Two more contrarian predictions today. And remember if you want more fantasy nuggest throughout each day, you can follow me on Twitter at @_FF4W. I'm only a million followers shy of a million, so there's that.
With Julio Jones escaping Atlanta, some are sensing Matt Ryan's best days are behind him. Now 36 years old, Ryan probably will end his career top 9 in passing TDs and top 5-8 in passing yards. Yet it's hard to peg him as an all-time great, especially in an era when some QBs regularly exceed 35 passing TDs (five did it last year), and he's done it only once. He's exceeded 305 fantasy points only twice (11 QBs did it last year).
But his QB-17 ADP seems too low. He's been a QB1 (although barely at times) the past three seasons, thanks in part to being top 3 in pass attempts each of those years. And last year he had Julio for barely half a season, so it's hard to claim that Julio's absence will crush Ryan's upside. The defense is lacking, usual. The running game is somewhere between sub-par and half-decent. It's not hard to envision him as a streaming QB for much of the year. 163 of 175 experts (93%) rank him outside the top 12. I think he'll make it four times in a row as a QB1, thanks to an ascending Calvin Ridley, phenomenal rookie Kyle Pitts, and a game flow favoring airing it out. Bank on him as a top-12 QB.
How bad is Jared Goff? Based on his QB-31 ADP, he's pretty bad. The QB-32 (Cam Newton) is a free agent. That's what the fantasy universe thinks of Goff.
But c'mon, folks. The 26-year-old former first-rounder is not washed up. He averaged more fantasy points per game last year than guys like Baker Mayfield. He's moving from an elite defensive team to a near-league-bottom defensive team. Just as with Ryan, Goff will benefit from needing to throw earlier and more often. D'Andre Swift was on pace to easily clear 50 receptions last season, and as long as he's healthy, Goff should get his most RB points since 2018. While the wideout corps is one of the worst in recent times, T.J. Hockenson alone should help propel Goff to 3,000/20--in other words, QB2 production.
165 of 173 experts (95%) rank him outside the top 22, with most placing him in the bottom 5. I'm very comfortable drafting Goff as a low-end QB2 at worst--a top-22 option and a boon for two-QB / Superflex leaguers.
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With Julio Jones escaping Atlanta, some are sensing Matt Ryan's best days are behind him. Now 36 years old, Ryan probably will end his career top 9 in passing TDs and top 5-8 in passing yards. Yet it's hard to peg him as an all-time great, especially in an era when some QBs regularly exceed 35 passing TDs (five did it last year), and he's done it only once. He's exceeded 305 fantasy points only twice (11 QBs did it last year).
But his QB-17 ADP seems too low. He's been a QB1 (although barely at times) the past three seasons, thanks in part to being top 3 in pass attempts each of those years. And last year he had Julio for barely half a season, so it's hard to claim that Julio's absence will crush Ryan's upside. The defense is lacking, usual. The running game is somewhere between sub-par and half-decent. It's not hard to envision him as a streaming QB for much of the year. 163 of 175 experts (93%) rank him outside the top 12. I think he'll make it four times in a row as a QB1, thanks to an ascending Calvin Ridley, phenomenal rookie Kyle Pitts, and a game flow favoring airing it out. Bank on him as a top-12 QB.
How bad is Jared Goff? Based on his QB-31 ADP, he's pretty bad. The QB-32 (Cam Newton) is a free agent. That's what the fantasy universe thinks of Goff.
But c'mon, folks. The 26-year-old former first-rounder is not washed up. He averaged more fantasy points per game last year than guys like Baker Mayfield. He's moving from an elite defensive team to a near-league-bottom defensive team. Just as with Ryan, Goff will benefit from needing to throw earlier and more often. D'Andre Swift was on pace to easily clear 50 receptions last season, and as long as he's healthy, Goff should get his most RB points since 2018. While the wideout corps is one of the worst in recent times, T.J. Hockenson alone should help propel Goff to 3,000/20--in other words, QB2 production.
165 of 173 experts (95%) rank him outside the top 22, with most placing him in the bottom 5. I'm very comfortable drafting Goff as a low-end QB2 at worst--a top-22 option and a boon for two-QB / Superflex leaguers.
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Annual (Free) FF4W NFL Survivor Pool Sign-up: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737