Pausing "32 Teams in 32 Days" to make a couple of big announcements. Hopefully there's something here for everyone.
First, as many of you know, I started FF4W because I wasn't satisfied with the quality of fantasy prognosticators. Herd mentality, overreacting to a reporter's observations, ranking players based on last season's performances . . . Expertise can't afford to be lazy.
When I have a spare evening, I like testing fantasy hypotheses. Sometimes after several hours of researching and analyzing numbers, I realize there's nothing really there. It neither proves nor disproves conventional wisdom. So I drop it, go to sleep, and try something else the next time I have time. And sometimes after several hours--or several evenings--I find a nugget of truth in the numbers. There's actual actionable intelligence, and when applied in the fantasy world, I now have a slightly greater probability of success.
And when all of this intelligence is used together, we can start to see how being a consistently "good" fantasy manager isn't luck. Yes, luck is great when it happens to you. But if you're truly "good" in this line of work, you can withstand bad luck--even mountains of bad luck--and still be competitive. Because you know things your opponents don't. While they're managing based on conventional wisdoms, you're managing based on less conventional, statistically verifiable facts.
To help ensure everyone has a baseline competitive advantage, I've pulled together some of my favorite FF4W charts and graphs into one section on the website. This Research page is launching with eight hypotheses, with links to explanations and visualizations. I've shared some of these over the years, but not all of them, and in the coming months and years I plan to add many more as new discoveries are made. I want FF4W to continue to be a place where people can get free, quality advice based not on opinions, but on evidence. Between this new feature and the Fantasy-pedia page, I've tried to create a web destination for fantasy managers seeking answers.
Separately, over the years some of you have hired me to do one-off research projects, such as creating customized draft rankings based on your league's unique scoring rules. I've pulled these and other requested options together into a menu of highly specialized services that until now was on the down-low. I'm also conscious of the uniqueness of fantasy sports--that often the value of advice hinges almost entirely on whether it works. So the fees for these services are designed humanely: 50% at the outset, and then you decide after the season if my advice was worth the other 50%. If not, I trust you. If yes, then thank you for trusting me.
You can check out the services and sign-up details on the new Personalized Fantasy Advice page on the FF4W website.
To be clear, I and the FF4W commenters will keep answering any/all questions that come our way. I'll keep writing daily columns. Essentially, most of what I learn on any given day will continue to be given away freely. And if you want me to invest considerably more time than the normal sit/start, waiver, and trade questions require, I'm ready to put in the extra work.
First, as many of you know, I started FF4W because I wasn't satisfied with the quality of fantasy prognosticators. Herd mentality, overreacting to a reporter's observations, ranking players based on last season's performances . . . Expertise can't afford to be lazy.
When I have a spare evening, I like testing fantasy hypotheses. Sometimes after several hours of researching and analyzing numbers, I realize there's nothing really there. It neither proves nor disproves conventional wisdom. So I drop it, go to sleep, and try something else the next time I have time. And sometimes after several hours--or several evenings--I find a nugget of truth in the numbers. There's actual actionable intelligence, and when applied in the fantasy world, I now have a slightly greater probability of success.
And when all of this intelligence is used together, we can start to see how being a consistently "good" fantasy manager isn't luck. Yes, luck is great when it happens to you. But if you're truly "good" in this line of work, you can withstand bad luck--even mountains of bad luck--and still be competitive. Because you know things your opponents don't. While they're managing based on conventional wisdoms, you're managing based on less conventional, statistically verifiable facts.
To help ensure everyone has a baseline competitive advantage, I've pulled together some of my favorite FF4W charts and graphs into one section on the website. This Research page is launching with eight hypotheses, with links to explanations and visualizations. I've shared some of these over the years, but not all of them, and in the coming months and years I plan to add many more as new discoveries are made. I want FF4W to continue to be a place where people can get free, quality advice based not on opinions, but on evidence. Between this new feature and the Fantasy-pedia page, I've tried to create a web destination for fantasy managers seeking answers.
Separately, over the years some of you have hired me to do one-off research projects, such as creating customized draft rankings based on your league's unique scoring rules. I've pulled these and other requested options together into a menu of highly specialized services that until now was on the down-low. I'm also conscious of the uniqueness of fantasy sports--that often the value of advice hinges almost entirely on whether it works. So the fees for these services are designed humanely: 50% at the outset, and then you decide after the season if my advice was worth the other 50%. If not, I trust you. If yes, then thank you for trusting me.
You can check out the services and sign-up details on the new Personalized Fantasy Advice page on the FF4W website.
To be clear, I and the FF4W commenters will keep answering any/all questions that come our way. I'll keep writing daily columns. Essentially, most of what I learn on any given day will continue to be given away freely. And if you want me to invest considerably more time than the normal sit/start, waiver, and trade questions require, I'm ready to put in the extra work.