A lot of NFL cuts yesterday, as expected. Formerly semi-notable names like Wayne Gallman, John Brown, and Chris Hogan. More interestingly, Houston dumped Keke Coutee. Subscribers to the FF4W rankings will see later this week that I haven't lowered Coutee's outlook, because it's quite possible he'll wind up as a #3/4 receiving option on a better team. And most shockingly (not really, but yeah . . .), the Patriots parted ways with Cam Newton. Bill Belichick must love what he sees in Mac Jones--or else he doesn't want to deal with Cam anymore. Regardless, it's obviously a big deal, and I'd be shocked if another team (Houston?) doesn't take a flyer on him.
Now, back to contrarian predictions. Gotta say, they're tough this year. COVID is the big wild card. Add to that a 17-game season, and we're really in uncharted territory. But there are two TE bargains I've been tracking all summer, and based on ADP they're still bargains. So if you don't land a top-6/7 option and want to wait 'til the end of the draft, both of the following should be top 16 options with a legit shot at low-end QB1 production.
Austin Hooper (TE-21 ADP) is one of many, many players in recent years to be ranked *exactly* as they finished the previous year. Of course, Hooper missed three games, so his #21 finish in 2020 is misleading. But the warning is well taken: his days as a TE1 appear to be over. Unlike in Atlanta, Hooper is an afterthough in Cleveland's run-friendly offense. But I'm convinced the Browns didn't make Hooper one of the highest-salaried TEs so he could block and catch 3-4 balls for 33 yards a game. Last year he was woefully underutilized. Most experts don't see his situation changing much, as 156 of 164 (95%) rank him outside the top 14. I'm banking on him as a top-14 TE.
Meanwhile, there's no good reason why Cole Kmet has a TE-23 ADP. I supposed some people want to see if the former second-rounder can make a second-year leap. But really, it's ludicrous to think Jimmy Graham will continue to "dominate" this tandem. The almost 35-year-old was 14th in TE targets last year with a whopping 76. He was fourth with eight TDs. Those are not sustainable numbers, especially for a team in transition. Kmet is the future. Head Coach Matt Nagy might be stubbornly refusing to start Justin Fields. But I have to believe Kmet is ready to step into a co-#1 role, if not a primary role. 147 of 164 experts (90%) rank him outside the top 14 TEs. As with Hooper, I'm placing Kmet in the top 14.
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Now, back to contrarian predictions. Gotta say, they're tough this year. COVID is the big wild card. Add to that a 17-game season, and we're really in uncharted territory. But there are two TE bargains I've been tracking all summer, and based on ADP they're still bargains. So if you don't land a top-6/7 option and want to wait 'til the end of the draft, both of the following should be top 16 options with a legit shot at low-end QB1 production.
Austin Hooper (TE-21 ADP) is one of many, many players in recent years to be ranked *exactly* as they finished the previous year. Of course, Hooper missed three games, so his #21 finish in 2020 is misleading. But the warning is well taken: his days as a TE1 appear to be over. Unlike in Atlanta, Hooper is an afterthough in Cleveland's run-friendly offense. But I'm convinced the Browns didn't make Hooper one of the highest-salaried TEs so he could block and catch 3-4 balls for 33 yards a game. Last year he was woefully underutilized. Most experts don't see his situation changing much, as 156 of 164 (95%) rank him outside the top 14. I'm banking on him as a top-14 TE.
Meanwhile, there's no good reason why Cole Kmet has a TE-23 ADP. I supposed some people want to see if the former second-rounder can make a second-year leap. But really, it's ludicrous to think Jimmy Graham will continue to "dominate" this tandem. The almost 35-year-old was 14th in TE targets last year with a whopping 76. He was fourth with eight TDs. Those are not sustainable numbers, especially for a team in transition. Kmet is the future. Head Coach Matt Nagy might be stubbornly refusing to start Justin Fields. But I have to believe Kmet is ready to step into a co-#1 role, if not a primary role. 147 of 164 experts (90%) rank him outside the top 14 TEs. As with Hooper, I'm placing Kmet in the top 14.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737