Sunday's done. Now let's try to make fantasy sense of it. As always, here's my rundown of the most notable fantasy impact for each Sunday team. But first, following up on my contrarian Saturday predictions. I was correct on six and wrong on four, with one remaining question mark (Sammy Watkins tonight). As always, these were picks that went against conventional wisdom / consensus expert opinion. Believing RB-4 Aaron Jones would be a bust is not for the sheepish. The goal is to make bold recommendations that are more likely right than wrong.
Also, if you used my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week, you won fairly comfortably thanks to strong games from Sam Darnold, CMC, and T.J. Hockenson. As always, these aren't designed to win tournaments (though sometimes they do pretty well in those). I do DFS tournament advising on the side, but DFS 50/50 will continue to be freely shared on this page, and I hope to maintain my roughly 65% win rate from years past.
And now, Sunday's games:
Falcons vs. Eagles -- Atlanta shouldn't have had this much trouble at home against Philly. But here we are. New head coach Arthur Smith took the blame, and maybe it's deserved. For now, Calvin Ridley is the only trusted offensive weapon, as there's no way he'll average only eight targets a game going forward. As for the Eagles, their top three receivers came through, and Jalen Hurts looked great. We should consider that this all happened against Atlanta's pitiful D. But with Zach Ertz getting knocked out early, there's a clear path for Devonta Smith and Jalen Reagor (as well as Dallas Goedert) to exceed expectations. We'll see what happens Week 2.
Bills vs. Steelers -- With Zack Moss a surprising scratch, Devin Singletary could be "the guy" for the forseeable future. While needy managers in smaller leagues probably can get him off waivers, I still don't trust him as more than an RB3. And I'm throwing out this game for Pittsburgh. The Raiders and Bengals are on the horizon, and I expect their offense to click better. Najee Harris is a great buy-low.
Bengals vs. Vikings -- Cincy almost threw this one away when they inexplicably went for it on 4th-and-1 at their own 30, despite being up 14 points in the 3rd quarter. It's one of those calls where the head coach might be called "gutsy" if he gets it right, but it's moronic regardless. Despite that, a late-overtime fumble turned an almost certain defeat into victory. There were several heroes. The biggest fantasy storyline is Joe Mixon, a late-second-round draft pick who I pushed as a first-round talent. He's on his way to 300+ touches and a huge season. On the flip side, Dalvin Cook got it done. But he lost a fumble and averaged only 3.1 yards per carry. You all know my views on him heading into this season. He remains a higher-than-normal injury/regression risk.
Lions vs. 49ers -- A beat reporter warned fantasy managers that De'Andre Swift's usage would be "limited." That was not the case. Swift picked up where he left off last season and is on his way to potentially proving me wrong (I didn't think he could replicate last year's per-game production). And I warned this community to avoid the surprisingly aged Raheem Mostert on draft day. There's too much talent in this backfield, and he's too injury-prone. With Trey Sermon a shocking scratch, Eli Mitchell could be the biggest waiver add on Wednesday.
Titans vs. Cardinals -- It's too soon to say if my warnings about Derrick Henry will prove justified. Maybe Arizona's defensive line was too tough. Maybe the new offensive scheme will take some getting used to. Whatever it is, Henry is the engine that drives this offense, and if he's due for the regression I anticipated, all Titans likely will regress with him. As for Arizona, James Conner's late-game touches shouldn't detract from the fact that Chase Edmonds is this team's deserved starter. I ranked him well ahead of his ADP, and he looks the part so far.
Colts vs. Seahawks -- An abysmal performance for Indy. Carson Wentz was aided by 12 catches from his RBs. Maybe he's rusty. But any hopes of Michael Pittman (one of my favorite undervalued WRs) or other wideouts stepping up will be a pipedream if Wentz can't return to his pre-2020 form. And Tyler Lockett, folks. Tyler Lockett. Bizarrely undervalued this summer. Really, no reason for it.
Washington vs. Chargers -- One of the worst possible starts for this team, as Ryan Fitzpatrick looked bad and then got knocked out. Most interestingly, J.D. McKissic caught zero passes on one target. If this is a sign of things to come, you know what to do. And Mike Williams went toe-to-toe with Keenan Allen, finishing with 12 targets. Williams is playing for a contract and could finally live up to the hype. On a side note, Austin Ekeler was catchless for the first time since 2018.
Panthers vs. Jets -- I predicted 300 yards and multiple scores for Sam Darnold, and he almost got there. It won't always be this easy, and Darnold certainly didn't look good for long stretches. But he's surrounded by talent, and that should earn him streaming success at least half of this season. And Corey Davis came through after a very slow start (and middle) for the Jets' offense. He's the only players on this team worth rostering.
Texans vs. Jaguars -- Mark Ingram dominated the backfield with 26 carries. He didn't look good, but with volume like this, no one looking for a weekly RB3+ can complain. And James Robinson was a bust. We'll know more next week whether this was because the Jags were playing from behind for most of the contest, or if Carlos Hyde has turned this into an RBBC.
Chiefs vs. Browns -- A possible prequel of this season's AFC Championship game. Remember, this column isn't about "who was the top performer." It's about the most notable fantasy storylines. CEH out-touched Darrel Williams 17-1. Although the efficiency might not be there, I love buying low on CEH as the clear #1 RB in an explosive offense that should reach the goal-line often. For Cleveland, I put much of my reputation this summer on Nick Chubb. Some doubted whether he could thrive playing alongside Kareem Hunt. Yesterday he was nearly brilliant on only 17 touches. That's how good he is and can continue to be, and that's why he was top-3 in my rankings.
Patriots vs. Dolphins -- I got this outcome wrong. Thought New England's revitalized defense would avenge last year's third-place AFC East finish. Credit Miami's coaches and players for getting the W. For the Pats, Damien Harris handled 25 touches, James White had 10, Rhamondre Stevenson had two, and Brandon Bolden had one. Harris and Stevenson both lost a fumble, but there's no way White or Bolden will take over this backfield. So Harris's job appears very safe. And for the Dolphins, Myles Gaskin did better than I expected with 12.6 points. I still don't trust him.
Saints vs. Packers -- Could anyone have predicted a Saints blowout. Simply incredible. Most notably, Tony Jones Jr. handled 12 touches, and handled them much better than Latavius Murray could have. And for Green Bay, let's not overreact. That said, A.J. Dillon looked as good if not better than Aaron Jones. As you all know, Dillon was my top RB handcuff target in drafts, in part because I strongly believed he'd push Jones into a timeshare. We'll know in the next couple weeks if this will happen sooner rather than later.
Giants vs. Broncos -- Saquon Barkley appears healthy. That's the biggest news coming out of New York. And Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon pretty much split touches. I ranked Williams considerably better than Gordon this summer, but Gordon dominated production. While I still believe in Williams' upside, this is concerning to those who want a resolution (a true lead back).
Rams vs. Bears -- Darrell Henderson was more of a bellcow than I anticipated. Sony Michel might be getting eased in. Or maybe it's officially Henderson's job to lose. As with most Week 1 performances among depth-chart battlers, we'll know more in the coming weeks. And Andy Dalton demonstrated why he never should have been named the Week 1 starter. Everyone except David Montgomery will continue to be downgraded, with the only hope being that an upcoming softer defensive schedule could get this offense (briefly) on track.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W
Also, if you used my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week, you won fairly comfortably thanks to strong games from Sam Darnold, CMC, and T.J. Hockenson. As always, these aren't designed to win tournaments (though sometimes they do pretty well in those). I do DFS tournament advising on the side, but DFS 50/50 will continue to be freely shared on this page, and I hope to maintain my roughly 65% win rate from years past.
And now, Sunday's games:
Falcons vs. Eagles -- Atlanta shouldn't have had this much trouble at home against Philly. But here we are. New head coach Arthur Smith took the blame, and maybe it's deserved. For now, Calvin Ridley is the only trusted offensive weapon, as there's no way he'll average only eight targets a game going forward. As for the Eagles, their top three receivers came through, and Jalen Hurts looked great. We should consider that this all happened against Atlanta's pitiful D. But with Zach Ertz getting knocked out early, there's a clear path for Devonta Smith and Jalen Reagor (as well as Dallas Goedert) to exceed expectations. We'll see what happens Week 2.
Bills vs. Steelers -- With Zack Moss a surprising scratch, Devin Singletary could be "the guy" for the forseeable future. While needy managers in smaller leagues probably can get him off waivers, I still don't trust him as more than an RB3. And I'm throwing out this game for Pittsburgh. The Raiders and Bengals are on the horizon, and I expect their offense to click better. Najee Harris is a great buy-low.
Bengals vs. Vikings -- Cincy almost threw this one away when they inexplicably went for it on 4th-and-1 at their own 30, despite being up 14 points in the 3rd quarter. It's one of those calls where the head coach might be called "gutsy" if he gets it right, but it's moronic regardless. Despite that, a late-overtime fumble turned an almost certain defeat into victory. There were several heroes. The biggest fantasy storyline is Joe Mixon, a late-second-round draft pick who I pushed as a first-round talent. He's on his way to 300+ touches and a huge season. On the flip side, Dalvin Cook got it done. But he lost a fumble and averaged only 3.1 yards per carry. You all know my views on him heading into this season. He remains a higher-than-normal injury/regression risk.
Lions vs. 49ers -- A beat reporter warned fantasy managers that De'Andre Swift's usage would be "limited." That was not the case. Swift picked up where he left off last season and is on his way to potentially proving me wrong (I didn't think he could replicate last year's per-game production). And I warned this community to avoid the surprisingly aged Raheem Mostert on draft day. There's too much talent in this backfield, and he's too injury-prone. With Trey Sermon a shocking scratch, Eli Mitchell could be the biggest waiver add on Wednesday.
Titans vs. Cardinals -- It's too soon to say if my warnings about Derrick Henry will prove justified. Maybe Arizona's defensive line was too tough. Maybe the new offensive scheme will take some getting used to. Whatever it is, Henry is the engine that drives this offense, and if he's due for the regression I anticipated, all Titans likely will regress with him. As for Arizona, James Conner's late-game touches shouldn't detract from the fact that Chase Edmonds is this team's deserved starter. I ranked him well ahead of his ADP, and he looks the part so far.
Colts vs. Seahawks -- An abysmal performance for Indy. Carson Wentz was aided by 12 catches from his RBs. Maybe he's rusty. But any hopes of Michael Pittman (one of my favorite undervalued WRs) or other wideouts stepping up will be a pipedream if Wentz can't return to his pre-2020 form. And Tyler Lockett, folks. Tyler Lockett. Bizarrely undervalued this summer. Really, no reason for it.
Washington vs. Chargers -- One of the worst possible starts for this team, as Ryan Fitzpatrick looked bad and then got knocked out. Most interestingly, J.D. McKissic caught zero passes on one target. If this is a sign of things to come, you know what to do. And Mike Williams went toe-to-toe with Keenan Allen, finishing with 12 targets. Williams is playing for a contract and could finally live up to the hype. On a side note, Austin Ekeler was catchless for the first time since 2018.
Panthers vs. Jets -- I predicted 300 yards and multiple scores for Sam Darnold, and he almost got there. It won't always be this easy, and Darnold certainly didn't look good for long stretches. But he's surrounded by talent, and that should earn him streaming success at least half of this season. And Corey Davis came through after a very slow start (and middle) for the Jets' offense. He's the only players on this team worth rostering.
Texans vs. Jaguars -- Mark Ingram dominated the backfield with 26 carries. He didn't look good, but with volume like this, no one looking for a weekly RB3+ can complain. And James Robinson was a bust. We'll know more next week whether this was because the Jags were playing from behind for most of the contest, or if Carlos Hyde has turned this into an RBBC.
Chiefs vs. Browns -- A possible prequel of this season's AFC Championship game. Remember, this column isn't about "who was the top performer." It's about the most notable fantasy storylines. CEH out-touched Darrel Williams 17-1. Although the efficiency might not be there, I love buying low on CEH as the clear #1 RB in an explosive offense that should reach the goal-line often. For Cleveland, I put much of my reputation this summer on Nick Chubb. Some doubted whether he could thrive playing alongside Kareem Hunt. Yesterday he was nearly brilliant on only 17 touches. That's how good he is and can continue to be, and that's why he was top-3 in my rankings.
Patriots vs. Dolphins -- I got this outcome wrong. Thought New England's revitalized defense would avenge last year's third-place AFC East finish. Credit Miami's coaches and players for getting the W. For the Pats, Damien Harris handled 25 touches, James White had 10, Rhamondre Stevenson had two, and Brandon Bolden had one. Harris and Stevenson both lost a fumble, but there's no way White or Bolden will take over this backfield. So Harris's job appears very safe. And for the Dolphins, Myles Gaskin did better than I expected with 12.6 points. I still don't trust him.
Saints vs. Packers -- Could anyone have predicted a Saints blowout. Simply incredible. Most notably, Tony Jones Jr. handled 12 touches, and handled them much better than Latavius Murray could have. And for Green Bay, let's not overreact. That said, A.J. Dillon looked as good if not better than Aaron Jones. As you all know, Dillon was my top RB handcuff target in drafts, in part because I strongly believed he'd push Jones into a timeshare. We'll know in the next couple weeks if this will happen sooner rather than later.
Giants vs. Broncos -- Saquon Barkley appears healthy. That's the biggest news coming out of New York. And Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon pretty much split touches. I ranked Williams considerably better than Gordon this summer, but Gordon dominated production. While I still believe in Williams' upside, this is concerning to those who want a resolution (a true lead back).
Rams vs. Bears -- Darrell Henderson was more of a bellcow than I anticipated. Sony Michel might be getting eased in. Or maybe it's officially Henderson's job to lose. As with most Week 1 performances among depth-chart battlers, we'll know more in the coming weeks. And Andy Dalton demonstrated why he never should have been named the Week 1 starter. Everyone except David Montgomery will continue to be downgraded, with the only hope being that an upcoming softer defensive schedule could get this offense (briefly) on track.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Follow on Twitter: @_FF4W