There are so many ways to win at fantasy football. And somehow, there seem to be more ways to lose. And the losses often hit us harder than the wins. We can exhale when we win. The pressure is off, at least for one more week. But a loss--it can last for days, at least for me. I overthink my decisions: a trade that seemed good, but didn't work out; a start/sit that should have gone one way, but instead went another; and so on.
And in the end, whatever the result, we have to come back to the probabilities. Did we maximize the likelihood of victory? If so, then we did what we could. Kareem Hunt gets hurt. Terry McLaurin crashes. The Chargers follow up a 47-point outburst with a 6-point effort. The Ravens score four touchdowns, but Lamar Jackson gets only one of them. If we could have started Sunday over again, would we have made the same decisions with the information we had? Would Austin Ekeler have been an automatic start? Would Marquise Brown have been a no-brainer?
Because if we're playing the percentages, that's the peace of mind we need, win or lose.
As I shared last Monday, my season started poorly. I was 1-3 and looking ahead to a likely Week 5 loss. Needing to improve my roster's upside, I re-examined my research. One piece jumped out at me: In the last 19 seasons, far more often than not, WRs have averaged more 30+ point weeks than RBs. In fact, through Week 4 of this season, there had been 13 30+ point WRs and only three 30+ point RBs. I couldn't imagine making the playoffs with "very good" running backs and "good" receivers. To maximize my probability of success--to increase the odds of getting major points out of my players any given week--I needed to shift my team's strengths from RB to WR.
In Week 4, my starting wideouts were Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, and Kenny Golladay. My backfield duo combined for a respectable 30 points. My three receivers combined for only 32. In Week 5, the newly acquired Antonio Brown gave me my first 30+ point RB/WR of the season. Yesterday, a WR I traded for Saturday night--CeeDee Lamb--was my second RB/WR to crack 30 points. My RBs netted only 8.4 points. But my WRs combined for 70.4. So I re-made my roster to align with what works *better*. Since big-scoring WRs are more common than big-scoring RBs, trading my solid RBs for high-upside WRs gave me the upside I needed to compete. It didn't guarantee victory. It just improved my odds.
No two rosters are the same, and everyone's situation is different. I was 1-3 and desperate for upside. Some of you are 4-2 or better and sitting on 3-4 great RBs. There's no urgency to trade any of them, and for good reason.
But if you need to improve your team, be methodical about it. And if you're in a league where people don't trade, use the big-scorers historical data for your waiver decisions. Or when you draft next summer, remember that #3 receivers rarely bust out. Focus your attention on the guys most likely to give you monster games. Because I can tell you unequivocally if I hadn't shifted my strategy after Week 4, I'd be 1-5 instead of 3-3.
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Listen to the PFN fantasy podcast Monday, Tuesday, and Friday: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
And in the end, whatever the result, we have to come back to the probabilities. Did we maximize the likelihood of victory? If so, then we did what we could. Kareem Hunt gets hurt. Terry McLaurin crashes. The Chargers follow up a 47-point outburst with a 6-point effort. The Ravens score four touchdowns, but Lamar Jackson gets only one of them. If we could have started Sunday over again, would we have made the same decisions with the information we had? Would Austin Ekeler have been an automatic start? Would Marquise Brown have been a no-brainer?
Because if we're playing the percentages, that's the peace of mind we need, win or lose.
As I shared last Monday, my season started poorly. I was 1-3 and looking ahead to a likely Week 5 loss. Needing to improve my roster's upside, I re-examined my research. One piece jumped out at me: In the last 19 seasons, far more often than not, WRs have averaged more 30+ point weeks than RBs. In fact, through Week 4 of this season, there had been 13 30+ point WRs and only three 30+ point RBs. I couldn't imagine making the playoffs with "very good" running backs and "good" receivers. To maximize my probability of success--to increase the odds of getting major points out of my players any given week--I needed to shift my team's strengths from RB to WR.
In Week 4, my starting wideouts were Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham, and Kenny Golladay. My backfield duo combined for a respectable 30 points. My three receivers combined for only 32. In Week 5, the newly acquired Antonio Brown gave me my first 30+ point RB/WR of the season. Yesterday, a WR I traded for Saturday night--CeeDee Lamb--was my second RB/WR to crack 30 points. My RBs netted only 8.4 points. But my WRs combined for 70.4. So I re-made my roster to align with what works *better*. Since big-scoring WRs are more common than big-scoring RBs, trading my solid RBs for high-upside WRs gave me the upside I needed to compete. It didn't guarantee victory. It just improved my odds.
No two rosters are the same, and everyone's situation is different. I was 1-3 and desperate for upside. Some of you are 4-2 or better and sitting on 3-4 great RBs. There's no urgency to trade any of them, and for good reason.
But if you need to improve your team, be methodical about it. And if you're in a league where people don't trade, use the big-scorers historical data for your waiver decisions. Or when you draft next summer, remember that #3 receivers rarely bust out. Focus your attention on the guys most likely to give you monster games. Because I can tell you unequivocally if I hadn't shifted my strategy after Week 4, I'd be 1-5 instead of 3-3.
---
Listen to the PFN fantasy podcast Monday, Tuesday, and Friday: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-the-mood-for-fantasy-football/id1580114372
