I started writing this right after my last substitute-draft gig of the summer: a two-hour snake draft with an agonizingly long two-minute clock. I knew the draft would be trouble when the manager with the eighth pick in round 9 waited until there was one second on the clock before taking Justin Tucker. Yes, those psychological games get to me.
Tonight begins a new era in the NFL. The league last expanded its schedule 43 years ago, in 1978. In the eight 14-game seasons earlier that decade (1970-1977), only four times did a QB throw for 3,000+ yards. But five did it in 1978 (and two others came within five yards of reaching that plateau). Naturally, those two extra games expanded what was possible. While the jump from 16 to 17 games surely won't be as significant, the impact will be noticeable. And it starts tonight with 12+ startable fantasy players--one of the largest collection of offensive difference-makers to play on a Thursday night.
The Bucs clearly have the advantage. The defending champions underperformed last year, partly or mainly due to injuries, and still won it all. This year they are overloaded with talent. The main question is who will be left out each week. Can Tom Brady feed Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown consistently while Gronk, O.J. Howard, and a three-headed backfield get their share? Last year Tampa Bay averaged 64 offensive plays per game. Last year Brady averaged 25 completions on 38 pass attempts. So if we discard 13 incompletions, that leaves 51 "successful" offensive plays (not including penalties, but let's not go crazy here).
If the backfield nets about 26 touches (realistic), that would make Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette fringe, TD-dependent starters. Since the Bucs should put up 30+ points tonight, both are worth flex consideration because of their higher-than-normal TD potential. And Gio Bernard might get 4-5 looks, though he's still a bit hard to read at the moment. Then we're looking at about 25 completions to at least five receivers (three WRs, two TEs, and perhaps some backups). So again, can Evans, Godwin, and Brown all produce, and if so, where does that leave Gronk and (potentially) Howard? The Bucs have a fairly easy schedule this year. There will be many more games like this one. But it will be interesting to see how all these players--many of whom would be must-start options on other teams--share the load.
For Dallas, we'll never know if Dak Prescott could've maintained his incredible start to last season. And tonight might not be representative of what he can mean to fantasy managers this season. Dak is one of my favorite fantasy QBs, hands-down. If he can escape tonight unscathed, it's a win. Expect him to find a way to get 18+ points, and a monster game is always possible, even against Tampa Bay's incredible defense.
Zeke Elliott, similarly, has a great floor assuming his passing-game usage isn't curtailed by elite handcuff Tony Pollard. But assuming the Cowboys will be playing from behind, Zeke could see several dump-offs later in the evening as the Bucs focus more on containing Dallas rather than simply stopping them at the line of scrimmage. And CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and even Michael Gallup are arguably nearly as good a trio as Tampa Bay's big three. I say "arguably nearly" because, again, tonight won't be a good determinant of how good these Cowboy receivers are. We know what they can do, but we haven't seen what they can do across a full season. CeeDee and Amari could easily be tandem WR1s, while Gallup could wind up in the top 30. If they falter tonight, it's a great time to buy low.
By the way, one of my favorite stats this year: The last time Dallas won a game while scoring less than 30 points was in 2018--16 wins ago.
Separately, this is the last day to join the Survivor Pool. If you want to follow on Twitter, I'm at _FF4W. And keep asking questions or sharing your perspectives anytime on the page. That's why we're here.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
*Last Chance to Join* -- Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737
Tonight begins a new era in the NFL. The league last expanded its schedule 43 years ago, in 1978. In the eight 14-game seasons earlier that decade (1970-1977), only four times did a QB throw for 3,000+ yards. But five did it in 1978 (and two others came within five yards of reaching that plateau). Naturally, those two extra games expanded what was possible. While the jump from 16 to 17 games surely won't be as significant, the impact will be noticeable. And it starts tonight with 12+ startable fantasy players--one of the largest collection of offensive difference-makers to play on a Thursday night.
The Bucs clearly have the advantage. The defending champions underperformed last year, partly or mainly due to injuries, and still won it all. This year they are overloaded with talent. The main question is who will be left out each week. Can Tom Brady feed Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown consistently while Gronk, O.J. Howard, and a three-headed backfield get their share? Last year Tampa Bay averaged 64 offensive plays per game. Last year Brady averaged 25 completions on 38 pass attempts. So if we discard 13 incompletions, that leaves 51 "successful" offensive plays (not including penalties, but let's not go crazy here).
If the backfield nets about 26 touches (realistic), that would make Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette fringe, TD-dependent starters. Since the Bucs should put up 30+ points tonight, both are worth flex consideration because of their higher-than-normal TD potential. And Gio Bernard might get 4-5 looks, though he's still a bit hard to read at the moment. Then we're looking at about 25 completions to at least five receivers (three WRs, two TEs, and perhaps some backups). So again, can Evans, Godwin, and Brown all produce, and if so, where does that leave Gronk and (potentially) Howard? The Bucs have a fairly easy schedule this year. There will be many more games like this one. But it will be interesting to see how all these players--many of whom would be must-start options on other teams--share the load.
For Dallas, we'll never know if Dak Prescott could've maintained his incredible start to last season. And tonight might not be representative of what he can mean to fantasy managers this season. Dak is one of my favorite fantasy QBs, hands-down. If he can escape tonight unscathed, it's a win. Expect him to find a way to get 18+ points, and a monster game is always possible, even against Tampa Bay's incredible defense.
Zeke Elliott, similarly, has a great floor assuming his passing-game usage isn't curtailed by elite handcuff Tony Pollard. But assuming the Cowboys will be playing from behind, Zeke could see several dump-offs later in the evening as the Bucs focus more on containing Dallas rather than simply stopping them at the line of scrimmage. And CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and even Michael Gallup are arguably nearly as good a trio as Tampa Bay's big three. I say "arguably nearly" because, again, tonight won't be a good determinant of how good these Cowboy receivers are. We know what they can do, but we haven't seen what they can do across a full season. CeeDee and Amari could easily be tandem WR1s, while Gallup could wind up in the top 30. If they falter tonight, it's a great time to buy low.
By the way, one of my favorite stats this year: The last time Dallas won a game while scoring less than 30 points was in 2018--16 wins ago.
Separately, this is the last day to join the Survivor Pool. If you want to follow on Twitter, I'm at _FF4W. And keep asking questions or sharing your perspectives anytime on the page. That's why we're here.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
*Last Chance to Join* -- Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737