I've never shared this on this page, but this isn't my first fantasy football blog. Back in 2007--three years before I even considered writing a fantasy book--I launched a short-lived website that had many of the elements of what would become FF4W: contrarian predictions, tracking their accuracy, trade strategies, answering every question, etc. The site still exists, though it's almost impossible to find beneath the billions/trillions of pages of more topical Internet content.
But one thing about it jumped out at me after last night's game: the Rebound Effect. Great players coming off bad games are more likely to rebound than to endure another bad game. Of course, that theory needs to be proven, and maybe that'll be a useful offseason research project. But we know instinctively that if Player A is a team's #1 receiver, isn't hurt, isn't in the coach's doghouse, and isn't hampered by teammates (e.g. an injured started QB), then there's a good chance Player A will eventually "return to the mean"--or earn the yards and touchdowns one would expect. Of course, there are exceptions. But as always, if we're playing the probabilities, it's useful to trust talented players placed in positions to thrive.
In Week 1, Zeke Elliott was a disaster. But if you trusted that his talent and opportunities wouldn't wane in the long term--if you were willing to absorbe the pain of Week 1 knowing better days were ahead--then that patience paid off.
The same thing is happening with Amari Cooper. In his opening game he looked like a sure-fire top-10 WR. A draft steal. An untouchable asset. But he's averaged 5.5 fantasy points in his last two games. So do we panic? Of course not. He's still dealing with a rib injury and wore a flak jacket last night. But he also led the Cowboys in routes run and tied for the lead in snaps. His injury doesn't explain CeeDee Lamb's relatively quiet output. Amari remains a weekly threat for gaudy production, especially when his ribs are healed.
Devonta Smith is a lesser example, but the rules still apply. The #10 overall draft pick has seen declining targets and production since Week 1's impressive debut. Philly has only three offensive touchdowns in their last two contests, resulting in two losses. Kenneth Gainwell should not be out-gaining Smith through the air. Yes, the Eagles' receiving corps suddenly looks crowded with Greg Ward scoring and Quez Watkins making big plays. But that doesn't make Smith irrelevant going forward. If anything, what Philly is doing isn't working. They have to figure out how to get Smith going. I'm expecting big things from him next week.
Trust in the rebound effect. Trust in great talent with great opportunities.
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Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W
But one thing about it jumped out at me after last night's game: the Rebound Effect. Great players coming off bad games are more likely to rebound than to endure another bad game. Of course, that theory needs to be proven, and maybe that'll be a useful offseason research project. But we know instinctively that if Player A is a team's #1 receiver, isn't hurt, isn't in the coach's doghouse, and isn't hampered by teammates (e.g. an injured started QB), then there's a good chance Player A will eventually "return to the mean"--or earn the yards and touchdowns one would expect. Of course, there are exceptions. But as always, if we're playing the probabilities, it's useful to trust talented players placed in positions to thrive.
In Week 1, Zeke Elliott was a disaster. But if you trusted that his talent and opportunities wouldn't wane in the long term--if you were willing to absorbe the pain of Week 1 knowing better days were ahead--then that patience paid off.
The same thing is happening with Amari Cooper. In his opening game he looked like a sure-fire top-10 WR. A draft steal. An untouchable asset. But he's averaged 5.5 fantasy points in his last two games. So do we panic? Of course not. He's still dealing with a rib injury and wore a flak jacket last night. But he also led the Cowboys in routes run and tied for the lead in snaps. His injury doesn't explain CeeDee Lamb's relatively quiet output. Amari remains a weekly threat for gaudy production, especially when his ribs are healed.
Devonta Smith is a lesser example, but the rules still apply. The #10 overall draft pick has seen declining targets and production since Week 1's impressive debut. Philly has only three offensive touchdowns in their last two contests, resulting in two losses. Kenneth Gainwell should not be out-gaining Smith through the air. Yes, the Eagles' receiving corps suddenly looks crowded with Greg Ward scoring and Quez Watkins making big plays. But that doesn't make Smith irrelevant going forward. If anything, what Philly is doing isn't working. They have to figure out how to get Smith going. I'm expecting big things from him next week.
Trust in the rebound effect. Trust in great talent with great opportunities.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W