After yesterday's 1,500-word novella, let's keep it short and sweet today with more contrarian predictions. We're nine days away from the start of the season. We need answers, not self-indulgent prose.
But before I get to the predictions, some self-indulgent prose: After a two-season hiatus, I'm bringing back the (in)famous FF4W NFL Survivor Pool. This is an entirely free, single-elimination competition. Past winners include Randy Scoggins (2015), Mike Hoff (2016), Matt Neidhart (2017), and Yemi Onibokun (2018). These legendary victors' prizes included shout-outs on social media and an incredibly enjoyable phone conversation with me to talk all-things-fantasy.
(Note: one of them politely declined the phone call, which might suggest these calls are not actually "incredibly enjoyable.")
If you want to compete, sign up here: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737.
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OK, here are two wideouts I'm fading in fantasy. First up is Stefon Diggs. Yes, that Stefon Diggs. His WR-3 ADP suggests he might be a late-first-round talent in 14-team leagues. His career year coincided with Josh Allen's career year, so what's stopping them from dominating again? Simply put, as good as Allen is, I don't see him replicating or exceeding his insane 2020 per-game numbers. Tom Brady's career TD% (per pass attempt) is 5.5%. Aaron Rodgers' is 6.3%. Last season Allen's was 6.5%. Also, he targeted Diggs 166 times--more than any other NFL player. I'm having trouble buying 2020 as Diggs' new norm. Will he be a WR1? I don't see why not. But elite production? Everything has to break right. Among Fantasy Pros' compilation of 164 experts, 100% place Diggs in the top 7. I think they're all mistaken
Next, Tee Higgins (WR-24 ADP) is getting hyped due to rookie Ja'Marr Chase's mixed preseason and Joe Burrow's presumed development as a top-14 fantasy QB. Neither assessments are accurate in my opinion. Chase is arguably the most talented receiver in Cincy; it just might take a few weeks for him to assert himself as the #1. And Burrow is a largely unproven NFL talent. His ceiling is about 3,800/25, which would place him around the top 16-17. With Tyler Boyd still very relevant and a healthy Joe Mixon dominating the backfield, Higgins might be the third or even fourth offensive option some weeks. That's not what you want in a back-end WR2. 85% of experts rank him in the top 28. That's too aggressive for me.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html
But before I get to the predictions, some self-indulgent prose: After a two-season hiatus, I'm bringing back the (in)famous FF4W NFL Survivor Pool. This is an entirely free, single-elimination competition. Past winners include Randy Scoggins (2015), Mike Hoff (2016), Matt Neidhart (2017), and Yemi Onibokun (2018). These legendary victors' prizes included shout-outs on social media and an incredibly enjoyable phone conversation with me to talk all-things-fantasy.
(Note: one of them politely declined the phone call, which might suggest these calls are not actually "incredibly enjoyable.")
If you want to compete, sign up here: https://survivor.fantasy.nfl.com/group/100737.
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OK, here are two wideouts I'm fading in fantasy. First up is Stefon Diggs. Yes, that Stefon Diggs. His WR-3 ADP suggests he might be a late-first-round talent in 14-team leagues. His career year coincided with Josh Allen's career year, so what's stopping them from dominating again? Simply put, as good as Allen is, I don't see him replicating or exceeding his insane 2020 per-game numbers. Tom Brady's career TD% (per pass attempt) is 5.5%. Aaron Rodgers' is 6.3%. Last season Allen's was 6.5%. Also, he targeted Diggs 166 times--more than any other NFL player. I'm having trouble buying 2020 as Diggs' new norm. Will he be a WR1? I don't see why not. But elite production? Everything has to break right. Among Fantasy Pros' compilation of 164 experts, 100% place Diggs in the top 7. I think they're all mistaken
Next, Tee Higgins (WR-24 ADP) is getting hyped due to rookie Ja'Marr Chase's mixed preseason and Joe Burrow's presumed development as a top-14 fantasy QB. Neither assessments are accurate in my opinion. Chase is arguably the most talented receiver in Cincy; it just might take a few weeks for him to assert himself as the #1. And Burrow is a largely unproven NFL talent. His ceiling is about 3,800/25, which would place him around the top 16-17. With Tyler Boyd still very relevant and a healthy Joe Mixon dominating the backfield, Higgins might be the third or even fourth offensive option some weeks. That's not what you want in a back-end WR2. 85% of experts rank him in the top 28. That's too aggressive for me.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html