A quarterback has gone #1 in six of the last seven NFL drafts. Tonight's contest pits the last two #1's: Joe Burrow vs. Trevor Lawrence. Burrow's rookie campaign was cut short with a season-ending injury. I thought his QB-13 ADP this summer was ridiculous. He has three terrific receivers, but still has a bad o-line and is not playing in a pass-heavy system. He's 29th in attempts through three weeks and 23rd in QB fantasy points, one spot above the unstartable Carson Wentz.
Tee Higgins' injury hasn't helped. But let's be clear: Burrow remains a work in progress with only 13 NFL starts under his belt. Fortunately his Week 4 opponent has one of the league's worst pass defenses (111.6 opposing QB rating). The Jaguars made Tyrod Taylor and Teddy Bridgewater look like Kyler Murray--though ironically they made Kyler look like Tyrod and Teddy. But Jacksonville has been tough against the run (3.3 YPC). It's easy to see how Burrow could post his fourth straight 2+ TD day. I'm banking on season-high yards (275+) and at least two scores.
Ja'Marr Chase is the 11th highest scoring WR and is thriving despite averaging barely five targets per game. That's right: only five targets. Among WRs he's tied for second in TDs and tied for 46th in receptions. So something has to give. Either the offense has to become more pass-happy, or Chase's value is peaking. Please hear this: If this weren't a short week for Cincy, perhaps Tee Higgins would be on the field. When Higgins returns, Chase will be part of a three-headed receiver corps. Talented? Absolutely. But not WR-11 talented, at least not this year. Sell high today, or assuming he has another nice game, sell high after tonight. But don't wait. If you can get top-14 value for him, cash out ASAP.
Of course, in most leagues Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd need to be in starting lineups. While Mixon gets a bad rap, he's been a top-14 RB in per-game production each of the last three seasons. He's currently the RB-15 and is #2 in rushing yards. Despite the fact other #1 RBs have had trouble running against Jacksonville, Mixon is a volume-friendly bellcow with just enough passing-game usage to keep him in weekly RB2 conversations.
As for the Jags, just as with Burrow, I warned folks about Trevor Lawrence this summer. For my money, Gardner Minshew was not the problem. This franchise has plenty of holes, and not even a "generational talent" like Lawrence can patch them up in year 1. For perspective, Burrow is tied for the third most interceptions with four. Lawrence is tied for #1 with seven. Trevor's 54.2% completion rate is the lowest among all NFL starters (not including pseudo-starter Justin Fields). I paid $3 in FAAB yesterday to snag the Bengals DST. Lawrence needs to take his game to another level to avoid another disappointing outing. He's capable of making the leap at any time, though he's not likely to make the leap tonight.
Elsewhere, James Robinson keeps chugging along despite the presence of the revitalized Carlos Hyde. Speaking of Hyde, anyone else want to see him back up Frank Gore Jr. in three years? Now that would probably be a first in major professional sports: bookending your career as the backup to a father-and-son tandem.
Anyway, Robinson is tough to bench if you don't have an RB2 to plug in. Hard to ignore his 12-92 numbers through the air. The floor is solid. The 5.2 YPC is shockingly good in such a disjointed offense. But I can't envision Robinson clearing 14 points, so keep expectations in check. The same goes for any Jaguar receiver not named Marvin Jones, who somehow continues to flash wherever he plays. Easy to like him against his long-ago former team. He's been Lawrence's top target, and game flow should keep him involved. D.J. Chark and the painfully underutilized Laviska Shenault are dart throws--though they shouldn't be if this team had a functioning aerial attack.
What are we thinking about tonight's game? Headed for 10 punts and five turnovers, or could this be the third thrilling Thursday Night Football contest of the season? How about we split the difference. 24-17 Bengals. Leave your prediction below. Winner gets a like. Okay, okay . . . a heart.
Tee Higgins' injury hasn't helped. But let's be clear: Burrow remains a work in progress with only 13 NFL starts under his belt. Fortunately his Week 4 opponent has one of the league's worst pass defenses (111.6 opposing QB rating). The Jaguars made Tyrod Taylor and Teddy Bridgewater look like Kyler Murray--though ironically they made Kyler look like Tyrod and Teddy. But Jacksonville has been tough against the run (3.3 YPC). It's easy to see how Burrow could post his fourth straight 2+ TD day. I'm banking on season-high yards (275+) and at least two scores.
Ja'Marr Chase is the 11th highest scoring WR and is thriving despite averaging barely five targets per game. That's right: only five targets. Among WRs he's tied for second in TDs and tied for 46th in receptions. So something has to give. Either the offense has to become more pass-happy, or Chase's value is peaking. Please hear this: If this weren't a short week for Cincy, perhaps Tee Higgins would be on the field. When Higgins returns, Chase will be part of a three-headed receiver corps. Talented? Absolutely. But not WR-11 talented, at least not this year. Sell high today, or assuming he has another nice game, sell high after tonight. But don't wait. If you can get top-14 value for him, cash out ASAP.
Of course, in most leagues Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd need to be in starting lineups. While Mixon gets a bad rap, he's been a top-14 RB in per-game production each of the last three seasons. He's currently the RB-15 and is #2 in rushing yards. Despite the fact other #1 RBs have had trouble running against Jacksonville, Mixon is a volume-friendly bellcow with just enough passing-game usage to keep him in weekly RB2 conversations.
As for the Jags, just as with Burrow, I warned folks about Trevor Lawrence this summer. For my money, Gardner Minshew was not the problem. This franchise has plenty of holes, and not even a "generational talent" like Lawrence can patch them up in year 1. For perspective, Burrow is tied for the third most interceptions with four. Lawrence is tied for #1 with seven. Trevor's 54.2% completion rate is the lowest among all NFL starters (not including pseudo-starter Justin Fields). I paid $3 in FAAB yesterday to snag the Bengals DST. Lawrence needs to take his game to another level to avoid another disappointing outing. He's capable of making the leap at any time, though he's not likely to make the leap tonight.
Elsewhere, James Robinson keeps chugging along despite the presence of the revitalized Carlos Hyde. Speaking of Hyde, anyone else want to see him back up Frank Gore Jr. in three years? Now that would probably be a first in major professional sports: bookending your career as the backup to a father-and-son tandem.
Anyway, Robinson is tough to bench if you don't have an RB2 to plug in. Hard to ignore his 12-92 numbers through the air. The floor is solid. The 5.2 YPC is shockingly good in such a disjointed offense. But I can't envision Robinson clearing 14 points, so keep expectations in check. The same goes for any Jaguar receiver not named Marvin Jones, who somehow continues to flash wherever he plays. Easy to like him against his long-ago former team. He's been Lawrence's top target, and game flow should keep him involved. D.J. Chark and the painfully underutilized Laviska Shenault are dart throws--though they shouldn't be if this team had a functioning aerial attack.
What are we thinking about tonight's game? Headed for 10 punts and five turnovers, or could this be the third thrilling Thursday Night Football contest of the season? How about we split the difference. 24-17 Bengals. Leave your prediction below. Winner gets a like. Okay, okay . . . a heart.