Some critically important questionable tags as of the time I'm writing this (Saturday at 11:00pm). Remember not to trust everything you read about players' availability, unless it's absolute. In other words, "Joe Thompson is expected to be on a snap count" carries less weight than "Jim Williams will start." The latter is as close to truth as we're going to get: Williams is starting. We don't know if he's playing on one drive or all game or somewhere in between. But if he's normally a starter, and he's cleared to start, then that's generally good enough for me.
But "expected to be on a snap count," or some other qualifier . . . these are harder to pin down. It could be coach-speak / gamesmanship, trying to confuse the opposing team. Or it could be legit. Or it could be the coaching staff has no idea how Joe Thompson's ankle will hold up, so they'll trot him out and see what happens. The "snap count" might apply if the ankle's hampering him, or if there's a pain intolerance issue, or if he's at a greater re-injury risk.
We see a lot of these pronouncements in the days and hours leading up to game-time, and we have to be able discern what's absolute and what's dependent on unknowable factors. Absolute helps us arrive at fairly reliable probabilities. Unknowable factors are just that; we take our chance, knowing it's a roll of the dice.
With that in mind, I want to avenge last Sunday's embarrassing DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week, when most of my allegedly "excellent" players fell flat. Not knowing the status of some questionable players, I have to play it a bit safe this week. Here are my recommendations, based as always on FanDuel pricing:
QB Kyler Murray ($9,000) -- Thought about rolling with the cheaper Daniel Jones. Instead going with fantasy's #1 QB.
RB Chase Edmonds ($6,600) -- Relatively affordable, and a fantastic hedge if Kyler yields to his backfield near the goal line.
RB Saquon Barkley ($6,600) -- If you don't trust Saquon, go with James White for $600 less. I actually really like the Giants' "franchise" RB this week against an Atlanta defense primed for disappointment.
WR Tyreek Hill ($8,700) -- When is the best time to start Tyreek? Versus a beatable defense the week after he's shut down.
WR Keenan Allen ($6,900) -- Way too cheap given his upside, especially in what's expected to be a high-scoring contest.
WR Mike Williams ($6,000) -- Not merely a hedge, Williams is for real. Wrote about 10 days ago that he's a real threat to Keenan's dominance atop the Chargers' WR depth chart.
TE T.J. Hockenson ($6,300) -- What a talent, and he should be valued at least $1,000 higher.
FLEX Sterling Shepard ($6,400) -- I'm following the points here, which isn't an ideal strategy. Shepard has been Jones' #1 target. It's only a matter of time before Kenny Golladay gets going. Yet Shepard remains a safe play in a terrific matchup.
DST Bills ($4,100) -- Wouldn't be surprised if they score 20 fantasy points.
Good luck today.
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But "expected to be on a snap count," or some other qualifier . . . these are harder to pin down. It could be coach-speak / gamesmanship, trying to confuse the opposing team. Or it could be legit. Or it could be the coaching staff has no idea how Joe Thompson's ankle will hold up, so they'll trot him out and see what happens. The "snap count" might apply if the ankle's hampering him, or if there's a pain intolerance issue, or if he's at a greater re-injury risk.
We see a lot of these pronouncements in the days and hours leading up to game-time, and we have to be able discern what's absolute and what's dependent on unknowable factors. Absolute helps us arrive at fairly reliable probabilities. Unknowable factors are just that; we take our chance, knowing it's a roll of the dice.
With that in mind, I want to avenge last Sunday's embarrassing DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week, when most of my allegedly "excellent" players fell flat. Not knowing the status of some questionable players, I have to play it a bit safe this week. Here are my recommendations, based as always on FanDuel pricing:
QB Kyler Murray ($9,000) -- Thought about rolling with the cheaper Daniel Jones. Instead going with fantasy's #1 QB.
RB Chase Edmonds ($6,600) -- Relatively affordable, and a fantastic hedge if Kyler yields to his backfield near the goal line.
RB Saquon Barkley ($6,600) -- If you don't trust Saquon, go with James White for $600 less. I actually really like the Giants' "franchise" RB this week against an Atlanta defense primed for disappointment.
WR Tyreek Hill ($8,700) -- When is the best time to start Tyreek? Versus a beatable defense the week after he's shut down.
WR Keenan Allen ($6,900) -- Way too cheap given his upside, especially in what's expected to be a high-scoring contest.
WR Mike Williams ($6,000) -- Not merely a hedge, Williams is for real. Wrote about 10 days ago that he's a real threat to Keenan's dominance atop the Chargers' WR depth chart.
TE T.J. Hockenson ($6,300) -- What a talent, and he should be valued at least $1,000 higher.
FLEX Sterling Shepard ($6,400) -- I'm following the points here, which isn't an ideal strategy. Shepard has been Jones' #1 target. It's only a matter of time before Kenny Golladay gets going. Yet Shepard remains a safe play in a terrific matchup.
DST Bills ($4,100) -- Wouldn't be surprised if they score 20 fantasy points.
Good luck today.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W