Yesterday's research dealt with snap counts. Today's focuses on home-field advantage. It's intuitive that home teams win a majority of football games (it was around 57% when I first researched this for my book in 2011). And in that book I examined how upper-tier fantasy players generally score more points at home than on the road. But these were just snapshots of select players. To what extent can we say that starting fantasy players at home, on balance, yields more fantasy points than starting them on the road?
The following is a starting point to build on with future research. A sample chart is attached. The rest are on the Ff4W Research page: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/home-fantasy-advantage.html.
The research is pretty simple: I examined each team's average points, offensive TDs, and offensive yards going back to 2003. The numbers are fairly consistent from 2003 to 2018. Home teams continually averaged more points, offensive TDs, and offensive yards each season. Then in 2019, the gaps narrowed significantly. And in 2020, the narrowed even more--while for the first time, road teams average more offensive yards than home teams.
2020 is easy to explain. COVID removed many teams' home-field advantages, or at least the large-roaring-crowd dynamic. But why the change in 2019? And what might it suggest about this year or even 2022 (when things actually might, hopefully, return to normal)?
If the 2003-2018 trends hold in 2021, home teams will average 2.5 more points per game, 15 more offensive yards per game, and 0.3 more offensive TDs per game. Points possibly could be partly explained away by extra field goals (I'd have to research that). But offensive yards and offensive TDs clearly are the result of offensive players with meaningful fantasy implications.
For example, there were 833 TD passes by QBs in 2018. There were 201 other offensive touchdowns (14 passes by non-QBs and 187 rushing scores). Knowing that a majority--even a small majority--of these scores took place at home means a tiny bump to many home-field starting RBs, WRs, and even some TEs. It means a slightly bigger bump to home-field starting QBs, who generally dominate TDs and yards. Altogether, this approach might give someone a 2-3 point edge when their players are at home vs. on the road.
As I've said before, it's hard to generate game-changing conclusions. A lot of research touches the edges of relevance. But taken collectively, they help us make decisions that, on balance, are in our favor. So if you're trying to decide which WR to start at flex one week, let home-field advantage be a tiebreaker. Or if you're torn on whether to accept a trade, review each player's remaining games; if strength of schedule is comparable, perhaps whoever has more home games remaining gets the edge.
This is how I normally approach fantasy. Many, many factors go into every draft and roster management decision. The best decision is usually the one with the most evidence supporting it.
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The following is a starting point to build on with future research. A sample chart is attached. The rest are on the Ff4W Research page: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/home-fantasy-advantage.html.
The research is pretty simple: I examined each team's average points, offensive TDs, and offensive yards going back to 2003. The numbers are fairly consistent from 2003 to 2018. Home teams continually averaged more points, offensive TDs, and offensive yards each season. Then in 2019, the gaps narrowed significantly. And in 2020, the narrowed even more--while for the first time, road teams average more offensive yards than home teams.
2020 is easy to explain. COVID removed many teams' home-field advantages, or at least the large-roaring-crowd dynamic. But why the change in 2019? And what might it suggest about this year or even 2022 (when things actually might, hopefully, return to normal)?
If the 2003-2018 trends hold in 2021, home teams will average 2.5 more points per game, 15 more offensive yards per game, and 0.3 more offensive TDs per game. Points possibly could be partly explained away by extra field goals (I'd have to research that). But offensive yards and offensive TDs clearly are the result of offensive players with meaningful fantasy implications.
For example, there were 833 TD passes by QBs in 2018. There were 201 other offensive touchdowns (14 passes by non-QBs and 187 rushing scores). Knowing that a majority--even a small majority--of these scores took place at home means a tiny bump to many home-field starting RBs, WRs, and even some TEs. It means a slightly bigger bump to home-field starting QBs, who generally dominate TDs and yards. Altogether, this approach might give someone a 2-3 point edge when their players are at home vs. on the road.
As I've said before, it's hard to generate game-changing conclusions. A lot of research touches the edges of relevance. But taken collectively, they help us make decisions that, on balance, are in our favor. So if you're trying to decide which WR to start at flex one week, let home-field advantage be a tiebreaker. Or if you're torn on whether to accept a trade, review each player's remaining games; if strength of schedule is comparable, perhaps whoever has more home games remaining gets the edge.
This is how I normally approach fantasy. Many, many factors go into every draft and roster management decision. The best decision is usually the one with the most evidence supporting it.
---
Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
