A word today on something most managers understand, but we don't always plan for: the fantasy implications of blowout games. Last week featured several lopsided matchups -- more than usual. We could anticipate how those games might go, and as a result, which lesser-used players might be startable sleepers, especially if we had nowhere else to turn.
Of course, it doesn't always work out. I tried this approach by starting A.J. Dillon, figuring the Packers would comfortably handle Washington, and that Dillon's normal RB3/4 production could elevate to RB2 production. Instead, he scored negative points. Go figure. I also almost started Sony Michel in my #2 RB spot (yeah, I was struggling with byes and injuries last weekend), thinking the Rams would crush the Lions, leading to plenty of second-half work for the mostly TD-dependent Michel. "40 yards and a score seem possible," I thought. Fortunately, I picked up Kenneth Gainwell Sunday morning and started him instead, as Michel got only 0.4 points.
So my two big bargains combined for 0.2 points. What a terrible strategy. Why am I even talking about it.
Because strategies don't work 100% of the time. The process is logical; the execution is unreliable. This approach almost worked in Tampa Bay, where the formerly irrelevant Ronald Jones racked up 63 yards on 10 carries. While he wasn't useful in fantasy, one could see how he could have had a good day. The team gave him two goal-line looks, and he failed both times--fumbling on the second try. The opportunity to hit 12+ points was there; he just didn't come through.
Samaje Perine had about 14 points in Cincinnati's comfortable win over Baltimore. I don't know who could have guessed that outcome (congrats if you did). But with the Bengals comfortably ahead, of course they turned to Perine. Th opportunity was there, and he seized it. The same goes for J.J. Taylor in New England. I'm still kicking myself for not anticipating his big game. Probably wouldn't have mattered, since waivers hit at 11:00am in my league, and I think Rhamondre Stevenson was declared inactive after that. But for any of us who believed the Patriots would crush the Jets (and I think most of us thought this would happen), Taylor's healthy usage would be a logical outcome. He was an RB2. Teammate Brandon Bolden was an RB1. Bolden was rostered in some leagues. Taylor was rostered in virtually zero leagues. Game flow was predictable. Once we knew Stevenson was out, betting on Bolden and/or Taylor made sense.
That's why guys like Devin Singletary are high on my list this week. The Bills should handle the Dolphins. Maybe it'll be closer than expected. But the odds are pretty good that Buffalo will win comfortably. Singletary should continue to earn 10+ touches, and because Miami's defense is arguably the worst in the league, there should be opportunities to score.
If you're in a 2-QB league and have nowhere to turn, Mitch Trubisky could get some run in the fourth quarter and maybe get you a cheap 6-8 points. Or Matt Breida or Taiwan Jones (if activated) could do mop-up work. Depending on your level of desperation, there are plays to make. When a blowout is possible, opportunities open up.
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Of course, it doesn't always work out. I tried this approach by starting A.J. Dillon, figuring the Packers would comfortably handle Washington, and that Dillon's normal RB3/4 production could elevate to RB2 production. Instead, he scored negative points. Go figure. I also almost started Sony Michel in my #2 RB spot (yeah, I was struggling with byes and injuries last weekend), thinking the Rams would crush the Lions, leading to plenty of second-half work for the mostly TD-dependent Michel. "40 yards and a score seem possible," I thought. Fortunately, I picked up Kenneth Gainwell Sunday morning and started him instead, as Michel got only 0.4 points.
So my two big bargains combined for 0.2 points. What a terrible strategy. Why am I even talking about it.
Because strategies don't work 100% of the time. The process is logical; the execution is unreliable. This approach almost worked in Tampa Bay, where the formerly irrelevant Ronald Jones racked up 63 yards on 10 carries. While he wasn't useful in fantasy, one could see how he could have had a good day. The team gave him two goal-line looks, and he failed both times--fumbling on the second try. The opportunity to hit 12+ points was there; he just didn't come through.
Samaje Perine had about 14 points in Cincinnati's comfortable win over Baltimore. I don't know who could have guessed that outcome (congrats if you did). But with the Bengals comfortably ahead, of course they turned to Perine. Th opportunity was there, and he seized it. The same goes for J.J. Taylor in New England. I'm still kicking myself for not anticipating his big game. Probably wouldn't have mattered, since waivers hit at 11:00am in my league, and I think Rhamondre Stevenson was declared inactive after that. But for any of us who believed the Patriots would crush the Jets (and I think most of us thought this would happen), Taylor's healthy usage would be a logical outcome. He was an RB2. Teammate Brandon Bolden was an RB1. Bolden was rostered in some leagues. Taylor was rostered in virtually zero leagues. Game flow was predictable. Once we knew Stevenson was out, betting on Bolden and/or Taylor made sense.
That's why guys like Devin Singletary are high on my list this week. The Bills should handle the Dolphins. Maybe it'll be closer than expected. But the odds are pretty good that Buffalo will win comfortably. Singletary should continue to earn 10+ touches, and because Miami's defense is arguably the worst in the league, there should be opportunities to score.
If you're in a 2-QB league and have nowhere to turn, Mitch Trubisky could get some run in the fourth quarter and maybe get you a cheap 6-8 points. Or Matt Breida or Taiwan Jones (if activated) could do mop-up work. Depending on your level of desperation, there are plays to make. When a blowout is possible, opportunities open up.
---
- PFN fantasy site -- www.profootballnetwork.com/fantasy-football/
- PFN fantasy podcast -- podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
- Free fantasy advice newsletter -- www.getrevue.co/profile/pfnfantasy