Well folks, we're almost at the real starting line: Week 1. The week that probably produces the most Wednesday-morning waiver adds all season. A decent number of those adds are then dropped 2-3 weeks later, once it's clear that opening game was a fluke.
Some things to keep in mind and in perspective this year:
The 17-game season means some fantasy records probably will be broken. After 10 weeks last season Kyler Murray was on pace to exceed Patrick Mahomes' record QB fantasy output by something like 20. Around midseason there were three or four other QBs on pace to surpass Mahomes. Throw in another game, and we could see elite QBs obliterate past marks for excellence. The same goes for other positions, though RBs will be interesting to watch. Could we see more 300-touch backs? There's been a steady decline the past 20 years: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/rb-rushes-and-receptions.html. If I'm wrong about RBs--if this year we see a bellcow resurgence--then it will be even more interesting to see how those high-usage RBs respond next year.
Then there's COVID. This is the elephant in the room, because it's not fun to think about games getting postponed or even canceled. We should be prepared for waking up one morning to discover that, for example, our #1 WR won't play that week because 18 teammates have been placed on the reserve/COVID list, and so the NFL has opted to reschedule the game for their bye in four weeks. What do we do? How much FAAB should we spend on a replacement? Do leagues have enough bench spots to accommodate this, so people don't have to drop good players simply to field a full lineup?
There will be times this season when "success" is measured by how many of our good players are active that week.
Many, many undraftable players will "come out of nowhere" to dominate one or more weeks. Many will be RB handcuffs. Some will be QB3s. Others will be WR6s/7s forced into the starting lineup. Whatever the scenario, there's no excuse for giving up on one's team. Talent is everywhere. This year more than any, opportunities will arise out of nowhere. So we should be forward-thinking with our roster management, knowing our lineups might go through several iteratios--not just each month, but at times within the same week.
So things are about to get intense. Not the 2019 version of intense. There might not be another season like 2021.
Good luck to everyone who's drafting tonight. If you want to donate to receive my rankings, click below. If you have questions or want to bounce around ideas, as always I and the FF4W commenters will be here to share our two cents. If you want more hands-on fantasy advice--rapid-response text messaging, weekly RB handcuff rankings, DFS lineup sessions, etc.--sign up using the link below, or reach out if you have questions about how it works. And if you want to join the free NFL Survivor pool (winner gets a 30-minute strategy session next summer to help you prep for your draft), sign up using the other link below.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737
Some things to keep in mind and in perspective this year:
The 17-game season means some fantasy records probably will be broken. After 10 weeks last season Kyler Murray was on pace to exceed Patrick Mahomes' record QB fantasy output by something like 20. Around midseason there were three or four other QBs on pace to surpass Mahomes. Throw in another game, and we could see elite QBs obliterate past marks for excellence. The same goes for other positions, though RBs will be interesting to watch. Could we see more 300-touch backs? There's been a steady decline the past 20 years: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/rb-rushes-and-receptions.html. If I'm wrong about RBs--if this year we see a bellcow resurgence--then it will be even more interesting to see how those high-usage RBs respond next year.
Then there's COVID. This is the elephant in the room, because it's not fun to think about games getting postponed or even canceled. We should be prepared for waking up one morning to discover that, for example, our #1 WR won't play that week because 18 teammates have been placed on the reserve/COVID list, and so the NFL has opted to reschedule the game for their bye in four weeks. What do we do? How much FAAB should we spend on a replacement? Do leagues have enough bench spots to accommodate this, so people don't have to drop good players simply to field a full lineup?
There will be times this season when "success" is measured by how many of our good players are active that week.
Many, many undraftable players will "come out of nowhere" to dominate one or more weeks. Many will be RB handcuffs. Some will be QB3s. Others will be WR6s/7s forced into the starting lineup. Whatever the scenario, there's no excuse for giving up on one's team. Talent is everywhere. This year more than any, opportunities will arise out of nowhere. So we should be forward-thinking with our roster management, knowing our lineups might go through several iteratios--not just each month, but at times within the same week.
So things are about to get intense. Not the 2019 version of intense. There might not be another season like 2021.
Good luck to everyone who's drafting tonight. If you want to donate to receive my rankings, click below. If you have questions or want to bounce around ideas, as always I and the FF4W commenters will be here to share our two cents. If you want more hands-on fantasy advice--rapid-response text messaging, weekly RB handcuff rankings, DFS lineup sessions, etc.--sign up using the link below, or reach out if you have questions about how it works. And if you want to join the free NFL Survivor pool (winner gets a 30-minute strategy session next summer to help you prep for your draft), sign up using the other link below.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737