Be ready for 5-10 shocking fantasy heroes and 15+ painful fantasy busts today. We know that's how things usually happen. The question is whether it'll happen to us. Keep playing the probabilities and good luck.
Once again, here's my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. Last week's lineup hit pretty comfortably. As some of my might recall from previous years' columns, my win rate is about 65%. These are no tournament lineups. I've won two DFS tournaments and have finished top-10 several times. But they're designed to be extraordinarily difficult to make money on. A few years ago I won a fantasy baseball tournament out of about 21,000 people. The 6th-place person's winnings were about 10x less than mine. I think the 20th place person got something like $15--despite finishing in the top 0.1%.
So if you want my advice on tournaments, sign up for a strategy session using the link at the bottom. I'll recommended specific lineups and will walk through why I believe they'll significantly increase your probability of success. And for the rest of you who are interested in higher-probability 50/50 contests, here's my Lineup of the Week, using FanDuel pricing for all 1pm Eastern games. Good news for those of you using other DFS apps: This lineup has $1,100 left over, so you should have plenty of flexibility to use these players across various platforms:
QB Ben Roethlisberger ($7,200) -- The slightly more expensive Jalen Hurts is probably a better play. But if Hurts gets injured, your chances of winning could be crushed. Ben offers similar upside (and a lower floor), and this lineup is designed to produce even if Ben is sidelined.
RB Najee Harris ($6,100) -- Harris faced Buffalo in his first NFL start. So I'm not even factoring last week's performance in this week's thinking. The rookie is a superb talent in a plus matchup. Paired with Ben, the two should combine for 35+ points.
RB Nick Chubb ($8,400) -- If you trusted my thinking on Chubb this summer, so far he's paid off, and this week's matchup against the hapless Texans should result in another 20+ points performance.
WR Stefon Diggs ($7,500) -- A pretty safe top-10 WR.
WR Allen Robinson ($7,300) -- The Bears' passing game should rebound, and Robinson will be the biggest beneficiary.
WR Devonta Smith ($5,600) -- There's enough budget to swap out Smith for any Pittsburgh wideout. But there's not much point to overstacking in 50/50's. Let Smith do his think as Philly's #1 receiver.
TE Darren Waller ($7,000) -- Terrible matchup, but even a relatively abysmal 5-65 outing will make Waller useful, and it's easy to see how he could do much more.
FLEX Kareem Hunt ($5,700) -- Another hedge. Game flow will heavily favor Cleveland in this one. 40+ points are a reasonable expectation. Hunt will eat. And if Chubb gets injured, Hunt should dominate.
DST Browns ($4,200) -- You could take New England on the road against the seemingly permanently hapless Jets. Instead, Cleveland at home makes sense against a Houston squad that easily could turn it over 3+ times.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W
Once again, here's my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. Last week's lineup hit pretty comfortably. As some of my might recall from previous years' columns, my win rate is about 65%. These are no tournament lineups. I've won two DFS tournaments and have finished top-10 several times. But they're designed to be extraordinarily difficult to make money on. A few years ago I won a fantasy baseball tournament out of about 21,000 people. The 6th-place person's winnings were about 10x less than mine. I think the 20th place person got something like $15--despite finishing in the top 0.1%.
So if you want my advice on tournaments, sign up for a strategy session using the link at the bottom. I'll recommended specific lineups and will walk through why I believe they'll significantly increase your probability of success. And for the rest of you who are interested in higher-probability 50/50 contests, here's my Lineup of the Week, using FanDuel pricing for all 1pm Eastern games. Good news for those of you using other DFS apps: This lineup has $1,100 left over, so you should have plenty of flexibility to use these players across various platforms:
QB Ben Roethlisberger ($7,200) -- The slightly more expensive Jalen Hurts is probably a better play. But if Hurts gets injured, your chances of winning could be crushed. Ben offers similar upside (and a lower floor), and this lineup is designed to produce even if Ben is sidelined.
RB Najee Harris ($6,100) -- Harris faced Buffalo in his first NFL start. So I'm not even factoring last week's performance in this week's thinking. The rookie is a superb talent in a plus matchup. Paired with Ben, the two should combine for 35+ points.
RB Nick Chubb ($8,400) -- If you trusted my thinking on Chubb this summer, so far he's paid off, and this week's matchup against the hapless Texans should result in another 20+ points performance.
WR Stefon Diggs ($7,500) -- A pretty safe top-10 WR.
WR Allen Robinson ($7,300) -- The Bears' passing game should rebound, and Robinson will be the biggest beneficiary.
WR Devonta Smith ($5,600) -- There's enough budget to swap out Smith for any Pittsburgh wideout. But there's not much point to overstacking in 50/50's. Let Smith do his think as Philly's #1 receiver.
TE Darren Waller ($7,000) -- Terrible matchup, but even a relatively abysmal 5-65 outing will make Waller useful, and it's easy to see how he could do much more.
FLEX Kareem Hunt ($5,700) -- Another hedge. Game flow will heavily favor Cleveland in this one. 40+ points are a reasonable expectation. Hunt will eat. And if Chubb gets injured, Hunt should dominate.
DST Browns ($4,200) -- You could take New England on the road against the seemingly permanently hapless Jets. Instead, Cleveland at home makes sense against a Houston squad that easily could turn it over 3+ times.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W