: Ronald Jones, Chris Godwin, and Tom Brady. And then imagine that same person--no let's make it a different person, just to keep things interesting--told you Tom Brady would be on pace to break the single-season pass attempt record? Matthew Stafford holds the record with 727 (45.4 per game). Even with the extra game this year, Brady is still averaging slightly more per contest.
And yet, despite throwing 43 times yesterday, he wasn't able to break through. Yes, he beat Bill Belichick But facing a rookie quarterback equipped with an anemic rushing "attack" that finished with negative yardage, and a hodge-podge of receivers--none of whom could start on many other NFL teams--it shouldn't have been this close. And arguably, Brady wasn't even the best QB on the field, at least not last night.
As a results, Tampa Bay's "big 3" receivers were mostly good-not-great, while Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones (mostly Fournette) kept the chains moving. Also, Cameron Brate out-targeted O.J. Howard 6-1. Next week this team will face a Miami squad that couldn't stop Mo Alie-Cox. No knock on Alie-Cox, but Brate realistically could be the #4 receiver while Gronk is sidelined, making him a solid-upside streamer if you don't have a top-8 TE.
For New England, with their running game non-existant, credit Mac Jones for taking a big step forward on what surely will be the biggest stage of his rookie campaign. As expected, Jakobi Meyers came through, though I was surprised to see Kendrick Bourne getting plenty of love early on. Not sure whether Tampa Bay effectively shut him down, because he was silenced throughout the second half. I also did not expect Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to both score. They remain low-floor TEs regardless; neither has cracked six targets all year. And it was fascinating to see Brandon Bolden taking over the James White role, catching all six of his targets for 51 yards. In very deep leagues, Bolden is worth keeping on your radar for another week.
Oh, and a shout-out to Ben Lapidot for nearly guessing the final score (he predicted 26-17). Honorable mention to Christopher Love Rodriguez, the only person to pick the Patriots; he guessed 20-17, and if Nick Folk had connected on that late field goal, Christopher would have been almost on the nose. But of course, Tom Brady would have had 55 seconds to pick up 40-50 yards to set up a game-winning field goal. So actually, there's no way Christopher could have been right. Thanks Tom Brady.
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In tonight's game, we still don't know (as of late last night) whether Josh Jacobs will play. All I know is that Peyton Barber is fool's gold. Until this season, his yards-per-carry has declined each year since he entered the league in 2016, culminating in 2.7 YPC last year.
Also, keep an eye on Mike Willams. I have a piece coming out on Pro Football Network today that includes a slight warning about his rest-of-season value. Yes, he's a terrific talent. Yes, he probably will be a top-20 WR this year. But currently he's #1 in WR points per game. That's not really sustainable, especially when considering Keenan Allen is 16th. There will be some equalizing happening in the coming weeks, and it could start tonight. Williams needs to be in all lineups, and he's also due for a regression.
In case this isn't clear, Davante Adams had arguably the greatest per-game fantasy season in WR history last year with 25.6 points per game. But this year Williams is averaging 25.8. There's no logical reason to expect Williams to break the record. Yes, he could. But the probabilities say defenses will adjust, Keenan Allen will have some big days, Justin Herbert will have a couple off days, and Williams' incredible run will transform him from "epic" to merely "fantastic." Not a bad drop if you know it's coming. But it's a great time to sell very high if an opponent wants to buy very high.
And yet, despite throwing 43 times yesterday, he wasn't able to break through. Yes, he beat Bill Belichick But facing a rookie quarterback equipped with an anemic rushing "attack" that finished with negative yardage, and a hodge-podge of receivers--none of whom could start on many other NFL teams--it shouldn't have been this close. And arguably, Brady wasn't even the best QB on the field, at least not last night.
As a results, Tampa Bay's "big 3" receivers were mostly good-not-great, while Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones (mostly Fournette) kept the chains moving. Also, Cameron Brate out-targeted O.J. Howard 6-1. Next week this team will face a Miami squad that couldn't stop Mo Alie-Cox. No knock on Alie-Cox, but Brate realistically could be the #4 receiver while Gronk is sidelined, making him a solid-upside streamer if you don't have a top-8 TE.
For New England, with their running game non-existant, credit Mac Jones for taking a big step forward on what surely will be the biggest stage of his rookie campaign. As expected, Jakobi Meyers came through, though I was surprised to see Kendrick Bourne getting plenty of love early on. Not sure whether Tampa Bay effectively shut him down, because he was silenced throughout the second half. I also did not expect Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to both score. They remain low-floor TEs regardless; neither has cracked six targets all year. And it was fascinating to see Brandon Bolden taking over the James White role, catching all six of his targets for 51 yards. In very deep leagues, Bolden is worth keeping on your radar for another week.
Oh, and a shout-out to Ben Lapidot for nearly guessing the final score (he predicted 26-17). Honorable mention to Christopher Love Rodriguez, the only person to pick the Patriots; he guessed 20-17, and if Nick Folk had connected on that late field goal, Christopher would have been almost on the nose. But of course, Tom Brady would have had 55 seconds to pick up 40-50 yards to set up a game-winning field goal. So actually, there's no way Christopher could have been right. Thanks Tom Brady.
---
In tonight's game, we still don't know (as of late last night) whether Josh Jacobs will play. All I know is that Peyton Barber is fool's gold. Until this season, his yards-per-carry has declined each year since he entered the league in 2016, culminating in 2.7 YPC last year.
Also, keep an eye on Mike Willams. I have a piece coming out on Pro Football Network today that includes a slight warning about his rest-of-season value. Yes, he's a terrific talent. Yes, he probably will be a top-20 WR this year. But currently he's #1 in WR points per game. That's not really sustainable, especially when considering Keenan Allen is 16th. There will be some equalizing happening in the coming weeks, and it could start tonight. Williams needs to be in all lineups, and he's also due for a regression.
In case this isn't clear, Davante Adams had arguably the greatest per-game fantasy season in WR history last year with 25.6 points per game. But this year Williams is averaging 25.8. There's no logical reason to expect Williams to break the record. Yes, he could. But the probabilities say defenses will adjust, Keenan Allen will have some big days, Justin Herbert will have a couple off days, and Williams' incredible run will transform him from "epic" to merely "fantastic." Not a bad drop if you know it's coming. But it's a great time to sell very high if an opponent wants to buy very high.