Last season, glorified RB handcuff Kareem Hunt significantly outperformed his preseason RB-28 ADP, finishing at #10 thanks in part to Nick Chubb missing four games. D'Andre Swift (RB-28 ADP) finished 18th. Chase Edmonds (RB-45 ADP) finished 25th. I pushed all three last summer. I also pushed backups who didn't rise to the occasion, like Alexander Mattison (one big game and not much else).
Yesterday I alluded to RB handcuffs. Today I want to dive in. Because handcuffs are lottery tickets that sometimes pay out. Not most of them, and not most weeks. But they can turn a good fantasy team into a great one overnight. It makes no sense to settle for a WR4/5 on your bench when a much-higher-upside RB handcuff is sitting on waivers. While I haven't done the math, based on the number of RB starters who get hurt each year, and how long they remain out, there's probably a 25%-50% chance that in any given week, a handcuff will be forced to start. If you have the bench space to draft several, you're playing the odds that one will become a weekly fantasy starter, giving you a huge return on a minimal investment.
So here are the handcuffs I'm focused on, not including timeshare backfields on teams like Tampa Bay and Buffalo, and potential near-timeshare backfields on teams like Houston and perhaps Vegas. And I want potential RB1/2 value here--not just an RB5 who could become a split-time RB3 if things break right:
Darrynton Evans (RB-69 / Overall-242 ADP) -- He couldn't stay healthy last year, and he's missed some time this preseason. But the job is Evans' if he can stay on the field. The former third-rounder would back up Derrick Henry in a top-12 offense. As I've shared all too often, I believe Henry will regress and/or get hurt because of historic data showing, conclusively, that 400+ touch RBs usually regress *and* miss games the following season. (Henry cracked 400, including the postseason.) Evans is a 2020 third-rounder and has to beat out journeyman Brian Hill and uber-journeyman Jeremy McNichols.
Tony Pollard (RB-43 / Overall-124) -- He plays big when given the chance, and he's Zeke Elliott's unquestioned backup. While I actually believe in Zeke this season, Pollard is a must-roster RB in every single league--particularly if Dak Prescott is good-to-go Week 1. Last year this offense was on pace to be one of the greatest in NFL history before Dak got hurt. It can be again, and Pollard (a respectable 129 touches in 2020) will be a part of it even if Zeke stays healthy.
Alexander Mattison (RB-47 / Overall-145) -- This is my third straight summer pushing Pollard and Mattison as elite handcuffs. As with Derrick Henry, you know my thoughts on Dalvin Cook--though Cook's situation is different, as he barely qualifies as a heavy-volume 2020 back. That said, his injury history remains a yellow flag, and Mattison is capable of being an RB1/2 if needed. And I believe he'll be needed.
Kareem Hunt (RB-24 / Overall-56) -- Barely worth mentioning. All too obvious. But still undervalued given his weekly role and elite potential if Nick Chubb gets hurt again.
Travis Etienne (RB-23 / Overall-55) -- I'm obligated to mention him. Subscribers to my rankings know I think he's coming off draft boards too early. As talented as he is, a rookie earning #2 RB work in a sub-par offense is not my idea of a safe pick. Maybe he'll be a monster in the passing game. Maybe I'm completely misreading his offensive role. Of course this guy is incredibly talented. The question is what kind of rookie impact he'll make in Jacksonville. So if you're drafting him as a weekly fantasy starter, hope I'm wrong. If you're drafting him as a fantastic handcuff, then he'll meet expectations if Robinson flops or goes down.
A.J. Dillon (RB-38 / Overall-102) -- In an offseason full of existential questions coming out of Green Bay, after this season I think the biggest head-scratcher will be why this team made Aaron Jones the 6th-highest-paid RB. A former fifth-rounder, Jones never profiled to be an annual bellcow. Yes, he's 100% earned it. But Dillon, a 2020 second-rounder, is coming off a highly efficient rookie campaign and could easily--and I mean easily--be a top-8 RB if Jones were out of the picture.
Chuba Hubbard (RB-52 / Overall-173) -- CMC's likely backup. Nothing more to say.
Xavier Jones (RB-54 / Overall-174) -- Either Darrell Henderson won't be able to stay on the field for 16 games, or the team will limit his reps to try to keep him healthy. Either way, Jones is a buy.
Salvon Ahmed (RB-68 / Overall-244) -- I have a soft spot for players who deserve more than they get. Gaskin remains atop the depth chart, though his status grows more tenuous by the week. Ahmed is priced as a backup. He should be priced as a member of a potential RBBC, with the ability to produce like a bellcow if called on.
Jeff Wilson (RB-74 / Overall-267) -- If you have an IR spot and miss out on Michael Thomas, snag Wilson with your last pick. If he returns toward the end of the season, he could earn a spot start or two. And we've seen what he can do.
DeeJay Dallas (RB-89 / Overall-358) -- Finally, if former first-rounder Rashaad Penny still can't put it all together, Dallas will earn a prime role behind a starter (Chris Carson) who's missed time every season. I'm betting Dallas will comfortably outperform ADP, and that he'll be a top-20 RB if given the chance.
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Yesterday I alluded to RB handcuffs. Today I want to dive in. Because handcuffs are lottery tickets that sometimes pay out. Not most of them, and not most weeks. But they can turn a good fantasy team into a great one overnight. It makes no sense to settle for a WR4/5 on your bench when a much-higher-upside RB handcuff is sitting on waivers. While I haven't done the math, based on the number of RB starters who get hurt each year, and how long they remain out, there's probably a 25%-50% chance that in any given week, a handcuff will be forced to start. If you have the bench space to draft several, you're playing the odds that one will become a weekly fantasy starter, giving you a huge return on a minimal investment.
So here are the handcuffs I'm focused on, not including timeshare backfields on teams like Tampa Bay and Buffalo, and potential near-timeshare backfields on teams like Houston and perhaps Vegas. And I want potential RB1/2 value here--not just an RB5 who could become a split-time RB3 if things break right:
Darrynton Evans (RB-69 / Overall-242 ADP) -- He couldn't stay healthy last year, and he's missed some time this preseason. But the job is Evans' if he can stay on the field. The former third-rounder would back up Derrick Henry in a top-12 offense. As I've shared all too often, I believe Henry will regress and/or get hurt because of historic data showing, conclusively, that 400+ touch RBs usually regress *and* miss games the following season. (Henry cracked 400, including the postseason.) Evans is a 2020 third-rounder and has to beat out journeyman Brian Hill and uber-journeyman Jeremy McNichols.
Tony Pollard (RB-43 / Overall-124) -- He plays big when given the chance, and he's Zeke Elliott's unquestioned backup. While I actually believe in Zeke this season, Pollard is a must-roster RB in every single league--particularly if Dak Prescott is good-to-go Week 1. Last year this offense was on pace to be one of the greatest in NFL history before Dak got hurt. It can be again, and Pollard (a respectable 129 touches in 2020) will be a part of it even if Zeke stays healthy.
Alexander Mattison (RB-47 / Overall-145) -- This is my third straight summer pushing Pollard and Mattison as elite handcuffs. As with Derrick Henry, you know my thoughts on Dalvin Cook--though Cook's situation is different, as he barely qualifies as a heavy-volume 2020 back. That said, his injury history remains a yellow flag, and Mattison is capable of being an RB1/2 if needed. And I believe he'll be needed.
Kareem Hunt (RB-24 / Overall-56) -- Barely worth mentioning. All too obvious. But still undervalued given his weekly role and elite potential if Nick Chubb gets hurt again.
Travis Etienne (RB-23 / Overall-55) -- I'm obligated to mention him. Subscribers to my rankings know I think he's coming off draft boards too early. As talented as he is, a rookie earning #2 RB work in a sub-par offense is not my idea of a safe pick. Maybe he'll be a monster in the passing game. Maybe I'm completely misreading his offensive role. Of course this guy is incredibly talented. The question is what kind of rookie impact he'll make in Jacksonville. So if you're drafting him as a weekly fantasy starter, hope I'm wrong. If you're drafting him as a fantastic handcuff, then he'll meet expectations if Robinson flops or goes down.
A.J. Dillon (RB-38 / Overall-102) -- In an offseason full of existential questions coming out of Green Bay, after this season I think the biggest head-scratcher will be why this team made Aaron Jones the 6th-highest-paid RB. A former fifth-rounder, Jones never profiled to be an annual bellcow. Yes, he's 100% earned it. But Dillon, a 2020 second-rounder, is coming off a highly efficient rookie campaign and could easily--and I mean easily--be a top-8 RB if Jones were out of the picture.
Chuba Hubbard (RB-52 / Overall-173) -- CMC's likely backup. Nothing more to say.
Xavier Jones (RB-54 / Overall-174) -- Either Darrell Henderson won't be able to stay on the field for 16 games, or the team will limit his reps to try to keep him healthy. Either way, Jones is a buy.
Salvon Ahmed (RB-68 / Overall-244) -- I have a soft spot for players who deserve more than they get. Gaskin remains atop the depth chart, though his status grows more tenuous by the week. Ahmed is priced as a backup. He should be priced as a member of a potential RBBC, with the ability to produce like a bellcow if called on.
Jeff Wilson (RB-74 / Overall-267) -- If you have an IR spot and miss out on Michael Thomas, snag Wilson with your last pick. If he returns toward the end of the season, he could earn a spot start or two. And we've seen what he can do.
DeeJay Dallas (RB-89 / Overall-358) -- Finally, if former first-rounder Rashaad Penny still can't put it all together, Dallas will earn a prime role behind a starter (Chris Carson) who's missed time every season. I'm betting Dallas will comfortably outperform ADP, and that he'll be a top-20 RB if given the chance.
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