Each summer I get major pushback on a small handful of players--guys I'm convinced won't do what the fantasy universe thinks they'll do, or vice versa. Today and tomorrow I want to highlight three players who've produced probably the most pushback this year: Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry. Tomorrow I'll focus on the latter two. Today it's all about Chubb--specifically, why I'm higher on him than more than 99.4% of the experts compiled by Fantasy Pros.
Chubb's been ranked #2 or #3 on my PPR draft board since the first release of my rankings in early August. Many of you have asked me to explain why. Many more have simply dismissed it as misguided, which of course I respect. But I want to take a moment to explain my reasoning, because it goes to how I think about first-round drafting.
For some people, the first round is about picking the best player. Usually that means whoever has the highest floor and highest ceiling--and in one-QB leagues, that generally means the #1 RB. I think of it largely the same way, but with the caveat that I don't necessarily want the best player available. I want someone with the highest probability of elite production. Last year Alvin Kamara led all RBs with 378 points. It was his third 300+ point season in four NFL campaigns. So last weekend, I was comfortable drafting Kamara at #2. But if I had picked third, and if CMC and Kamara were off the board, why would I possibly take Chubb?
Because despite his overall 10 ADP, Chubb deserves to be viewed as a top-3 pick. For starters, he was on a 16-game pace last year for 277 points, which would have made him the #4 RB. (And actually his projections were higher if you discount his first-quarter injury against the Cowboys that knocked him out of that game.) His improved offensive line, and Cleveland's improved defense, should keep Chubb relevant most weeks, for much of each game.
Also, last year Cleveland had a minus-11 point differential. By comparison, Tennessee had a plus-52 point differential. This is a useful comparison because neither Chubb nor Derrick Henry are heavily involved in the passing game. So if game flow doesn't favor running the ball heavily, both guys take a hit. Sure enough, when leading, Henry had 904 total yards on 154 touches. Chubb had only 657 total yards on 106 touches. Henry had 2,141 total yards and 17 scores. Chubb was on pace for 1,623 total yards and 16 scores. It's not hard to see how improved game flow could give Chubb an extra 150-250 yards, which could mean the difference between a near-elite RB and an elite RB.
Then there's the question of Kareem Hunt's role. Won't he limit Chubb's upside? After all, Hunt averaged 12.5 touches per game when Chubb started (not including when Chubb was knocked out in the opening quarter, when Hunt was forced to take over and rack up 23 touches). And Chubb averaged "only" 18 touches in his 11 full games. Yet he was still on pace for top-4 production.
While we don't know how things will play out this year, we do know that Chubb is capable of dominating, that he plays in a more favorable environment (o-line, defense, etc.) than he did last year, that a majority of his touches last year came when the Browns were ahead, and that he doesn't need CMC-level volume to return first-round value. We can make a case against any RB, including Chubb. But there's a mound of evidence pointing to another great (and hopefully injury-free) season, where last year's production should serve not as a ceiling, but as a floor.
Now the question becomes, who should be ranked ahead of him? For most people, it's a decent-sized list. So let's break down why I think Chubb is a safer early-first-round pick than most of them. Dalvin Cook (overall 2 ADP) had 350+ touches last year, and as I've shared many times, 350+ touch RBs throughout NFL history have averaged a 23% fantasy production decline the following season. It doesn't matter to me that Cook is an incredible talent. That's a yellow flag. Add to that his significant injury history, and I can't justify burning a first-round pick on him. Derrick Henry (4 ADP) is an even brighter yellow flag. 350+ touch / 700+ snap RBs (snap count has been a tracked NFL stat since 2012) have averaged a 44% fantasy-point decline the following year. Why would I risk taking Henry in the first round?
Elsewhere, I actually like Zeke Elliott (5 ADP), though not quite enough to rank him ahead of Chubb (it's actually pretty close). Saquon Barkley (8 ADP) is too risky to be a top-3 pick, period. Aaron Jones (9 ADP) is more likely to fall into a timeshare with A.J. Dillon than to match last year's top-5 production. And Jonathan Taylor (11 ADP) might have to compete a bit more for touches, thanks to Marlon Mack's return and Carson's Wentz's ability to stretch the field (vs. Philip Rivers' dinking-and-dunking offense).
So despite Chubb's overall 10 ADP, I trust him to produce at a high level. I trust him more than I do Taylor, Jones, Saquon, Zeke, Henry, and Cook. Aside from moderate injury risk, there's nothing significantly flawed about Chubb. That he doesn't catch many balls doesn't concern me. Henry doesn't either. What matters is whether 2020 was a fluke, or a sign of things to come. I believe it's a sign of things to come for one of the best young backs in the NFL, on one of the most run-friendly teams in the NFL.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737
Chubb's been ranked #2 or #3 on my PPR draft board since the first release of my rankings in early August. Many of you have asked me to explain why. Many more have simply dismissed it as misguided, which of course I respect. But I want to take a moment to explain my reasoning, because it goes to how I think about first-round drafting.
For some people, the first round is about picking the best player. Usually that means whoever has the highest floor and highest ceiling--and in one-QB leagues, that generally means the #1 RB. I think of it largely the same way, but with the caveat that I don't necessarily want the best player available. I want someone with the highest probability of elite production. Last year Alvin Kamara led all RBs with 378 points. It was his third 300+ point season in four NFL campaigns. So last weekend, I was comfortable drafting Kamara at #2. But if I had picked third, and if CMC and Kamara were off the board, why would I possibly take Chubb?
Because despite his overall 10 ADP, Chubb deserves to be viewed as a top-3 pick. For starters, he was on a 16-game pace last year for 277 points, which would have made him the #4 RB. (And actually his projections were higher if you discount his first-quarter injury against the Cowboys that knocked him out of that game.) His improved offensive line, and Cleveland's improved defense, should keep Chubb relevant most weeks, for much of each game.
Also, last year Cleveland had a minus-11 point differential. By comparison, Tennessee had a plus-52 point differential. This is a useful comparison because neither Chubb nor Derrick Henry are heavily involved in the passing game. So if game flow doesn't favor running the ball heavily, both guys take a hit. Sure enough, when leading, Henry had 904 total yards on 154 touches. Chubb had only 657 total yards on 106 touches. Henry had 2,141 total yards and 17 scores. Chubb was on pace for 1,623 total yards and 16 scores. It's not hard to see how improved game flow could give Chubb an extra 150-250 yards, which could mean the difference between a near-elite RB and an elite RB.
Then there's the question of Kareem Hunt's role. Won't he limit Chubb's upside? After all, Hunt averaged 12.5 touches per game when Chubb started (not including when Chubb was knocked out in the opening quarter, when Hunt was forced to take over and rack up 23 touches). And Chubb averaged "only" 18 touches in his 11 full games. Yet he was still on pace for top-4 production.
While we don't know how things will play out this year, we do know that Chubb is capable of dominating, that he plays in a more favorable environment (o-line, defense, etc.) than he did last year, that a majority of his touches last year came when the Browns were ahead, and that he doesn't need CMC-level volume to return first-round value. We can make a case against any RB, including Chubb. But there's a mound of evidence pointing to another great (and hopefully injury-free) season, where last year's production should serve not as a ceiling, but as a floor.
Now the question becomes, who should be ranked ahead of him? For most people, it's a decent-sized list. So let's break down why I think Chubb is a safer early-first-round pick than most of them. Dalvin Cook (overall 2 ADP) had 350+ touches last year, and as I've shared many times, 350+ touch RBs throughout NFL history have averaged a 23% fantasy production decline the following season. It doesn't matter to me that Cook is an incredible talent. That's a yellow flag. Add to that his significant injury history, and I can't justify burning a first-round pick on him. Derrick Henry (4 ADP) is an even brighter yellow flag. 350+ touch / 700+ snap RBs (snap count has been a tracked NFL stat since 2012) have averaged a 44% fantasy-point decline the following year. Why would I risk taking Henry in the first round?
Elsewhere, I actually like Zeke Elliott (5 ADP), though not quite enough to rank him ahead of Chubb (it's actually pretty close). Saquon Barkley (8 ADP) is too risky to be a top-3 pick, period. Aaron Jones (9 ADP) is more likely to fall into a timeshare with A.J. Dillon than to match last year's top-5 production. And Jonathan Taylor (11 ADP) might have to compete a bit more for touches, thanks to Marlon Mack's return and Carson's Wentz's ability to stretch the field (vs. Philip Rivers' dinking-and-dunking offense).
So despite Chubb's overall 10 ADP, I trust him to produce at a high level. I trust him more than I do Taylor, Jones, Saquon, Zeke, Henry, and Cook. Aside from moderate injury risk, there's nothing significantly flawed about Chubb. That he doesn't catch many balls doesn't concern me. Henry doesn't either. What matters is whether 2020 was a fluke, or a sign of things to come. I believe it's a sign of things to come for one of the best young backs in the NFL, on one of the most run-friendly teams in the NFL.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737