The first Sunday of any NFL season is arguably the least predictable. A few weeks from now, we'll know what we know, and we'll know what we don't. If Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed split touches in Week 3, at least we'll know the risks of starting one of them Week 4. But today, most fantasy calculations are based on mostly meaningless preseason games, last year's production, and reporters' chatter about which players "stood out" in practice or coaches' intentions about "getting the ball" to this guy or that.
There will be at least a couple widely undrafted QBs who come up big today, and probably at least three largely ignored RBs. At least a half-dozen forgotten WRs will score 12+ points. Four or more TE2s/3s will post TE1 numbers.
How do we know? Because it happens every season. Last year in Week 1, Darius Slayton (with a WR-46 ADP) was the 9th-highest-scoring fantasy player with 28.2 points. Malcolm Brown (RB-70 ADP) was the 5th-highest-scoring RB with 26 points. The predictions in the previous paragraph are conservative. Half of all top-12 positional scorers might be players who, as of right now, have no business being in fantasy starting lineups.
These first 2-3 weeks are the shaking-out period. This is when we'll figure out which players are the key offensive pieces we thought they would be, and which ones are not--and who's taking their place. We'll also learn which players might have a "lucky" outburst here and there, but who in general can't be counted on. So we're all making the best decisions we can, and after today we'll be a little smarter about our team's needs.
Under this backdrop, I'm bringing back the DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. There are no guarantees, obviously. But based on what I think I know, I think I've produced a lineup that will get the job done. As always, these are for Sunday 1pm (Eastern) contests only, and it's based on FanDuel pricing. If you use DraftKings or some other service, you can usually get pretty close and might need to just swap out one player. I've done pretty well with these over the years. As some of you know, I don't compete in DFS very often, mostly because for me, gambling money lessens my enjoyment; if I care more about the money than about winning for winning's sake, my priorities are out of wack. That said, I've won two FanDuel tournaments vs. a combined 25,000+ people (and have won two longer fantasy contests vs. a combined 390,000+).
So my track record is good enough to say, "The following lineup is better than if my four-year-old took my phone and randomly pressed on some names." And between us and your computer/phone screen, I approach these lineups very seriously and really want you to win, and always put in way too much time to try to get these lineups just right. So here we go:
QB Sam Darnold ($6,500) -- Tied for the cheapest quarterback option this week, Darnold has surprisingly massive upside playing at home against the team that drafted him and gave up on him. I have long believed Darnold could thrive in a better system with improved talent. He has this in Carolina. I'm banking on 300+ yards and multiple scores.
RB Chris McCaffrey ($10,400) -- I use various DFS 50/50 strategies, and the QB/RB hedge is one of them, particularly in plus offensive matchups, and when the RB is a good pass-catcher. The Darnold/CMC combo checks all of these boxes. CMC is the priciest DFS play this week, and is also worth the investment.
RB Antonio Gibson ($7,000) -- Some of you believe Gibson could be a top-5 RB, and while I don't think he'll reach those heights, there's no doubt he could be Washington's trusted bellcow for a long time. 20+ touches are very realistic today, and a potentially elevated usage in the passing game could make him a small steal at this price.
WR Calvin Ridley ($8,100) -- As long as Atlanta's defense struggles, its top-heavy offense will thrive. I believe Ridley can hit 12/150/2 today.
WR Terry McLaurin ($6,900) -- My DFS strategy usually includes starting teams' #1 receivers. Not always, but usually. I want highly targeted players, and at this price McLaurin is a great get.
WR Robby Anderson ($6,200) -- Remember when I just wrote that I usually want teams' #1 receivers? Well sometimes I'll settle for less. Like Darnold, Anderson is facing his former team and was a must-start WR last year with an arguably less talented QB. He's a great bet for 15+ points.
TE T.J. Hockenson ($5,700) -- Hock might not be this cheap again until 2025. He could be this year's Darren Waller, or he could repeat last year's numbers. Either way, he's solid value this week.
FLEX Laviska Shenault Jr. ($5,600) -- I could start James Robinson instead, and if you believe in Robinson, go for it. Shenault is an ascending talent in a great matchup. I don't want to worry about Carlos Hyde poaching touches. Give me Shenault and 12+ points, and I'll be happy.
DST Bills ($3,600) -- One of the cheapest DSTs, and for good reason: Pittsburgh's offense includes four incredible talents, and Ben Roethlisberger doesn't make a lot of mistakes. But an amped-up Buffalo team playing at home is appealing enough to take the chance.
Good luck today. I'll be around as much as I can be to answer questions, and some of the FF4W commenters will be too. But if you have some ideas and want to share them with folks who have questions, please do. No one has a monopoly on helpful advice.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W
There will be at least a couple widely undrafted QBs who come up big today, and probably at least three largely ignored RBs. At least a half-dozen forgotten WRs will score 12+ points. Four or more TE2s/3s will post TE1 numbers.
How do we know? Because it happens every season. Last year in Week 1, Darius Slayton (with a WR-46 ADP) was the 9th-highest-scoring fantasy player with 28.2 points. Malcolm Brown (RB-70 ADP) was the 5th-highest-scoring RB with 26 points. The predictions in the previous paragraph are conservative. Half of all top-12 positional scorers might be players who, as of right now, have no business being in fantasy starting lineups.
These first 2-3 weeks are the shaking-out period. This is when we'll figure out which players are the key offensive pieces we thought they would be, and which ones are not--and who's taking their place. We'll also learn which players might have a "lucky" outburst here and there, but who in general can't be counted on. So we're all making the best decisions we can, and after today we'll be a little smarter about our team's needs.
Under this backdrop, I'm bringing back the DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. There are no guarantees, obviously. But based on what I think I know, I think I've produced a lineup that will get the job done. As always, these are for Sunday 1pm (Eastern) contests only, and it's based on FanDuel pricing. If you use DraftKings or some other service, you can usually get pretty close and might need to just swap out one player. I've done pretty well with these over the years. As some of you know, I don't compete in DFS very often, mostly because for me, gambling money lessens my enjoyment; if I care more about the money than about winning for winning's sake, my priorities are out of wack. That said, I've won two FanDuel tournaments vs. a combined 25,000+ people (and have won two longer fantasy contests vs. a combined 390,000+).
So my track record is good enough to say, "The following lineup is better than if my four-year-old took my phone and randomly pressed on some names." And between us and your computer/phone screen, I approach these lineups very seriously and really want you to win, and always put in way too much time to try to get these lineups just right. So here we go:
QB Sam Darnold ($6,500) -- Tied for the cheapest quarterback option this week, Darnold has surprisingly massive upside playing at home against the team that drafted him and gave up on him. I have long believed Darnold could thrive in a better system with improved talent. He has this in Carolina. I'm banking on 300+ yards and multiple scores.
RB Chris McCaffrey ($10,400) -- I use various DFS 50/50 strategies, and the QB/RB hedge is one of them, particularly in plus offensive matchups, and when the RB is a good pass-catcher. The Darnold/CMC combo checks all of these boxes. CMC is the priciest DFS play this week, and is also worth the investment.
RB Antonio Gibson ($7,000) -- Some of you believe Gibson could be a top-5 RB, and while I don't think he'll reach those heights, there's no doubt he could be Washington's trusted bellcow for a long time. 20+ touches are very realistic today, and a potentially elevated usage in the passing game could make him a small steal at this price.
WR Calvin Ridley ($8,100) -- As long as Atlanta's defense struggles, its top-heavy offense will thrive. I believe Ridley can hit 12/150/2 today.
WR Terry McLaurin ($6,900) -- My DFS strategy usually includes starting teams' #1 receivers. Not always, but usually. I want highly targeted players, and at this price McLaurin is a great get.
WR Robby Anderson ($6,200) -- Remember when I just wrote that I usually want teams' #1 receivers? Well sometimes I'll settle for less. Like Darnold, Anderson is facing his former team and was a must-start WR last year with an arguably less talented QB. He's a great bet for 15+ points.
TE T.J. Hockenson ($5,700) -- Hock might not be this cheap again until 2025. He could be this year's Darren Waller, or he could repeat last year's numbers. Either way, he's solid value this week.
FLEX Laviska Shenault Jr. ($5,600) -- I could start James Robinson instead, and if you believe in Robinson, go for it. Shenault is an ascending talent in a great matchup. I don't want to worry about Carlos Hyde poaching touches. Give me Shenault and 12+ points, and I'll be happy.
DST Bills ($3,600) -- One of the cheapest DSTs, and for good reason: Pittsburgh's offense includes four incredible talents, and Ben Roethlisberger doesn't make a lot of mistakes. But an amped-up Buffalo team playing at home is appealing enough to take the chance.
Good luck today. I'll be around as much as I can be to answer questions, and some of the FF4W commenters will be too. But if you have some ideas and want to share them with folks who have questions, please do. No one has a monopoly on helpful advice.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W