As we approach the final weekend before the start of the season, a few quick reminders before jumping into more contrarian preditions: (1) If you want to sign up for the free FF4W NFL Survivor pool, click the link at the bottom. The winner gets social media shout-outs and 30 minutes (yes, 1,800 seconds) on the phone with me for a deep-dive fantasy strategy conversation next summer. Or scrap the phone call and use that time to take up a musical instrument.
(2) If you want to sign up for my annual preseason rankings, click that link at the bottom. These rankings are updated daily based on new info, new research, etc. They are highly unconventional, but they have proven to be more accurate than ADP. In the past few years, more than 1,000 of you have signed up. I'd like to reach 10,000 by the year 2056, at which time I will hand off FF4W to my as-yet-unborn grandchildren (my kids don't even know how babies are made, but I like to plan ahead).
(3) If you want to sign up for Personalized Fantasy Advice, click that link at the bottom. Some of you have hired me to develop ultra-customized rankings--each of which comes with a 1-2 page strategic drafting plan (yes, tapping into my corporate marketing background) and round-by-round recommendations based on draft flow. Others have hired me as your Substitute Drafter, where I draft your team as if it were my own, and then hand it back to you as if it were actually yours (because it is). There are services for the preseason and regular season. Sign up if it'll bring you joy.
---
My predictions today should surprise no one--not only because I telegraphed it yesterday, but also because I haven't held back on either player all summer. Dalvin Cook (RB-2 ADP) is a seemingly can't miss elite RB. Sure, he's had injury issues throughout his (relatively) young career. But that's true for a lot of RBs, right? Cook can dominate like few players at any position. Last season he had 95+ rushing yards nine times to go with a whopping 17 TDs in only 14 games. 163 of 167 experts (98%) rank him in the top 4, and none of the other four experts ranks him outside the top 7. But I do. Cook's 350+ touches last year are a yellow flag, as are his 669 snaps. Historically, most players with his usage regress the following year, whether because of injuries and/or diminished production. I am confident that Cook won't be a top-8 RB.
And I'm even more confident about the seemingly invincible Derrick Henry (RB-4 ADP). Gotta say, I was proud to see in my Group A PFFL draft that Henry dropped to 10th pick, which is insane when you think about it--for a guy who's consistently coming off the board in the top 5. But it's entirely justified. Throughout NFL history, 350+ touch RBs average a 23% fantasy regression the next year. And since snap counts started getting tracked in the NFL in 2012, 350+ touch RBs who've been on the field for 700+ snaps have averaged a 44% fantasy regression the next year. It's hard to ignore those numbers. Yet most experts have. None of them place him lower than 13th. I have him at 15th. In fact, 158 of 167 (95%) rank him in the top 10. I'd be shocked if he played more than 12 games, and I firmly believe he won't be a top-10 RB. Don't burn a first-round pick on such a high-risk option.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737
(2) If you want to sign up for my annual preseason rankings, click that link at the bottom. These rankings are updated daily based on new info, new research, etc. They are highly unconventional, but they have proven to be more accurate than ADP. In the past few years, more than 1,000 of you have signed up. I'd like to reach 10,000 by the year 2056, at which time I will hand off FF4W to my as-yet-unborn grandchildren (my kids don't even know how babies are made, but I like to plan ahead).
(3) If you want to sign up for Personalized Fantasy Advice, click that link at the bottom. Some of you have hired me to develop ultra-customized rankings--each of which comes with a 1-2 page strategic drafting plan (yes, tapping into my corporate marketing background) and round-by-round recommendations based on draft flow. Others have hired me as your Substitute Drafter, where I draft your team as if it were my own, and then hand it back to you as if it were actually yours (because it is). There are services for the preseason and regular season. Sign up if it'll bring you joy.
---
My predictions today should surprise no one--not only because I telegraphed it yesterday, but also because I haven't held back on either player all summer. Dalvin Cook (RB-2 ADP) is a seemingly can't miss elite RB. Sure, he's had injury issues throughout his (relatively) young career. But that's true for a lot of RBs, right? Cook can dominate like few players at any position. Last season he had 95+ rushing yards nine times to go with a whopping 17 TDs in only 14 games. 163 of 167 experts (98%) rank him in the top 4, and none of the other four experts ranks him outside the top 7. But I do. Cook's 350+ touches last year are a yellow flag, as are his 669 snaps. Historically, most players with his usage regress the following year, whether because of injuries and/or diminished production. I am confident that Cook won't be a top-8 RB.
And I'm even more confident about the seemingly invincible Derrick Henry (RB-4 ADP). Gotta say, I was proud to see in my Group A PFFL draft that Henry dropped to 10th pick, which is insane when you think about it--for a guy who's consistently coming off the board in the top 5. But it's entirely justified. Throughout NFL history, 350+ touch RBs average a 23% fantasy regression the next year. And since snap counts started getting tracked in the NFL in 2012, 350+ touch RBs who've been on the field for 700+ snaps have averaged a 44% fantasy regression the next year. It's hard to ignore those numbers. Yet most experts have. None of them place him lower than 13th. I have him at 15th. In fact, 158 of 167 (95%) rank him in the top 10. I'd be shocked if he played more than 12 games, and I firmly believe he won't be a top-10 RB. Don't burn a first-round pick on such a high-risk option.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737