20 years, and a lot of overwhelming feelings, and I know these feelings are shared and amplified across our fantasy football community. Since this is a football blog and a form of escapism, I'll keep the focus on football, knowing there are always more important things, especially on a day like today.
As with past years, on Saturdays I offer my favorite bargains and busts for the Week 1 Sunday/Monday contests. All predictions are contrarian, in that they challenge expert-consensus rankings (as listed on Fantasy Pros' composite of 100+ experts). If I'm looking for a cheap bargain to plug into my lineup, I follow my own advice in these Saturday columns. If I'm feel confident enough to bench a good player--or at least reset expectations about their realistic production--then these write-ups are my guide.
In other words, as with everything else, these are real-world recommendations, not simply wacky predictions to see if I can impress people. These mirror how I'm approaching roster management and trade targets in my own league.
To start, Sam Darnold is my favorite bargain QB of the week--so much so that I added him off waivers earlier this week and am starting him over Ben Roethlisberger. Darnold's expert-consensus QB is 19. I like that he's facing a franchise that gave up on him, that he has at least three (possibly four) very talented people to throw to, and that one of these people (CMC) can single-handedly turn an otherwise middling QB performance into a great one. Of course, CMC also could score three TDs on one-yard runs. But I'm betting he racks up 60+ receiving yards, and that Darnold airs it out for another 250. 20+ points is very realistic. So is a top-8 finish. I'm also surprisingly high on Carson Wentz (consensus QB-26) at home against Seattle. So little is expected of Wentz this season. But when healthy he's an upgrade over Philip Rivers, and I think he'll crack the top 16.
And since I always take at least one bust at every position (to keep things fair/balanced), on the flip side Josh Allen (QB-4) is seemingly a weekly lock. But I'm concerned about him nabbing a top-10 performance against Pittsburgh's defense.
At running back, J.D. McKissick (RB-39) is ranked way too low. He averaged a healthy 12 fantasy points per game last year and is a good bet to produce as no worse than a flex option. And Kareem Hunt (RB-27) is a must-start flex+ in game against Kansas City that I'm betting will see plenty of touchdowns. On the flip side, as some of you might remember, I never pick a player whose injury status messes with his projections. In other words, I won't call Saquon Barkley overrated because he might not play, and even if he does, he might not get much of a workload. So looking elsewhere, Aaron Jones (RB-6) is my RB bust of the week. A.J. Dillon will be a bigger threat as the season goes on, and it starts tomorrow.
At WR, I've discussed Sammy Watkins before and will continue to until his value aligns with reality. His consensus WR-65 ranking is too low. He's a nothing-to-lose flyer on an NFL team desparate for playmakers. I also like (no surprise) Marquez Callaway (WR-48). He's been ridiculously undervalued all summer and probably will make regular appearances in the top 35 before long. On the flip side, Julio Jones is ranked 12th? As the presumed #2 receiver in a run-friendly offense, I can't understand why Julio is viewed as a dominant fantasy wideout.
Finally, if you don't have a top-14 TE and want to go boom-bust, look to Dan Arnold against the Jets. His TE-27 ranking is abysmal. I think he'll be a pleasant surprise. On the flip side, 8th-ranked Noah Fant seems is a weak-upside TE1. I think the Teddy Bridgewater-led Broncos will be more run-focused.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W
As with past years, on Saturdays I offer my favorite bargains and busts for the Week 1 Sunday/Monday contests. All predictions are contrarian, in that they challenge expert-consensus rankings (as listed on Fantasy Pros' composite of 100+ experts). If I'm looking for a cheap bargain to plug into my lineup, I follow my own advice in these Saturday columns. If I'm feel confident enough to bench a good player--or at least reset expectations about their realistic production--then these write-ups are my guide.
In other words, as with everything else, these are real-world recommendations, not simply wacky predictions to see if I can impress people. These mirror how I'm approaching roster management and trade targets in my own league.
To start, Sam Darnold is my favorite bargain QB of the week--so much so that I added him off waivers earlier this week and am starting him over Ben Roethlisberger. Darnold's expert-consensus QB is 19. I like that he's facing a franchise that gave up on him, that he has at least three (possibly four) very talented people to throw to, and that one of these people (CMC) can single-handedly turn an otherwise middling QB performance into a great one. Of course, CMC also could score three TDs on one-yard runs. But I'm betting he racks up 60+ receiving yards, and that Darnold airs it out for another 250. 20+ points is very realistic. So is a top-8 finish. I'm also surprisingly high on Carson Wentz (consensus QB-26) at home against Seattle. So little is expected of Wentz this season. But when healthy he's an upgrade over Philip Rivers, and I think he'll crack the top 16.
And since I always take at least one bust at every position (to keep things fair/balanced), on the flip side Josh Allen (QB-4) is seemingly a weekly lock. But I'm concerned about him nabbing a top-10 performance against Pittsburgh's defense.
At running back, J.D. McKissick (RB-39) is ranked way too low. He averaged a healthy 12 fantasy points per game last year and is a good bet to produce as no worse than a flex option. And Kareem Hunt (RB-27) is a must-start flex+ in game against Kansas City that I'm betting will see plenty of touchdowns. On the flip side, as some of you might remember, I never pick a player whose injury status messes with his projections. In other words, I won't call Saquon Barkley overrated because he might not play, and even if he does, he might not get much of a workload. So looking elsewhere, Aaron Jones (RB-6) is my RB bust of the week. A.J. Dillon will be a bigger threat as the season goes on, and it starts tomorrow.
At WR, I've discussed Sammy Watkins before and will continue to until his value aligns with reality. His consensus WR-65 ranking is too low. He's a nothing-to-lose flyer on an NFL team desparate for playmakers. I also like (no surprise) Marquez Callaway (WR-48). He's been ridiculously undervalued all summer and probably will make regular appearances in the top 35 before long. On the flip side, Julio Jones is ranked 12th? As the presumed #2 receiver in a run-friendly offense, I can't understand why Julio is viewed as a dominant fantasy wideout.
Finally, if you don't have a top-14 TE and want to go boom-bust, look to Dan Arnold against the Jets. His TE-27 ranking is abysmal. I think he'll be a pleasant surprise. On the flip side, 8th-ranked Noah Fant seems is a weak-upside TE1. I think the Teddy Bridgewater-led Broncos will be more run-focused.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W