A couple days ago a fantasy manager tweeted a draft question: Zeke Elliott or Austin Ekeler at pick #7. I know who I'd want (based on my rankings), but a good case could be made for each. So we need to look deeper at the implications. Specifically, how will it impact the rest of our draft strategy? This is the kind of thinking that doesn't always show up on rankings, because it's subjective. It's based on how each of you wants to design your team, what risks you're willing to take, and what rewards you're aiming for.
Since this manager likes both RBs equally, I wanted to give him something else to think about: whether considering keepers, drafting, or managing in-season. And this is something I believe more people should be thinking about. Zeke has a true backup: Tony Pollard. Pollard is a proven valued handcuff. If Zeke gets hurt, there's a high probability Pollard will become the bellcow, and that he'll be no worse than an RB2. His overall ADP is a truly ridiculous 132. He was the 116th player taken in my competitive PFFL league. Almost any of us can get him in the 9th or 10th round of a 12-team league. So, not a big draft investment if you take Zeke.
But if you keep/draft Ekeler, who's your insurance policy? Justin Jackson (250 ADP) could become the #2, but I wouldn't call him a true handcuff even if he claimed the job, because he could easily be replaced with one bad game, or even one bad possession. Some say rookie Larry Rountree (302 ADP) will be Ekeler's backup. But he's a sixth-round rookie and can't possibly be as trusted as Pollard. And even though Joshua Kelley (365 ADP) probably will be the #4 back, it's not hard to imagine him poaching some touches here and there if Ekeler's sidelined.
So by taking Ekeler, you're committing to either one unreliable handcuff. Or you're burning two picks to hedge your bets, and then hoping one of them locks down the job--knowing they could split touches, which would upend your entire strategy.
When I'm drafting an RB, I want a clean path to a handcuff. I want a near-guarantee that if my starter gets hurt, my lineup is as minimally impacted as possible. The arrival of Royce Freeman in Carolina impacts Chuba Hubbard's likelihood of being the bellcow if CMC goes down--which by extension, impacts CMC's value just a tiny bit. The same goes for Alvin Kamara with Latavius Murray and Tony Jones. And so on. This doesn't mean we knock these RBs down several spots. It does mean we need to be aware of risks and rewards--and how they should influence our drafting and management decisions.
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Since this manager likes both RBs equally, I wanted to give him something else to think about: whether considering keepers, drafting, or managing in-season. And this is something I believe more people should be thinking about. Zeke has a true backup: Tony Pollard. Pollard is a proven valued handcuff. If Zeke gets hurt, there's a high probability Pollard will become the bellcow, and that he'll be no worse than an RB2. His overall ADP is a truly ridiculous 132. He was the 116th player taken in my competitive PFFL league. Almost any of us can get him in the 9th or 10th round of a 12-team league. So, not a big draft investment if you take Zeke.
But if you keep/draft Ekeler, who's your insurance policy? Justin Jackson (250 ADP) could become the #2, but I wouldn't call him a true handcuff even if he claimed the job, because he could easily be replaced with one bad game, or even one bad possession. Some say rookie Larry Rountree (302 ADP) will be Ekeler's backup. But he's a sixth-round rookie and can't possibly be as trusted as Pollard. And even though Joshua Kelley (365 ADP) probably will be the #4 back, it's not hard to imagine him poaching some touches here and there if Ekeler's sidelined.
So by taking Ekeler, you're committing to either one unreliable handcuff. Or you're burning two picks to hedge your bets, and then hoping one of them locks down the job--knowing they could split touches, which would upend your entire strategy.
When I'm drafting an RB, I want a clean path to a handcuff. I want a near-guarantee that if my starter gets hurt, my lineup is as minimally impacted as possible. The arrival of Royce Freeman in Carolina impacts Chuba Hubbard's likelihood of being the bellcow if CMC goes down--which by extension, impacts CMC's value just a tiny bit. The same goes for Alvin Kamara with Latavius Murray and Tony Jones. And so on. This doesn't mean we knock these RBs down several spots. It does mean we need to be aware of risks and rewards--and how they should influence our drafting and management decisions.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737