Heading into last season, the Saints arguably were one of the most reliable fantasy bets out there. The year before (2019), Drew Brees was the #7 QB in points per game. Yes, age was catching up with him, and he missed five games. But on the field he remained rock solid. Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara was an RB1, and backup Latavius Murray offered rare standalone value for a handcuff with a respectable RB3 performance. And Michael Thomas scored nearly 99 points more than the #2 fantasy WR, Chris Godwin. Yes, nearly 99 points more. Seems like ages ago.
Last year, only Kamara dominated. Brees was no better than a streamer, posting the 17th most QB points per game. Murray was still relevant, thugh he dropped into the murkier RB4 sphere. And no Saint wideout finished in the top 40--not in total points, and not even in points per game.
This season, the fantasy slide has continued. Jameis Winston is the #21 QB, Kamara is the #15 RB, and the best wideout is Deonte Harris at #62. Yes, the best Saint wideout is a WR6/7. The only surprise performer is #21 TE Juwan Johnson, who's proven to be boom-bust through four weeks.
New RB handcuff Tony Jones's injury (out 3-4 weeks) and Michael Thomas's nearing return (potentially four weeks) might alter this offense. But the question is, how much? Dwayne Washington and Ty Montgomery are low-ceiling journeymen who can't be expected to help any fantasy teams. Taysom Hill is the most intriguing option if--a big if--he qualifies in leagues as an RB. Every league is different. It's a longshot. But if Hill builds off of last week's rushing numbers, could it happen? It's worth monitoring.
As for Thomas, there's a clear path for WR3+ production if his head and heart are in the game. Last summer he was a universal first-round pick--a can't-miss talent for years to come. A healthy and focused Thomas would be a boon for an offense desperate for a reliable pass-catcher. If you're 4-0 or 3-1, and if your opponent holding Thomas is 2-2 or worse, you might be able to pry Thomas from them for below market value. I suggest trying. If they need to win now, and you have a WR3/4 to burn, Thomas is worth the risk.
As for Kamara . . . what do you do with Kamara? As some of you know, I bailed on him after Week 1. I had drafted a sub-par team, and Kamara was my top asset. So I packaged him, Keenan Allen, Marquez Callaway, and Trey Lance for Kyler Murray, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Odell Beckham, and Kenny Golladay. At the time, I was giving up an elite RB1 and a likely WR1 for an elite QB1 and three underperformers. On paper it was not a smart move. But I went with my research, not with my gut. And my research showed CEH, OBJ, and Golladay were buy-low options, and Kamara and Keenan were sell-high. Keenan was the toughest loss because his floor is incredible, and his ceiling remains top-6. But even after one week, it was clear Mike Williams would challenge him for the lead WR role. I wrote as much on this blog, and I managed my roster the same way.
Three weeks later, Kamara is somewhere between buy-low and sell-high. It depends on your perspective. With Tony Jones sidelined, Kamara might earn even more touches. His zero rushing TDs are an anomaly. Thomas's eventual return should open up the running game, at least a bit. But at the same time, Kamara is on pace for a personal-record 332 carries. He's currently #3 in the league in that category. His previous career high is 194. Anytime a running back far exceeds his average usage, it's a yellow flag. And defenses know stopping the Saints' offense begins with stopping Kamara. His 3.8 YPC--a full one yard below his career average--is the telling sign that the strategy is working.
I can't say what to do with Kamara. I bailed early. If you don't like what you're seeing, someone in your league will still see him as a top-12 RB. He remains a fantastic trading chip. And if you believe in him, this is the time to buy. But I'd caution you to think about Kamara later this season, and whether you believe he can maintain this usage pace--and if not, whether declining usage will cap his upside.
Last year, only Kamara dominated. Brees was no better than a streamer, posting the 17th most QB points per game. Murray was still relevant, thugh he dropped into the murkier RB4 sphere. And no Saint wideout finished in the top 40--not in total points, and not even in points per game.
This season, the fantasy slide has continued. Jameis Winston is the #21 QB, Kamara is the #15 RB, and the best wideout is Deonte Harris at #62. Yes, the best Saint wideout is a WR6/7. The only surprise performer is #21 TE Juwan Johnson, who's proven to be boom-bust through four weeks.
New RB handcuff Tony Jones's injury (out 3-4 weeks) and Michael Thomas's nearing return (potentially four weeks) might alter this offense. But the question is, how much? Dwayne Washington and Ty Montgomery are low-ceiling journeymen who can't be expected to help any fantasy teams. Taysom Hill is the most intriguing option if--a big if--he qualifies in leagues as an RB. Every league is different. It's a longshot. But if Hill builds off of last week's rushing numbers, could it happen? It's worth monitoring.
As for Thomas, there's a clear path for WR3+ production if his head and heart are in the game. Last summer he was a universal first-round pick--a can't-miss talent for years to come. A healthy and focused Thomas would be a boon for an offense desperate for a reliable pass-catcher. If you're 4-0 or 3-1, and if your opponent holding Thomas is 2-2 or worse, you might be able to pry Thomas from them for below market value. I suggest trying. If they need to win now, and you have a WR3/4 to burn, Thomas is worth the risk.
As for Kamara . . . what do you do with Kamara? As some of you know, I bailed on him after Week 1. I had drafted a sub-par team, and Kamara was my top asset. So I packaged him, Keenan Allen, Marquez Callaway, and Trey Lance for Kyler Murray, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Odell Beckham, and Kenny Golladay. At the time, I was giving up an elite RB1 and a likely WR1 for an elite QB1 and three underperformers. On paper it was not a smart move. But I went with my research, not with my gut. And my research showed CEH, OBJ, and Golladay were buy-low options, and Kamara and Keenan were sell-high. Keenan was the toughest loss because his floor is incredible, and his ceiling remains top-6. But even after one week, it was clear Mike Williams would challenge him for the lead WR role. I wrote as much on this blog, and I managed my roster the same way.
Three weeks later, Kamara is somewhere between buy-low and sell-high. It depends on your perspective. With Tony Jones sidelined, Kamara might earn even more touches. His zero rushing TDs are an anomaly. Thomas's eventual return should open up the running game, at least a bit. But at the same time, Kamara is on pace for a personal-record 332 carries. He's currently #3 in the league in that category. His previous career high is 194. Anytime a running back far exceeds his average usage, it's a yellow flag. And defenses know stopping the Saints' offense begins with stopping Kamara. His 3.8 YPC--a full one yard below his career average--is the telling sign that the strategy is working.
I can't say what to do with Kamara. I bailed early. If you don't like what you're seeing, someone in your league will still see him as a top-12 RB. He remains a fantastic trading chip. And if you believe in him, this is the time to buy. But I'd caution you to think about Kamara later this season, and whether you believe he can maintain this usage pace--and if not, whether declining usage will cap his upside.