Led by Lamar Jackson, Raven QBs ran the ball 382 times the last two seasons. Falcon QBs (led by Matt Ryan) ran it only 66 times. Based on this dramatic disparity, one might assume Falcon RBs were more involved on the ground than Raven RBs.
Not true. In fact, Raven RBs had 64 more rushing attempts than Falcon RBs these last two years.
So what impact do run-heavy QBs have on their teams' RBs and receivers? And can we make smarter fantasy decisions based on this information?
I gathered and analyzed the past two years of data concerning rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs, passing attempts, passing yards, and passing TDs. For rushing yards and rushing TDs, I segmented the data based on QBs and everyone else. Some results reinforce what we might imagine to be true. Other results are shockingly counterintuitive. A sample chart is below, and the rest can be found on the Ff4W Research page: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/run-heavy-QB-impacts.html.
To summarize, among teams (like Atlanta) with less than 50 QB rushing attempts in a season, QBs averaged considerably more passing attempts and passing yards than teams (like Baltimore) with more than 100 QB rushing attempts in a season. That all makes sense. And despite the Ravens-Falcons example above, non-QB rushing attempts on low-QB-running teams narrowly exceeded those of high-QB-running teams, and experienced a slightly more significant edge in non-QB rushing TDs. In other words, although the disparities were not huge, and there were clearly exceptions, these results generally aligned with popular opinions.
But high-QB-running teams somehow averaged more non-QB rushing yards and more TD passes than low-QB-running teams. Why was that? Perhaps teams like New Orleans skewed the results. We saw last year how Taysom Hill hampered Alvin Kamara's production. But the stats as a whole show the Saints had a run-heavy QB *and* a prolific RB rusher, receiver, and scorer. It just happened to be that Kamara did his best when the immobile Drew Brees was quarterbacking.
But that might not be the whole story. The verdict is still out on whether run-heavy QBs meaningfully impact their teams' offense--and in particular, RB and WR production. With expanded testing covering more seasons, outliers like the 2020 Saints would have less influence on results, and we might get a clearer picture. For now, it's fair to conclude that high-QB-running teams don't, on balance, enhance RB or receiver values. And they're also not as harmful to RBs and receivers as conventional wisdom would suggest.
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Not true. In fact, Raven RBs had 64 more rushing attempts than Falcon RBs these last two years.
So what impact do run-heavy QBs have on their teams' RBs and receivers? And can we make smarter fantasy decisions based on this information?
I gathered and analyzed the past two years of data concerning rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs, passing attempts, passing yards, and passing TDs. For rushing yards and rushing TDs, I segmented the data based on QBs and everyone else. Some results reinforce what we might imagine to be true. Other results are shockingly counterintuitive. A sample chart is below, and the rest can be found on the Ff4W Research page: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/run-heavy-QB-impacts.html.
To summarize, among teams (like Atlanta) with less than 50 QB rushing attempts in a season, QBs averaged considerably more passing attempts and passing yards than teams (like Baltimore) with more than 100 QB rushing attempts in a season. That all makes sense. And despite the Ravens-Falcons example above, non-QB rushing attempts on low-QB-running teams narrowly exceeded those of high-QB-running teams, and experienced a slightly more significant edge in non-QB rushing TDs. In other words, although the disparities were not huge, and there were clearly exceptions, these results generally aligned with popular opinions.
But high-QB-running teams somehow averaged more non-QB rushing yards and more TD passes than low-QB-running teams. Why was that? Perhaps teams like New Orleans skewed the results. We saw last year how Taysom Hill hampered Alvin Kamara's production. But the stats as a whole show the Saints had a run-heavy QB *and* a prolific RB rusher, receiver, and scorer. It just happened to be that Kamara did his best when the immobile Drew Brees was quarterbacking.
But that might not be the whole story. The verdict is still out on whether run-heavy QBs meaningfully impact their teams' offense--and in particular, RB and WR production. With expanded testing covering more seasons, outliers like the 2020 Saints would have less influence on results, and we might get a clearer picture. For now, it's fair to conclude that high-QB-running teams don't, on balance, enhance RB or receiver values. And they're also not as harmful to RBs and receivers as conventional wisdom would suggest.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
