Each summer, the closer we get to Week 1, the bigger the pushback on contrarian predictions. It's human nature. If I were to read someone telling me why Allen Robinson will be a bust, my first instinct would be to think they're wrong. Completely wrong. There's no way I wasted the 30th pick in my draft. How dare they suggest I don't know what I'm doing.
So when bringing up popular, elite names, I understand the risks. These are guys some of you are banking on to help carry you to a title. So let the pushback begin (or actually, continue).
Josh Allen (QB-2 ADP) is apparently a can't-miss, elite fantasy option. He had a deceptively promising rookie campaign in 2018, finishing 21st among QB despite playing only 12 games. The next year he became a fantasy star, scoring the 6th most points. Keep in mind he averaged 18.0 points per game vs. 17.3 his rookie season. So not a massive improvement. But he played every game, which shows how good he might have been the year before if he'd played every game. Then last year he took things to another level, averaging 24.8 fantasy points per game and finishing 1st overall, in part thanks to Stefo Diggs--Allen's first true #1 receiver. Allen might have continued to be great without him. But he probably wouldn't have been elite.
This year fantasy experts are either too smart or too scared to expect much less. 123 of 177 experts place him in the top 2. Another 36 rank him 3rd. I'm not with those 90%. But it's not enough to just say Allen won't be top 3. I mean, that's not very interesting. So I'll also say he'll score 50+ fewer fantasy points than he did last year--despite playing a 17-game season this year. Why do I feel mostly confident about this? Partly because as we enter what might be the worst of the COVID pandemic, several key Bills players are unvaccinated. I believe this team is more likely to confront COVID infections than the average NFL team, meaning all Bills players are higher-than-normal DNP risks. I'm also concerned about Allen playing a much more competent Patriots D twice and at least four tough out-of-division defenses (Steelers, Washington, Colts, and Bucs). Draft him as a great QB. But don't expect numbers close to his 2020 totals.
I've waited all summer for Joe Burrow's ADP to drop. Inexplicably, it hasn't. It's not that Burrow doesn't have a bright NFL future, or that he might actually be a "surprise" QB1 this year. It's that if you're drafting Burrow at his QB-13 ADP, you're ignoring at least 10 lower-value QBs with comparable potential. So this isn't a customary prediction. I could argue on grounds that Burrow was barely middling last year until Joe Mixon got hurt, and then he averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game. Or I could argue that he's returning from a serious rookie-year injury and might need more time to return to form. But mainly, it's about the massive number of QB2s (and several QB3s) who could easily outperform Burrow any given week. That's why I'm not comfortable ranking Burrow in the top 16, despite the fact that 164 of 177 experts (93%) do.
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So when bringing up popular, elite names, I understand the risks. These are guys some of you are banking on to help carry you to a title. So let the pushback begin (or actually, continue).
Josh Allen (QB-2 ADP) is apparently a can't-miss, elite fantasy option. He had a deceptively promising rookie campaign in 2018, finishing 21st among QB despite playing only 12 games. The next year he became a fantasy star, scoring the 6th most points. Keep in mind he averaged 18.0 points per game vs. 17.3 his rookie season. So not a massive improvement. But he played every game, which shows how good he might have been the year before if he'd played every game. Then last year he took things to another level, averaging 24.8 fantasy points per game and finishing 1st overall, in part thanks to Stefo Diggs--Allen's first true #1 receiver. Allen might have continued to be great without him. But he probably wouldn't have been elite.
This year fantasy experts are either too smart or too scared to expect much less. 123 of 177 experts place him in the top 2. Another 36 rank him 3rd. I'm not with those 90%. But it's not enough to just say Allen won't be top 3. I mean, that's not very interesting. So I'll also say he'll score 50+ fewer fantasy points than he did last year--despite playing a 17-game season this year. Why do I feel mostly confident about this? Partly because as we enter what might be the worst of the COVID pandemic, several key Bills players are unvaccinated. I believe this team is more likely to confront COVID infections than the average NFL team, meaning all Bills players are higher-than-normal DNP risks. I'm also concerned about Allen playing a much more competent Patriots D twice and at least four tough out-of-division defenses (Steelers, Washington, Colts, and Bucs). Draft him as a great QB. But don't expect numbers close to his 2020 totals.
I've waited all summer for Joe Burrow's ADP to drop. Inexplicably, it hasn't. It's not that Burrow doesn't have a bright NFL future, or that he might actually be a "surprise" QB1 this year. It's that if you're drafting Burrow at his QB-13 ADP, you're ignoring at least 10 lower-value QBs with comparable potential. So this isn't a customary prediction. I could argue on grounds that Burrow was barely middling last year until Joe Mixon got hurt, and then he averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game. Or I could argue that he's returning from a serious rookie-year injury and might need more time to return to form. But mainly, it's about the massive number of QB2s (and several QB3s) who could easily outperform Burrow any given week. That's why I'm not comfortable ranking Burrow in the top 16, despite the fact that 164 of 177 experts (93%) do.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737