Some semi-major news hitting in recent days, with Will Fuller's indefinite absence and Josh Jacobs' injury (and whether Kenyan Drake can seize a larger role the rest of the season). And with Raheem Mostert out for the year, can Trey Sermon overtake Elijah Mitchell--if not this week, then soon enough to help managers who drafted him in the middle rounds?
It's Saturday, so it's time for another week of contrarian bargains and busts. in 2018 I hit 49% of these highly unconventional predictions, zigging when nearly every expert is zagging. Then in 2019 I hit 59%, meaning if you went against the grain and started someone who most people believed was unstartable--or benched someone most people believed was a must-start player--you would have made the right call. That can mean the difference between victory and defeat every week. And last week this page got off to a good start by going 7-4. So let's see if we can keep it up.
At quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger (expert-consensus QB-17) should be a QB1. Pay no attention to last week's muted performance in Buffalo. As long as Ben is healthy, he has one of the best receiving corps in the league and, in my opinion, is a great bet for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs. I also wouldn't be surprised if he hit 400/5. I recently traded for Kyler Murray in my league, so I almost have to start Murray given his matchup. But I wish I had an excuse to start Ben. On the flip side, can we trust Ryan Tannehill's QB-12 ranking? I'd like to beleve Tennessee will get back on track in Seattle. But I don't trust him as a QB1, so for now he's too risky to start.
At running back, as you know I'm all in on A.J. Dillon this season. The same goes for this week. No doubt Green Bay will rebound from their shockingly lopsided Week 1 loss. In DFS it's a great time to stack Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. In league play Dillon offers far more upside than his RB-40 ranking suggests. I'm betting the Packers will win by 20+, and that Dillon will get a majority of backfield touches in the final 20 minutes. That should translate into a roughly 12-45 line with 2-3 receptions, meaning 8-14 points. And if you have Leonard Fournette (RB-34) and Ronald Jones (RB-38), this will be one of several weeks when starting both makes sense if you don't have a top-14 RB. The Bucs should put up 35+ on Atlanta, and I'd be very surprised if these two don't combine for at least a couple scores. On the flip side, it should surprise no one that I remain down on Derrick Henry, for all the reasons I've shared these past two months. While he should get 20+ touches, he's more TD-dependent than his RB-8 ranking suggests; he's a flat-out risky top-14 option.
At wideout, I'm one again bullish on the ridiculously underappreciated Sammy Watkins (WR-58), while Christian Kirk (WR-52) and Tim Patrick (WR-51) should be in most starting lineups. There's also no good reason for Jakobi Meyers (WR-39) to be viewed as anything less than a solid flex play. On the flip side, Cooper Kupp (WR-13) will not come close to replicating last week's strong start.
Finally, Robert Tonyan should be ranked higher than his TE-13 consensus placement. People are overreacting to his quiet Week 1. Everyone on the Packers had a quiet Week 1. Tonyan should be viewed as a must-start TE in a very plus matchup. And while I like Kyle Pitts in general (as most people do), it's the wrong time to start him, despite his TE-7 ranking.
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Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W
It's Saturday, so it's time for another week of contrarian bargains and busts. in 2018 I hit 49% of these highly unconventional predictions, zigging when nearly every expert is zagging. Then in 2019 I hit 59%, meaning if you went against the grain and started someone who most people believed was unstartable--or benched someone most people believed was a must-start player--you would have made the right call. That can mean the difference between victory and defeat every week. And last week this page got off to a good start by going 7-4. So let's see if we can keep it up.
At quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger (expert-consensus QB-17) should be a QB1. Pay no attention to last week's muted performance in Buffalo. As long as Ben is healthy, he has one of the best receiving corps in the league and, in my opinion, is a great bet for 300+ yards and 3+ TDs. I also wouldn't be surprised if he hit 400/5. I recently traded for Kyler Murray in my league, so I almost have to start Murray given his matchup. But I wish I had an excuse to start Ben. On the flip side, can we trust Ryan Tannehill's QB-12 ranking? I'd like to beleve Tennessee will get back on track in Seattle. But I don't trust him as a QB1, so for now he's too risky to start.
At running back, as you know I'm all in on A.J. Dillon this season. The same goes for this week. No doubt Green Bay will rebound from their shockingly lopsided Week 1 loss. In DFS it's a great time to stack Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. In league play Dillon offers far more upside than his RB-40 ranking suggests. I'm betting the Packers will win by 20+, and that Dillon will get a majority of backfield touches in the final 20 minutes. That should translate into a roughly 12-45 line with 2-3 receptions, meaning 8-14 points. And if you have Leonard Fournette (RB-34) and Ronald Jones (RB-38), this will be one of several weeks when starting both makes sense if you don't have a top-14 RB. The Bucs should put up 35+ on Atlanta, and I'd be very surprised if these two don't combine for at least a couple scores. On the flip side, it should surprise no one that I remain down on Derrick Henry, for all the reasons I've shared these past two months. While he should get 20+ touches, he's more TD-dependent than his RB-8 ranking suggests; he's a flat-out risky top-14 option.
At wideout, I'm one again bullish on the ridiculously underappreciated Sammy Watkins (WR-58), while Christian Kirk (WR-52) and Tim Patrick (WR-51) should be in most starting lineups. There's also no good reason for Jakobi Meyers (WR-39) to be viewed as anything less than a solid flex play. On the flip side, Cooper Kupp (WR-13) will not come close to replicating last week's strong start.
Finally, Robert Tonyan should be ranked higher than his TE-13 consensus placement. People are overreacting to his quiet Week 1. Everyone on the Packers had a quiet Week 1. Tonyan should be viewed as a must-start TE in a very plus matchup. And while I like Kyle Pitts in general (as most people do), it's the wrong time to start him, despite his TE-7 ranking.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W