Thought I was done with research this season. But I want to win my league. And sometimes making discoveries is the best way to get a leg up. And since I like to share almost everything I uncover, here's part one of a two-part study. Part two will take me months and hopefully will be ready to unveil by next July, and I'll explain why below.
Some of you might remember my research into the correlation between preseason ADP and performance: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/adp-vs-scoring.html. I've added a new chart that condenses all of the old ones while creating multiple six-player groupings. We can see, for example, that preseason top-6 RBs collectively average about 90 points more than preseason bottom-half RB2s, and that these bottom-half RB2s aren't much better than preseason RB4s. That's pretty monumental.
I also added when each of these groups are getting drafted (based on this year's ADP) to help guide us through draft mistakes. For example, if we're investing a 9th-12th rounder on a supposedly elite DST, on average we're getting worse value than if we'd waited and drafted a back-end DST1 in the 12th-15th round.
But scoring points isn't the only story. I wanted to understand how many games these guys are playing. Would you rather draft a preseason high-end RB1 in the first round who plays 12 games, or a preseason high-end WR1 averaging 14 games while scoring, on average, more points? And why are all/most of those elite RBs always getting drafted before any of those WRs? Similarly, preseason top-6 QBs generally are drafted in rounds 2-5 (again, "generally"--there are exceptions). Yet they average about 50 more points and a little more than two extra games played vs. preseason top-6 RBs.
Forget everything we know about RBs. Yes, they anchor our fantasy teams. They're difference makers. If you have two high-functioning bellcows, you're on your way to the playoffs. But how reliable are they? Compared to other positions, the least reliable. We know this inherently. But seeing the games-played gap is staggering. We're drafting RBs in the first round despite the fact they'll miss, on average, nearly four games a season. And if those missed games come during the playoffs, was the investment worth it? Possibly, and possibly not. Yet seeing the differences between RBs and other positions--and even within the RB tiers--was enough to push me further away from the "I must draft bellcows" mindset. The risks are worth it, until the risks hit us in the face.
Part two of this research--the mammoth study--will examine preseason ADPs vs. performance and games played, broken down by month. So it's not enough to show that top-6 RBs average fewer games and score fewer total points than their QB and WR counterparts. I want to calculate risk across a whole season. Suppose top-6 RBs average 3.5 games played in September and October, 2.9 games played in November, and 2.2 games played in December/January. But suppose top-6 QBs average 3.7 / 3.7 / 3.5 / 3.2 games. If top QBs are 50% more likely to be on the field in the fantasy playoffs than top RBs, wouldn't that impact our thinking. It would certainly impact mine.
I'll hopefully be able to share findings next summer. For now, this new research can be found here: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/adp-vs-games-played.html
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Some of you might remember my research into the correlation between preseason ADP and performance: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/adp-vs-scoring.html. I've added a new chart that condenses all of the old ones while creating multiple six-player groupings. We can see, for example, that preseason top-6 RBs collectively average about 90 points more than preseason bottom-half RB2s, and that these bottom-half RB2s aren't much better than preseason RB4s. That's pretty monumental.
I also added when each of these groups are getting drafted (based on this year's ADP) to help guide us through draft mistakes. For example, if we're investing a 9th-12th rounder on a supposedly elite DST, on average we're getting worse value than if we'd waited and drafted a back-end DST1 in the 12th-15th round.
But scoring points isn't the only story. I wanted to understand how many games these guys are playing. Would you rather draft a preseason high-end RB1 in the first round who plays 12 games, or a preseason high-end WR1 averaging 14 games while scoring, on average, more points? And why are all/most of those elite RBs always getting drafted before any of those WRs? Similarly, preseason top-6 QBs generally are drafted in rounds 2-5 (again, "generally"--there are exceptions). Yet they average about 50 more points and a little more than two extra games played vs. preseason top-6 RBs.
Forget everything we know about RBs. Yes, they anchor our fantasy teams. They're difference makers. If you have two high-functioning bellcows, you're on your way to the playoffs. But how reliable are they? Compared to other positions, the least reliable. We know this inherently. But seeing the games-played gap is staggering. We're drafting RBs in the first round despite the fact they'll miss, on average, nearly four games a season. And if those missed games come during the playoffs, was the investment worth it? Possibly, and possibly not. Yet seeing the differences between RBs and other positions--and even within the RB tiers--was enough to push me further away from the "I must draft bellcows" mindset. The risks are worth it, until the risks hit us in the face.
Part two of this research--the mammoth study--will examine preseason ADPs vs. performance and games played, broken down by month. So it's not enough to show that top-6 RBs average fewer games and score fewer total points than their QB and WR counterparts. I want to calculate risk across a whole season. Suppose top-6 RBs average 3.5 games played in September and October, 2.9 games played in November, and 2.2 games played in December/January. But suppose top-6 QBs average 3.7 / 3.7 / 3.5 / 3.2 games. If top QBs are 50% more likely to be on the field in the fantasy playoffs than top RBs, wouldn't that impact our thinking. It would certainly impact mine.
I'll hopefully be able to share findings next summer. For now, this new research can be found here: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/adp-vs-games-played.html
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W