Most of us are finished with drafting. But I want to share some final thoughts before the season gets going. Last night I was hired at the last minute (about 90 minutes to prep) to draft for a guy who's recovering from COVID and hadn't had time to study. 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 Kicker, and 5 defensive players (combination of LBs, DEs, and DBs). 10 teams. There were also some scoring quirks that rewarded the highest-performing players.
Believe it or not (believe it), I've never done an IDP draft. So I spent 30 minutes on IDP research, 30 minutes assessing last year's positional scoring breakdowns, 20 minutes developing a round-by-round strategic plan, five minutes trash talking on the comment board (the guy I was drafting for encouraged me to let loose), one minute showing my wife how good I am at trash-talking, and four minutes trying to convince her that my trash-talking is effective, and not simply a waste of time (which, in hindsight, it was).
I want to take a few moments to focus on the middle sections. Positional scoring breakdowns help us with draft strategy--not that these breakdowns play out as expected each year, but they help inform where and when we should focus our attention during the draft. For example, in thie league Curtis Samuel was the 25th best WR with 214.1 points last year. The 50th best, Darnell Mooney, scored 153.1. That 61-point gap is less than half the gap between Travis Kelce and the #3 TE, Logan Thomas.
So why would anyone lunge for, say, a WR3 unless you felt confident that WR3 could be at least top 15, if not top 10? Plenty of WR3s went off the board in the 6th-8th rounds. While that was happening, I took one of the last remaining starting RBs (Mike Davis) and the consensus top-2 LBs (Darius Leonard and Devin White). Then in the 9th round I drafted Robby Anderson, who has about as good shot at being a WR3+ as most of the WRs drafted in rounds 6-8. So if you're unsure who to take in a middle round, don't just take a position to fill a position. I'd filled only one WR slot in those first eight rounds. But I was confident enough about the remaining WR talent--and the scoring rules--to load up at other positions to maximize value.
Developing a round-by-round plan is also key, or at least that's what I've found. Drafts can be stressful. Sometimes it's hard to stay focused. I admit that sometimes I get rattled, especially when someone I'm heavily targeting is snatched right before my turn. But if there's a plan in place, then we can fall back on it when needed. And when unexpected opportunities arise, of course we should feel empowered to depart from the plan. It's there to keep us on track, and it should be designed with enough "if-then" scenarios to keep it relevant for as long as possible.
The plan I quickly developed last night was based on the scoring rules, how players were ranked, and acquiring elite players whenever possible. Picking 5th, I mapped out who might fall to me in the first three rounds, and then looser goals in the next several rounds. So when Alvin Kamara fell to me at #5, I didn't hesitate. When Darren Waller fell in round 2 (the guy I was drafting for really wanted Waller, so that helped), I pounced. Round 3 was a choice between Calvin Ridley, Joe Mixon, and a range of option 3 possibilities. Ridley was taken the pick before, so I took Mixon.
Then, as we all know, the draft starts to open up. Best-laid plans start going out the window. Except they don't have to. I still knew I wanted a top-6 QB, at least one WR1, some RB depth, and as many of the best defensive players I could get without overpaying. So I took Keenan Allen and Kyler Murray next. Then after Davis, the two LBs, and Anderson, I added RB depth with Nyheim Hines; with only four bench spots, my strategy of loading up on RB handcuffs took a backseat to getting startable fantasy RBs for bye-week spot-starts. Then Marquez Callaway and A.J. Dillon (I had to take my favorite handcuff). Then a near-elite DB, Michael Thomas, and a strong potential near-elite kicker (Ryan Succop). And finally a near-elite DE, Alexander Mattison (ok, two handcuffs), and a top 12-14 LB.
So by sticking (mostly) to my plan, I secured a potentially elite QB, an elite RB, an elite TE, two elite LBs, two other near-elite defensive players, and a near-elite kicker. I also landed a strong potential top-10 RB and top-10 WR.
The main vulnerability is at WR, where I drafted two starting WRs who might be merely top 25-35, or could be top 20 if things break right. But regardless, the manager of this team will lose only a few points per week at these two spots compared to his opponents. And his advantage at nearly every other position will more than make up for this deficit.
So my final thoughts about drafting are to ignore the pressure of drafting "good" players until the board is running out of good players. Before then, keep the focus on "great." If you've drafted RB-RB-TE and are desperate for a WR, and the best WR is a top 16-20 option, pause and think about what you're doing. If you can get a QB projected to score 50+ points more than most other QB1s, there's probably better value in taking that QB than in taking a WR projected to score only 15-25 more points than WRs you can get in the next round. The strategy is obvious. But I continually see people buckle under the pressure of "filling lineup holes." Nonsense. If you can fill those gaps in round 8-10 almost as well as you can in rounds 5-7, then there's your answer.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737
Believe it or not (believe it), I've never done an IDP draft. So I spent 30 minutes on IDP research, 30 minutes assessing last year's positional scoring breakdowns, 20 minutes developing a round-by-round strategic plan, five minutes trash talking on the comment board (the guy I was drafting for encouraged me to let loose), one minute showing my wife how good I am at trash-talking, and four minutes trying to convince her that my trash-talking is effective, and not simply a waste of time (which, in hindsight, it was).
I want to take a few moments to focus on the middle sections. Positional scoring breakdowns help us with draft strategy--not that these breakdowns play out as expected each year, but they help inform where and when we should focus our attention during the draft. For example, in thie league Curtis Samuel was the 25th best WR with 214.1 points last year. The 50th best, Darnell Mooney, scored 153.1. That 61-point gap is less than half the gap between Travis Kelce and the #3 TE, Logan Thomas.
So why would anyone lunge for, say, a WR3 unless you felt confident that WR3 could be at least top 15, if not top 10? Plenty of WR3s went off the board in the 6th-8th rounds. While that was happening, I took one of the last remaining starting RBs (Mike Davis) and the consensus top-2 LBs (Darius Leonard and Devin White). Then in the 9th round I drafted Robby Anderson, who has about as good shot at being a WR3+ as most of the WRs drafted in rounds 6-8. So if you're unsure who to take in a middle round, don't just take a position to fill a position. I'd filled only one WR slot in those first eight rounds. But I was confident enough about the remaining WR talent--and the scoring rules--to load up at other positions to maximize value.
Developing a round-by-round plan is also key, or at least that's what I've found. Drafts can be stressful. Sometimes it's hard to stay focused. I admit that sometimes I get rattled, especially when someone I'm heavily targeting is snatched right before my turn. But if there's a plan in place, then we can fall back on it when needed. And when unexpected opportunities arise, of course we should feel empowered to depart from the plan. It's there to keep us on track, and it should be designed with enough "if-then" scenarios to keep it relevant for as long as possible.
The plan I quickly developed last night was based on the scoring rules, how players were ranked, and acquiring elite players whenever possible. Picking 5th, I mapped out who might fall to me in the first three rounds, and then looser goals in the next several rounds. So when Alvin Kamara fell to me at #5, I didn't hesitate. When Darren Waller fell in round 2 (the guy I was drafting for really wanted Waller, so that helped), I pounced. Round 3 was a choice between Calvin Ridley, Joe Mixon, and a range of option 3 possibilities. Ridley was taken the pick before, so I took Mixon.
Then, as we all know, the draft starts to open up. Best-laid plans start going out the window. Except they don't have to. I still knew I wanted a top-6 QB, at least one WR1, some RB depth, and as many of the best defensive players I could get without overpaying. So I took Keenan Allen and Kyler Murray next. Then after Davis, the two LBs, and Anderson, I added RB depth with Nyheim Hines; with only four bench spots, my strategy of loading up on RB handcuffs took a backseat to getting startable fantasy RBs for bye-week spot-starts. Then Marquez Callaway and A.J. Dillon (I had to take my favorite handcuff). Then a near-elite DB, Michael Thomas, and a strong potential near-elite kicker (Ryan Succop). And finally a near-elite DE, Alexander Mattison (ok, two handcuffs), and a top 12-14 LB.
So by sticking (mostly) to my plan, I secured a potentially elite QB, an elite RB, an elite TE, two elite LBs, two other near-elite defensive players, and a near-elite kicker. I also landed a strong potential top-10 RB and top-10 WR.
The main vulnerability is at WR, where I drafted two starting WRs who might be merely top 25-35, or could be top 20 if things break right. But regardless, the manager of this team will lose only a few points per week at these two spots compared to his opponents. And his advantage at nearly every other position will more than make up for this deficit.
So my final thoughts about drafting are to ignore the pressure of drafting "good" players until the board is running out of good players. Before then, keep the focus on "great." If you've drafted RB-RB-TE and are desperate for a WR, and the best WR is a top 16-20 option, pause and think about what you're doing. If you can get a QB projected to score 50+ points more than most other QB1s, there's probably better value in taking that QB than in taking a WR projected to score only 15-25 more points than WRs you can get in the next round. The strategy is obvious. But I continually see people buckle under the pressure of "filling lineup holes." Nonsense. If you can fill those gaps in round 8-10 almost as well as you can in rounds 5-7, then there's your answer.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737