Starting something new today on this page: an early-evening column for anyone making last-minute sit/start decisions tonight. Before getting into the game, I'll start by saying that today's games are the thousandth reminder that just beacuse we have a good team, it doesn't mean our team will be good next week. Injuries wreck rosters. Ascending backups revitalize rosters.
This morning I picked up Damien Williams for $1. Depending on David Montgomery's and Dalvin Cook's prognosis, I'll go from having one semi-dependable RB (CEH) to potentially three bellcow RBs. I push and push folks to add RB handcuffs whenever possible. This morning I had an extra DST and decided to play the lottery with Williams. We don't know what's going to happen, or when it will happen. But we need to always--always, no matter how comfortable we feel--maximize the probability of success.
Tonight's contest needs no introduction. The question is what we might expect. At QB, Tom Brady has thrown more passes and completed more passes than anyone else through three games. It's as if each season he's increasingly dissatisfied with his legacy. Always more to prove. Mac Jones, on the other hand, has been a low-ceiling rookie, which isn't that surprising. He's actually done fairly well, getting thrown into a Bill Belichick system and looking like he belongs. In a game that should go sharply one way, I'm expecting Davis to throw enough to outdo his consensus Week 4 QB-28 rankings. In fact, a solid 18+ points is realistic, so I'd bet on that.
At RB, what do we do with Leonard Fournette? Ronald Jones is basically a glorified handcuff. But Fournette still hasn't scored and isn't getting enough volume to be a dependable flex option. The problem is that it's too late to sell him. Wait until he (or Jones if you have him) has a big game. Try to parlay that into a package deal for a more reliable option. No doubt, the RB TDs will come. They always do. But all you can do is wait and hope it happens soon. New England's yielding a healthy 4.0 yards per carry despite playing the Dolphins and Jets. I would be Fournette or Jones will be streamable tonight, with at least one TD between them.
And in the Patriots' backfield, will anyone fill in for the absence of James White? Damien Harris gets a small bump, while J.J. Taylor or Brandon Bolden could step up, though I doubt it. Rhamondre Stevenson is the guy to watch. Massive upside if Harris goes down, as Taylor and Bolden likely can't be trusted to handle even middling volume.
At wideout and tight end, Rob Gronkowski could be out several weeks. So this might be one of those occasions (and it probably will be) when Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin are all comfortably startable. Not so confident about O.J. Howard or Cameron Brate. Never underestimate the possibility that Brady has made a new TE friend. But there's enough talent on this team not to dig for one of the remaining startable tight ends. If you guess right, great job. If not, you'll regret it.
And for the Pats, I'm having trouble buying into Kendrick Bourne, so I won't. Jakobi Meyers remains the #1. Nelson Agholor did nothing with eight targets last week, though we can't entirely count him out until his target share drops significantly. And Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are like lesser versions of Fournette and RoJo: similar floors and lower ceilings.
Predictions for tonight? As always, a shout-out for the closest final score. I'll go 38-20 Bucs. Would like to say 58-20, but I trust Belichick to be prepared enough to lose by only 18.
This morning I picked up Damien Williams for $1. Depending on David Montgomery's and Dalvin Cook's prognosis, I'll go from having one semi-dependable RB (CEH) to potentially three bellcow RBs. I push and push folks to add RB handcuffs whenever possible. This morning I had an extra DST and decided to play the lottery with Williams. We don't know what's going to happen, or when it will happen. But we need to always--always, no matter how comfortable we feel--maximize the probability of success.
Tonight's contest needs no introduction. The question is what we might expect. At QB, Tom Brady has thrown more passes and completed more passes than anyone else through three games. It's as if each season he's increasingly dissatisfied with his legacy. Always more to prove. Mac Jones, on the other hand, has been a low-ceiling rookie, which isn't that surprising. He's actually done fairly well, getting thrown into a Bill Belichick system and looking like he belongs. In a game that should go sharply one way, I'm expecting Davis to throw enough to outdo his consensus Week 4 QB-28 rankings. In fact, a solid 18+ points is realistic, so I'd bet on that.
At RB, what do we do with Leonard Fournette? Ronald Jones is basically a glorified handcuff. But Fournette still hasn't scored and isn't getting enough volume to be a dependable flex option. The problem is that it's too late to sell him. Wait until he (or Jones if you have him) has a big game. Try to parlay that into a package deal for a more reliable option. No doubt, the RB TDs will come. They always do. But all you can do is wait and hope it happens soon. New England's yielding a healthy 4.0 yards per carry despite playing the Dolphins and Jets. I would be Fournette or Jones will be streamable tonight, with at least one TD between them.
And in the Patriots' backfield, will anyone fill in for the absence of James White? Damien Harris gets a small bump, while J.J. Taylor or Brandon Bolden could step up, though I doubt it. Rhamondre Stevenson is the guy to watch. Massive upside if Harris goes down, as Taylor and Bolden likely can't be trusted to handle even middling volume.
At wideout and tight end, Rob Gronkowski could be out several weeks. So this might be one of those occasions (and it probably will be) when Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin are all comfortably startable. Not so confident about O.J. Howard or Cameron Brate. Never underestimate the possibility that Brady has made a new TE friend. But there's enough talent on this team not to dig for one of the remaining startable tight ends. If you guess right, great job. If not, you'll regret it.
And for the Pats, I'm having trouble buying into Kendrick Bourne, so I won't. Jakobi Meyers remains the #1. Nelson Agholor did nothing with eight targets last week, though we can't entirely count him out until his target share drops significantly. And Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are like lesser versions of Fournette and RoJo: similar floors and lower ceilings.
Predictions for tonight? As always, a shout-out for the closest final score. I'll go 38-20 Bucs. Would like to say 58-20, but I trust Belichick to be prepared enough to lose by only 18.