For years I've tried to wrap my head around the connection between offensive lines and fantasy production. It started as research for my 2012 book, and has continued through starts and stops. Some preliminary research I've been tracking for a few years has yielded interesting stuff, so I'll share it here.
Pro Football Focus is, in my opinion, the best experts on offensive lines. They're preseason valuations and postseason evaluations are top-notch. As most of you know, I don't endorse people or websites. But I'll make an exception here, because I can't share this research without celebrating where one of the variables is coming from.
Each summer PFF produces team-by-team offensive-line rankings, usually updating it right before the start of the season. For context, Dallas was #1 in 2016, while Seattle was #32. This year, Cleveland is #1 and Philly is #32. After each season I've plugged in each team's offensive yardarge and offensive TDs, segmenting teams based on whether they had elite o-lines, merely very good o-lines, bad o-lines, or terrible o-lines (all derived quantitatively from the rankings).
Of course, this is all based on PFF's preseason opinions. But because they are (I believe) very good--or possibly the best--at what they do, I'm comfortable organizing this data around their assessments. If the data proves to have some predictive elements, then as long as PFF keeps doing what it does at the high level it does it, then the results should continue to give us some predictive powers.
The initial results (which you can find on the Research page here: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/offensive-lines.html) are pretty interesting. The worst o-lines are consistently at or near the bottom in terms of offensive yards and offensive TDs each season, and their four-year average (2017-2020) is also the lowest for each category. But the other ranking groupings don't tell us much, as the offensive outputs are pretty similar.
So I tried a different approach, tracking the improvement or worsening of offensive lines from one preseason to the next. For example, PFF ranked Buffalo's o-line 29th in 2018 (Josh Allen's rookie campaign). The next summer Buffalo improved to 19th. So I labeled this a "+10 jump." The results are on the Research page and below. While the rare 15+ point jumpers (there have been only five since 2017) proved relatively ineffective, collectively positive jumpers have averaged more offensive yards and TDs than teams whose o-line rankings dropped. While it's not seismic, the trend lines clearly show downward movement.
This is significant. It suggests that we might be able to apply some positive value to "jumping" teams' QBs, RBs, and receivers, while applying some negative value to "dropping" teams' players.
And for those who are wondering, the biggest jumpers in PFF's preliminary 2021 o-line rankings are the Rams (+17), Chargers (+12), Washington (+12), and Cardinals (+10). The biggest droppers are the Steelers (-22), Eagles (-21), Raiders (-15), Panthers (-13), and Packers (-12). There's a lot to unpack here, and there's no guarantee 2021 will be consistent with previous years. But the trend line is the trend line. So if we see Chase Edmonds exceed expectations or Miles Sanders average a career-low YPC, we shouldn't be surprised. Of course, the trend line isn't steep. So we might be talking about minor impacts to the tune of a few percentage points of production. Still, it's one of many factors that, collectively, might improve our decision making.
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Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
Pro Football Focus is, in my opinion, the best experts on offensive lines. They're preseason valuations and postseason evaluations are top-notch. As most of you know, I don't endorse people or websites. But I'll make an exception here, because I can't share this research without celebrating where one of the variables is coming from.
Each summer PFF produces team-by-team offensive-line rankings, usually updating it right before the start of the season. For context, Dallas was #1 in 2016, while Seattle was #32. This year, Cleveland is #1 and Philly is #32. After each season I've plugged in each team's offensive yardarge and offensive TDs, segmenting teams based on whether they had elite o-lines, merely very good o-lines, bad o-lines, or terrible o-lines (all derived quantitatively from the rankings).
Of course, this is all based on PFF's preseason opinions. But because they are (I believe) very good--or possibly the best--at what they do, I'm comfortable organizing this data around their assessments. If the data proves to have some predictive elements, then as long as PFF keeps doing what it does at the high level it does it, then the results should continue to give us some predictive powers.
The initial results (which you can find on the Research page here: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/offensive-lines.html) are pretty interesting. The worst o-lines are consistently at or near the bottom in terms of offensive yards and offensive TDs each season, and their four-year average (2017-2020) is also the lowest for each category. But the other ranking groupings don't tell us much, as the offensive outputs are pretty similar.
So I tried a different approach, tracking the improvement or worsening of offensive lines from one preseason to the next. For example, PFF ranked Buffalo's o-line 29th in 2018 (Josh Allen's rookie campaign). The next summer Buffalo improved to 19th. So I labeled this a "+10 jump." The results are on the Research page and below. While the rare 15+ point jumpers (there have been only five since 2017) proved relatively ineffective, collectively positive jumpers have averaged more offensive yards and TDs than teams whose o-line rankings dropped. While it's not seismic, the trend lines clearly show downward movement.
This is significant. It suggests that we might be able to apply some positive value to "jumping" teams' QBs, RBs, and receivers, while applying some negative value to "dropping" teams' players.
And for those who are wondering, the biggest jumpers in PFF's preliminary 2021 o-line rankings are the Rams (+17), Chargers (+12), Washington (+12), and Cardinals (+10). The biggest droppers are the Steelers (-22), Eagles (-21), Raiders (-15), Panthers (-13), and Packers (-12). There's a lot to unpack here, and there's no guarantee 2021 will be consistent with previous years. But the trend line is the trend line. So if we see Chase Edmonds exceed expectations or Miles Sanders average a career-low YPC, we shouldn't be surprised. Of course, the trend line isn't steep. So we might be talking about minor impacts to the tune of a few percentage points of production. Still, it's one of many factors that, collectively, might improve our decision making.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
