There's probably a correlation between win-loss record and waiver desperation. If you're 3-0 right now, you're probably not investing big on the flavor of the week. Why burn your spot in the waiver order, or why spend FAAB you can save for later? But if you're 0-3 or even a weak 1-2 ("weak" meaning your team is decimated by injuries and/or underperformers), you might be a week or two away from desperation mode. It's now or never to salvage your season. Spending big on a free agent is your ticket to respectability.
If you're in the latter group, who are the guys to target or dump heading into Week 4:
At QB, in ESPN leagues, Justin Fields is somehow rostered in 62% of leagues, while Kirk Cousins is rostered in 43%. How is that possible? Cousins is arguably the least respected fantasy QB of the past five years. While he has a tough matchup against Cleveland this week, he's as close to a must-start option as anyone you'll find on waivers in shallower leagues. For those in deeper leagues, Sam Darnold is rostered in only 13% of leagues and has favorable matchups most of the next six weeks. Even without CMC, Darnold can give you top-14 production. On the flip side, back to Fields: Unless you're in a 16-team league, there's not much reason to hold onto him. The offense is a disaster, he doesn't look ready to be a QB1, and he might not even start this week. He should be rostered in no more than 25% of leagues at this stage.
At RB, Jeff Wilson (10%) is a nice flyer for later in the season if you have an IR spot. Zack Moss (62%) should be rostered in nearly every league. Chuba Hubbard (17%) is an obvious call, and I would caution folks not to expect the moon with him. He controls his destiny as a bellcow, and could just as easily wind up with a measly 8-10 touches and RB5 production. On the flip side, I've been pushing readers to sell high on Ty'Son Williams ever since Gus Edwards got hurt. He's rostered in an insane 93% of leagues. He's one more disappointing game away from being fantasy worthless.
At WR, I picked up Tim Patrick two weeks ago and have started him at flex each week. He's a double-digit fantasy machine when starting, and his 21% rostering rate is way too low. The same goes for the higher-upside Christian Kirk (31%), who's finally making good on his potential--ironically at a time when Arizona's receiving corps is as packed as ever. And keep an eye on Michael Gallup (68%), who managers are shedding while he's on IR. He could return as soon as next week and should be rostered in 80%+ leagues. On the flip side, Darnell Mooney is a stretch at 55%, and Curtis Samuel (59%) is an unwise hold if you're looking to lock in high-upside potential and/or an immediate-impact player.
At TE, I'm taking the plunge on the rock-bottom Evan Engram (37%). Not long ago he was a consistent preseason top-8 TE with top-4 upside. Now he's no better than a speculative add. With Daniel Jones throwing to a very short field, expect Engram to get more engaged as the weeks progress. If you don't have a TE1, pick him up. Dawson Knox (6%) is also a nice find, with upcoming games against Houston and Kansas City. On the flip side, I was very high on Cole Kmet (26%) this summer, back when the offense was presumed to be "mediocre." Now that it's "not even close to mediocre," there's no coherent reason to stash Kmet, except in dynasty leagues. At best he'll top out as a high-end TE2, and that's if things break right. And while I pushed Jonnu Smith in years past when he was replacing Delanie Walker in Tennessee, this year his 79% roster rate is simply odd. Don't waste time with a TE whose ceiling is a back-end TE1. Better to stream them based on matchups, especially TEs in high-octane offenses like Dallas or Arizona.
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If you're in the latter group, who are the guys to target or dump heading into Week 4:
At QB, in ESPN leagues, Justin Fields is somehow rostered in 62% of leagues, while Kirk Cousins is rostered in 43%. How is that possible? Cousins is arguably the least respected fantasy QB of the past five years. While he has a tough matchup against Cleveland this week, he's as close to a must-start option as anyone you'll find on waivers in shallower leagues. For those in deeper leagues, Sam Darnold is rostered in only 13% of leagues and has favorable matchups most of the next six weeks. Even without CMC, Darnold can give you top-14 production. On the flip side, back to Fields: Unless you're in a 16-team league, there's not much reason to hold onto him. The offense is a disaster, he doesn't look ready to be a QB1, and he might not even start this week. He should be rostered in no more than 25% of leagues at this stage.
At RB, Jeff Wilson (10%) is a nice flyer for later in the season if you have an IR spot. Zack Moss (62%) should be rostered in nearly every league. Chuba Hubbard (17%) is an obvious call, and I would caution folks not to expect the moon with him. He controls his destiny as a bellcow, and could just as easily wind up with a measly 8-10 touches and RB5 production. On the flip side, I've been pushing readers to sell high on Ty'Son Williams ever since Gus Edwards got hurt. He's rostered in an insane 93% of leagues. He's one more disappointing game away from being fantasy worthless.
At WR, I picked up Tim Patrick two weeks ago and have started him at flex each week. He's a double-digit fantasy machine when starting, and his 21% rostering rate is way too low. The same goes for the higher-upside Christian Kirk (31%), who's finally making good on his potential--ironically at a time when Arizona's receiving corps is as packed as ever. And keep an eye on Michael Gallup (68%), who managers are shedding while he's on IR. He could return as soon as next week and should be rostered in 80%+ leagues. On the flip side, Darnell Mooney is a stretch at 55%, and Curtis Samuel (59%) is an unwise hold if you're looking to lock in high-upside potential and/or an immediate-impact player.
At TE, I'm taking the plunge on the rock-bottom Evan Engram (37%). Not long ago he was a consistent preseason top-8 TE with top-4 upside. Now he's no better than a speculative add. With Daniel Jones throwing to a very short field, expect Engram to get more engaged as the weeks progress. If you don't have a TE1, pick him up. Dawson Knox (6%) is also a nice find, with upcoming games against Houston and Kansas City. On the flip side, I was very high on Cole Kmet (26%) this summer, back when the offense was presumed to be "mediocre." Now that it's "not even close to mediocre," there's no coherent reason to stash Kmet, except in dynasty leagues. At best he'll top out as a high-end TE2, and that's if things break right. And while I pushed Jonnu Smith in years past when he was replacing Delanie Walker in Tennessee, this year his 79% roster rate is simply odd. Don't waste time with a TE whose ceiling is a back-end TE1. Better to stream them based on matchups, especially TEs in high-octane offenses like Dallas or Arizona.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W