I was ready to share more contrarian predictions, but J.K. Dobbins' injury shifted my thinking. I think we're reaching the end of the RB Bellcow Era. Not because of Dobbins. But it's one of many warning signs of what's to come. And the draft and roster-management implications will be huge.
Why does this matter? A decline in RB bellcows means a decline in early-round RB drafting. Per the chart below, 15-20 years ago the NFL averaged about 25 RBs with 200+ carries. Among those, 15+ consistently earned 250 carries. And among those, 8-10 (or sometimes more) had 300+ carries.
In 2020 there were only 10 200+ carry RBs. Only three of them carried it 250 times. And among those three, only two carried it 300+ times. Yes, a rise in receptions has helped offset these declines. But in most cases, receptions cannot compensate for what's clearly happening: there are fewer reliable bellcows today than there have been in decades. That means drafting an RB outside the top 10 presents bigger risks than it did even 10 years ago.
Then there's the new 17-game schedule. How many coaches will feed one running back for 17 or even 16 games, particularly if they're a playoff team? Won't there be greater pressure to broaden backfield distributions to help keep franchise RBs fresh for the postseason? Sure, it's only one more game. But in an eight-game season, there's less need to rest starters. The longer the season, the greater the need.
And that leads to my research on high-volume and high-snap-count RBs. RB bellcows are arguably the most precious fantasy commodity. They're also the riskiest. The wear and tear on a 350-touch RB, for example, is on balance greater than the wear and tear on a 150-catch WR. The average fantasy-point decline for a 350-touch RB the following season is 23%. For 350-touch RBs with 700+ snaps it's 44%.
I would argue that the NFL is well aware of this reality, and that the significant decline in high-carry RBs these past 15-20 years is a response to this reality. Last night I spent way too much time pulling together another chart below, which reinforces how GMs have devalued running backs in recent years. I would also argue that the days of 350+ touch RBs--and possibly even 300+ touch RBs--are drawing to a close. And the ripple effects will grow more significant. We might find in a few years that more than half of the first-round players drafted are non-RBs. Leagues might alter rules to give RBs a slight boost--such as a 0.2-point carry bonus. And we might see more three-headed backfields than ever.
The Dobbins injury, like many injuries, was a fluke. We can't blame it on usage. But it symbolizes the fragility and declining influence of running backs on the field, as well as in fantasy. Very few backs these days are deemed irreplaceable. Justin Jefferson might be a dominant force for a dozen years. His teammate, the 26-year-old Dalvin Cook, might have only a couple great years left. So the question is whether teams continue to protect their RB assets, or run them into the ground and toss them aside. I don't think the latter is the norm. It used to be, but not anymore.
So I believe we're approaching the end of the RB bellcow as we know it. The CMCs and Derrick Henrys of the world are remnants of bygone eras. Many GMs and coaches have adjusted. In time, fantasy managers will need to adjust, too.
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Why does this matter? A decline in RB bellcows means a decline in early-round RB drafting. Per the chart below, 15-20 years ago the NFL averaged about 25 RBs with 200+ carries. Among those, 15+ consistently earned 250 carries. And among those, 8-10 (or sometimes more) had 300+ carries.
In 2020 there were only 10 200+ carry RBs. Only three of them carried it 250 times. And among those three, only two carried it 300+ times. Yes, a rise in receptions has helped offset these declines. But in most cases, receptions cannot compensate for what's clearly happening: there are fewer reliable bellcows today than there have been in decades. That means drafting an RB outside the top 10 presents bigger risks than it did even 10 years ago.
Then there's the new 17-game schedule. How many coaches will feed one running back for 17 or even 16 games, particularly if they're a playoff team? Won't there be greater pressure to broaden backfield distributions to help keep franchise RBs fresh for the postseason? Sure, it's only one more game. But in an eight-game season, there's less need to rest starters. The longer the season, the greater the need.
And that leads to my research on high-volume and high-snap-count RBs. RB bellcows are arguably the most precious fantasy commodity. They're also the riskiest. The wear and tear on a 350-touch RB, for example, is on balance greater than the wear and tear on a 150-catch WR. The average fantasy-point decline for a 350-touch RB the following season is 23%. For 350-touch RBs with 700+ snaps it's 44%.
I would argue that the NFL is well aware of this reality, and that the significant decline in high-carry RBs these past 15-20 years is a response to this reality. Last night I spent way too much time pulling together another chart below, which reinforces how GMs have devalued running backs in recent years. I would also argue that the days of 350+ touch RBs--and possibly even 300+ touch RBs--are drawing to a close. And the ripple effects will grow more significant. We might find in a few years that more than half of the first-round players drafted are non-RBs. Leagues might alter rules to give RBs a slight boost--such as a 0.2-point carry bonus. And we might see more three-headed backfields than ever.
The Dobbins injury, like many injuries, was a fluke. We can't blame it on usage. But it symbolizes the fragility and declining influence of running backs on the field, as well as in fantasy. Very few backs these days are deemed irreplaceable. Justin Jefferson might be a dominant force for a dozen years. His teammate, the 26-year-old Dalvin Cook, might have only a couple great years left. So the question is whether teams continue to protect their RB assets, or run them into the ground and toss them aside. I don't think the latter is the norm. It used to be, but not anymore.
So I believe we're approaching the end of the RB bellcow as we know it. The CMCs and Derrick Henrys of the world are remnants of bygone eras. Many GMs and coaches have adjusted. In time, fantasy managers will need to adjust, too.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
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