Today I want to analyze some of the surprising (and in some cases, downright shocking) early-season fantasy performers. Are they for real, or are they major regression candidates?
At QB, Daniel Jones is the #4 fantasy scorer, while Derek Carr (QB-8) and Jared Goff (QB-9) are only 2-3 points behind. Subscribers to my preseason rankings know that I pegged all three as undervalued: Jones by one spot, Carr by five spots, and Goff by 10 spots. That said, I could not have imagined any would be top-10 QBs, and I can't imagine two of them remaining in the top 10. Jones is the easiest regression candidate. He's accounted for all four of the Giants' TDs, which of course isn't sustainable, particularly once the running game gets going (if Saquon Barkley can't get healthy, then perhaps Devontae Booker). Jones's floor should be fine given his weapons. But I think top 14-16 is a realistic settling point. Carr and Goff are a big tougher to peg, though I'd give Goff the edge based on a higher pass-attempt ceiling and a plus pass-catching backfield. Goff was one of my favorite QB bargains two years ago, and he fell flat. The talent is there. Surely he can continue to hit 250+/2+ most of the season.
At RB, D'Andre Swift is the #6 scorer, while Darrell Henderson (#9) and the out-of-nowhere Cordarrelle Patterson (#10) are breaking through. As with Goff, Swift looks primed to exceed preseason expectations, as his passing-game usage is a difference maker. He's #2 in RB receptions and receiving yards and dominating on "only" 15.5 touches per game. Meanwhile, Henderson is once again injured, and just like last year when his ailments opened the door for Cam Akers, this year it might be too late to sell high. Assuming he'll return to an RBBC, Henderson is looking at an RB2/3 season with Sony Michel expected to get more involved. And Patterson . . . wow. It's taken nine seasons for the former first-rounder to look like a former first-rounder. (Maybe that's not entirely fair, but you get my meaning.) Patterson will assuredly regress; he's averaging only 10.5 touches in his first two contests and has scored twice. He's not going to turn into a bellcow. He's more likely to revert to prime Duke Johnson-like production (RB2/3), and probably closer to a mid-range to back-end RB3. He's been a great find for deep-leaguers, and managers should have realistic expectations going forward.
Aside from Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins, all other top-10 WRs are modest-to-extraordinary surprises based on preseason ADP. Most notably, Deebo Samuel (#3) has benefitted from a slow start by George Kittle and a painfully slow start by Brandon Aiyuk. It also should be said that most of Deebo's damage occurred against Detroit. So if I had been smart enough to draft him, I would be dumping him off immediately for WR1 value (or high-end WR2 value if there were no takers). He is both talented and way overpriced, on the assumption Kittle and Aiyuk will get back on track. I also want to highlight Mike Williams (#5) and Marquise Brown (#8). Like Deebo, Brown has excelled in part because of an injury-depleted receiver corps. I'm not convinced Lamar Jackson can feed more than two receivers most games, and with Mark Andrews presumably still a TE1, Sammy Watkins flashing, and first-rounder Rashod Bateman on the mend, Brown won't be a seemingly reliable top-20 WR for much longer. As for Mike Williams, I cashed out on Keenan Allen--either smartly or stupidly--last week in the belief that Williams could challenge him for the #1 job. Sounds crazy, or at least improbable. But Williams has never lacked for talent. He was a slight bargain in my rankings, and I'm kicking myself for not having the courage to make him a bigger bargain. He's the real deal in one of the league's most top-heavy offenses.
At TE, Juwan Johnson (#7) and Jack Doyle (#10) are the biggest surprises. If you're savvy enough to have started either of them, congratulations. Now trade them before their value plummets. Johnson is averaging three targets a game and, despite obvious red-zone chemistry with Jameis Winston, is a weekly dart throw who just happens to have hit two straight bullseyes. And Doyle hasn't been fantasy relevant since 2017 and probably won't finish in the top 20.
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At QB, Daniel Jones is the #4 fantasy scorer, while Derek Carr (QB-8) and Jared Goff (QB-9) are only 2-3 points behind. Subscribers to my preseason rankings know that I pegged all three as undervalued: Jones by one spot, Carr by five spots, and Goff by 10 spots. That said, I could not have imagined any would be top-10 QBs, and I can't imagine two of them remaining in the top 10. Jones is the easiest regression candidate. He's accounted for all four of the Giants' TDs, which of course isn't sustainable, particularly once the running game gets going (if Saquon Barkley can't get healthy, then perhaps Devontae Booker). Jones's floor should be fine given his weapons. But I think top 14-16 is a realistic settling point. Carr and Goff are a big tougher to peg, though I'd give Goff the edge based on a higher pass-attempt ceiling and a plus pass-catching backfield. Goff was one of my favorite QB bargains two years ago, and he fell flat. The talent is there. Surely he can continue to hit 250+/2+ most of the season.
At RB, D'Andre Swift is the #6 scorer, while Darrell Henderson (#9) and the out-of-nowhere Cordarrelle Patterson (#10) are breaking through. As with Goff, Swift looks primed to exceed preseason expectations, as his passing-game usage is a difference maker. He's #2 in RB receptions and receiving yards and dominating on "only" 15.5 touches per game. Meanwhile, Henderson is once again injured, and just like last year when his ailments opened the door for Cam Akers, this year it might be too late to sell high. Assuming he'll return to an RBBC, Henderson is looking at an RB2/3 season with Sony Michel expected to get more involved. And Patterson . . . wow. It's taken nine seasons for the former first-rounder to look like a former first-rounder. (Maybe that's not entirely fair, but you get my meaning.) Patterson will assuredly regress; he's averaging only 10.5 touches in his first two contests and has scored twice. He's not going to turn into a bellcow. He's more likely to revert to prime Duke Johnson-like production (RB2/3), and probably closer to a mid-range to back-end RB3. He's been a great find for deep-leaguers, and managers should have realistic expectations going forward.
Aside from Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins, all other top-10 WRs are modest-to-extraordinary surprises based on preseason ADP. Most notably, Deebo Samuel (#3) has benefitted from a slow start by George Kittle and a painfully slow start by Brandon Aiyuk. It also should be said that most of Deebo's damage occurred against Detroit. So if I had been smart enough to draft him, I would be dumping him off immediately for WR1 value (or high-end WR2 value if there were no takers). He is both talented and way overpriced, on the assumption Kittle and Aiyuk will get back on track. I also want to highlight Mike Williams (#5) and Marquise Brown (#8). Like Deebo, Brown has excelled in part because of an injury-depleted receiver corps. I'm not convinced Lamar Jackson can feed more than two receivers most games, and with Mark Andrews presumably still a TE1, Sammy Watkins flashing, and first-rounder Rashod Bateman on the mend, Brown won't be a seemingly reliable top-20 WR for much longer. As for Mike Williams, I cashed out on Keenan Allen--either smartly or stupidly--last week in the belief that Williams could challenge him for the #1 job. Sounds crazy, or at least improbable. But Williams has never lacked for talent. He was a slight bargain in my rankings, and I'm kicking myself for not having the courage to make him a bigger bargain. He's the real deal in one of the league's most top-heavy offenses.
At TE, Juwan Johnson (#7) and Jack Doyle (#10) are the biggest surprises. If you're savvy enough to have started either of them, congratulations. Now trade them before their value plummets. Johnson is averaging three targets a game and, despite obvious red-zone chemistry with Jameis Winston, is a weekly dart throw who just happens to have hit two straight bullseyes. And Doyle hasn't been fantasy relevant since 2017 and probably won't finish in the top 20.
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