By popular demand (one reader, plus me), I'm bringing back my preseason contrarian predictions. I started this feature in 2013--the blog's first season. It was intended to be an antidote to the painfully generic predictions made by most prognosticators. The obvious is boring. Challenging commonly held assumptions--and being right about it--helps make us champions.
Before jumping in, a reminder that if you're drafting these next 12 days and want to subscribe to my rankings, the details are at the bottom. Donate whatever they're worth to you. And if you want extra support pre-draft or during the season--customized rankings, Zoom/phone draft strategy session, texting with me every week, etc.--you can sign up for that at the bottom, too.
Today I'm highlighting three dramatically undervalued wideouts. Rankings subscribers already know this stuff, because I've been pushing it on them for weeks. But we're now late enough in the summer where it's time to put a very public and demonstrative stamp on these predictions. First up is Tyler Lockett (WR-20 ADP). 144 of 159 experts (91%) on Fantasy Pros rank him outside the top 13, and more than half rank him 20th or worse. While it's entirely possible the 28-year-old stumbles (because anything's possible), the likely outcome is continued near-dominance. This is a guy who's missed only one game in six years, and he has three straight campaigns with 220+ fantasy points. I'm predicting he'll be a top-13 WR.
How good is Henry Ruggs III? Too good to be largely passed over yet again. After a forgettable rookie season, the 2020 first-rounder is poised to be the Raiders' #1 wide receiver. His WR-52 ADP assumes minimal growth above last year's 6.5 fantasy points per game (for context, Keelan Cole finished #50 last year, so . . . very achievable). And Ruggs isn't earning much love from experts: 153 of 159 (96%) place him outside the top 40. In fact, 91% believe he'll be 50th or worse, and yes, 58% think he'll be 60th or worse. What are they thinking? I don't know, because candidly I don't read others' opinions. I go with data, personnel, schemes, and my longstanding fantasy motto: "talent plus opportunity equals greatness." I'm predicting Ruggs will be a top-40 WR.
Finally, I've been pushing Marquez Callaway for weeks, so this shouldn't surprise anyone. I might have seemed smarter if I'd made this prediction weeks ago. But it's fairer to wait 'til close to Week 1, so that ADPs can catch up with reality. And wow, Callaway has jumped this month, all the way to a WR-59 ADP (he was in the 80's earlier). It's still not bullish enough, though. He should lead the passing attack until Michael Thomas returns, and even then he has a good shot of being the best #2 receiver New Orleans has had in years. Yet most experts remain doubtful. 139 of 159 (87%) place him outside the top 45, with 61% ranking him outside the top 60. This doesn't click with me. I'm predicting Callaway will be a top-45 WR, with or without Michael Thomas.
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Before jumping in, a reminder that if you're drafting these next 12 days and want to subscribe to my rankings, the details are at the bottom. Donate whatever they're worth to you. And if you want extra support pre-draft or during the season--customized rankings, Zoom/phone draft strategy session, texting with me every week, etc.--you can sign up for that at the bottom, too.
Today I'm highlighting three dramatically undervalued wideouts. Rankings subscribers already know this stuff, because I've been pushing it on them for weeks. But we're now late enough in the summer where it's time to put a very public and demonstrative stamp on these predictions. First up is Tyler Lockett (WR-20 ADP). 144 of 159 experts (91%) on Fantasy Pros rank him outside the top 13, and more than half rank him 20th or worse. While it's entirely possible the 28-year-old stumbles (because anything's possible), the likely outcome is continued near-dominance. This is a guy who's missed only one game in six years, and he has three straight campaigns with 220+ fantasy points. I'm predicting he'll be a top-13 WR.
How good is Henry Ruggs III? Too good to be largely passed over yet again. After a forgettable rookie season, the 2020 first-rounder is poised to be the Raiders' #1 wide receiver. His WR-52 ADP assumes minimal growth above last year's 6.5 fantasy points per game (for context, Keelan Cole finished #50 last year, so . . . very achievable). And Ruggs isn't earning much love from experts: 153 of 159 (96%) place him outside the top 40. In fact, 91% believe he'll be 50th or worse, and yes, 58% think he'll be 60th or worse. What are they thinking? I don't know, because candidly I don't read others' opinions. I go with data, personnel, schemes, and my longstanding fantasy motto: "talent plus opportunity equals greatness." I'm predicting Ruggs will be a top-40 WR.
Finally, I've been pushing Marquez Callaway for weeks, so this shouldn't surprise anyone. I might have seemed smarter if I'd made this prediction weeks ago. But it's fairer to wait 'til close to Week 1, so that ADPs can catch up with reality. And wow, Callaway has jumped this month, all the way to a WR-59 ADP (he was in the 80's earlier). It's still not bullish enough, though. He should lead the passing attack until Michael Thomas returns, and even then he has a good shot of being the best #2 receiver New Orleans has had in years. Yet most experts remain doubtful. 139 of 159 (87%) place him outside the top 45, with 61% ranking him outside the top 60. This doesn't click with me. I'm predicting Callaway will be a top-45 WR, with or without Michael Thomas.
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Personalized Fantasy Advice Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/personalized-fantasy-advice.html
Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html