I'm calling this morning's column, "The Best Trade Offers Are Made Before the Offer." Yesterday morning's post walked through my trades leading up to a nail-biting Week 5 victory. The most common response was essentially, "How do I get people to trade in my league?"
I probably make about 15-20 trades a year. Most are small, one-for-one deals that don't overtly benefit either side. But I've calculated that the trade--more likely than not--will net me a very slight short- or long-term advantage. If desperate for a win, I'm eyeing short-term gains. If dominating and preparing for the postseason, I'm seeking long-term gains.
"More likely than not" is key. If an offer is clearly lopsided, almost no one will accept it. Now, in some leagues people wheel-and-deal for the thrill of it, without caring too much about the consequences. Those are great leagues. They're also often lopsided. Those in-the-know dominate. Those not in-the-know draft Joe Burrow in the third round because they went to school with him.
So let's assume we're all in leagues where everyone wants to win and is savvy enough to understand how to win. "More likely than not" doesn't mean offering Kadarius Toney for Alvin Kamara. If virtually no one in their right mind would accept an offer, it shouldn't be offered. "More likely than not" means, for example, an underperforming WR2 who should get back on track, in exchange for an overperforming WR3 who probably will fall back to earth. We might be wrong; the trade might backfire. But even if the odds are *barely* in our favor, it's worth making the trade. No hesitation. 51% chance of success? Count me in.
We could try for 55% by countering with something a little more in our favor, or we could go bold and push for 65%. But the more we push, the more we alienate.
So if you're in a league where no one's accepting your offers--and no one's even responding--it's time to rethink your strategy. The formal offer should happen only after negotiations, and negotiations should happen only after each side explains what they need. One side might need a QB upgrade, and the other side might need a #2 RB they can start every week. Good. So now as you're negotiating, you can tap into what they want, rather than what you want to give away. The Ravens don't need to draft a quarterback. And if you have Lamar Jackson, you'll probably ignore an offer for another QB.
That's why the best trade offers are made before the offer. Learn what they need and propose trades that help them fill a gap. Always go for the win-win. A 51% chance of success is still a win-win if your opponent thinks they got the better end of the deal, too.
I probably make about 15-20 trades a year. Most are small, one-for-one deals that don't overtly benefit either side. But I've calculated that the trade--more likely than not--will net me a very slight short- or long-term advantage. If desperate for a win, I'm eyeing short-term gains. If dominating and preparing for the postseason, I'm seeking long-term gains.
"More likely than not" is key. If an offer is clearly lopsided, almost no one will accept it. Now, in some leagues people wheel-and-deal for the thrill of it, without caring too much about the consequences. Those are great leagues. They're also often lopsided. Those in-the-know dominate. Those not in-the-know draft Joe Burrow in the third round because they went to school with him.
So let's assume we're all in leagues where everyone wants to win and is savvy enough to understand how to win. "More likely than not" doesn't mean offering Kadarius Toney for Alvin Kamara. If virtually no one in their right mind would accept an offer, it shouldn't be offered. "More likely than not" means, for example, an underperforming WR2 who should get back on track, in exchange for an overperforming WR3 who probably will fall back to earth. We might be wrong; the trade might backfire. But even if the odds are *barely* in our favor, it's worth making the trade. No hesitation. 51% chance of success? Count me in.
We could try for 55% by countering with something a little more in our favor, or we could go bold and push for 65%. But the more we push, the more we alienate.
So if you're in a league where no one's accepting your offers--and no one's even responding--it's time to rethink your strategy. The formal offer should happen only after negotiations, and negotiations should happen only after each side explains what they need. One side might need a QB upgrade, and the other side might need a #2 RB they can start every week. Good. So now as you're negotiating, you can tap into what they want, rather than what you want to give away. The Ravens don't need to draft a quarterback. And if you have Lamar Jackson, you'll probably ignore an offer for another QB.
That's why the best trade offers are made before the offer. Learn what they need and propose trades that help them fill a gap. Always go for the win-win. A 51% chance of success is still a win-win if your opponent thinks they got the better end of the deal, too.