Each year I share my round-by-round thinking on my actual draft, which hopefully showcases (a) my fallabilities, because I make mistakes in every draft, and (b) how I try to implement the principles I regularly push on this page. In recent years I've decided to comepete in only one league--the FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League. Last night was the draft for Group A--the top division in the PFFL's six-division Winners Circuit. Jaders Calcano won it last time. Doug Harrison won it the year before. I made the semis one year and the finals the other. Hoping not to embarrass myself this year against some of the toughest managers I've ever played against.
Before the draft, I wrote down which players at each position I wanted to target. Some were priced right according to ADP. Others were bargains. Then when the draft room opened an hour beforehand, I set up my queue with about 40 of these names. With 224 players coming off the board, I needed to dig deep in places to ensure no one--not even an RB with a 200 ADP--slipped through the cracks. And here's how it all went down:
Round 1 -- I picked #2 overall, and 10 minutes before the draft I e-mailed the #1 manager, Joe Gow, to see if he was taking CMC. He wrote back that he didn't know (or he didn't want to tell me). So I was prepared to take CMC or Alvin Kamara. When he drafted CMC, I didn't hesitate to take Kamara. Why not Nick Chubb, who's ranked one spot ahead of Kamara on my draft board? Because sometimes there are in-the-moment shifts. Although I believe Chubb will dominate, drafting him meant I'd have to burn a fourth rounder on Kareem Hunt. But Kamara doesn't have a capable backup, so I'd probably end up with a better starting lineup as a result.
Round 2 -- Pick #27, which as many of you know is a brutal wait, as 24 must-start players come of the board. My options include any elite QB, several RBs like James Robinson and the injured D'Andre Swift, the last supposedly elite TE (George Kittle), and a bunch of great wideouts. Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson are my favorite WRs, and they're ranked online side-by-side. So I take Keenan in the hope that Joe prefers Keenan over Robinson--meaning he's more likely to pass on Robinson.
Round 3 -- Two picks later, Robinson is still there. Big relief. I now have two solid candidates for WR1 production.
Round 4 -- A run on QBs removes five from the board. So now I have to decide whether to take someone like Aaron Rodgers, one of the last clear-cut starting RBs, or a top-5 TE. Tommy Barnett takes Kyle Pitts right before my turn, making my decision easier: I snag Mark Andrews, who has back-to-back top-5 TE seasons (points per game), and who might see at least a short-term bump because of Baltimore's injury issues.
Round 5 -- Joe takes Rodgers, and now I'm making what might be my biggest error of the night--or maybe it'll work out (because no one deliberately makes errors, right?). This is my last chance to get a second starting RB, and it might be my last chance to land a top-8 QB. Since QB options run pretty deep this year (a lot of potential back-end QB1s), I accept defeat at this position and draft Mike Davis. If Davis can be better than Todd Gurley was last year (highly possible), it should work out fine.
Round 6 -- Six more QBs come off the board. The only remaining RBs are backups or entrenched timeshare backs like Zack Moss or Devin Singletary, so maybe Davis was the right call. With two RBs, two WRs, and a TE, my sole focus is getting another RB. I want to end up with 6-7 of them--as many handcuffs as possible. But at pick #83, Michael Thomas is still available. Who knows what kind of contribution he'll make. But it's worth the risk. Even if he returns as merely a WR2, I'll have a very strong wideout trio to anchor an otherwise (hopefully) solid lineup.
Round 7 -- Now I can focus on RBs. It starts with one of my favorite fantasy bargains, period: A.J. Dillon. I don't trust Aaron Jones as a bellcow. Dillon would be an RB1 if Jones gets hurt, and it's quite possible this backfield could become an RBBC by October.
Round 8 -- Waiting patiently as another 24 players are taken. I know exactly who I want, and am just hoping he makes it back to me. And he does--barely, based on the comments that pop up within seconds after the selection. Marquez Callaway has been one of my favorite WR bargains all month. I now have an insurance policy--and a strong flex option--in case Thomas remains sidelined or gets traded.
Round 9 -- A few picks later I return to my RB handcuff strategy, taking Alexander Mattison. He and Tony Pollard are side-by-side on in ADP. But I believe Dalvin Cook is a greater injury risk than Zeke Elliott, so that's the tiebreaker.
Round 10 -- 24 picks later, I can sense there's going to be another run on QBs. Because we have seven bench spots, and because there are 14 teams, everyone usually rosters two, and occasionally someone has three. I have zero, so if I don't want to get stuck with a fringe/temporary starter, this is the time. I start with the quarterback I'm been pushing as the next Lamar Jackson (possibly) since July: Trey Lance. In the short term, he'll probably be worthless. Longer term, I think he can be a consistent QB1 in that offense.
Round 11 -- One of Joe's two picks at the turn is Joe Burrow. I pounce on Ben Roethlisberger. He's the ideal option for me at this late stage: a solid QB2 floor and, because of his elite receivers and improved backfield (despite an o-line downgrade), a legit chance at semi-regular QB1 production. A stretch? Not at all. He was the 14th best QB last year despite his receivers leading the league in drops. There's room for improvement, and that's why I felt comfortable waiting for a guy with an inexplicable QB-20 ADP.
Round 12 -- Five more QBs come off the board, followed by the first kicker at pick #165. Two picks later, I go with Harrison Butker to lock in a potentially elite kicker. Probably won't make a big difference, but better than a top 8-10 kicker I'm hoping will break through.
Round 13 -- With two DSTs drafted, I roll with the Patriots. The Ravens and Washington, and a couple other teams are ranked better. But New England has moved up my rankings in recent weeks to #6, and they have an easier schedule than Baltimore and Washington. It's an in-the-moment judgment call that reinforces why, although I largely adhere to my rankings, they're not always locked in place.
Round 14 -- Back to handcuffs: I take Mike Davis's backup, Qadree Ollison.
Round 15 -- With only scraps remaining at most positions, and with Joe briefly deliberating on his two picks, I notice T.Y. Hilton is still available. Of course, Hilton is questionable for Week 1. Add to that the relative uncertainty surrounding Carson Wentz, and no wonder no one wants him. But I do, especially at this price. Wentz is a far better passer than Philip Rivers was last year. Hilton was a WR5 last year and could be a WR3/4 if Wentz returns to 2019 form. That's a risk worth taking, especially since I have only three healthy wideouts.
Round 16 -- My final pick is Jermar Jefferson. With Swift ailing and Jamaal Williams overrated, Jefferson has an outside shot at spot-starting some games. That's good enough for me.
So my starters are Ben, Kamara, Davis, Keenan, Robinson, Andrews, Callaway, Butker, and the Patriots. My bench is Lance, Dillon, Mattison, Ollison, Jefferson, Thomas, and Hilton. In a perfectly realistic world, Ben and/or Lance offer back-end QB1 value; Kamara is elite; Davis is an RB2; Keenan, Robinson, and a healthy Thomas give me the best WR combo in the league; Andrews is top-5; Butker is top-5; and New England is top-5. Meanwhile, if Dalvin Cook or Aaron Jones gets hurt, I'll be in an even better position, and will have the RB leverage to trade for a QB upgrade.
This is how I process a draft. It's pretty similar each season, though obviously with very different results. Feel free to jump in and tell me what I did right and what I should have done better. Last year I recall getting verbally beaten up after taking Swift in the sixth round. So this is all speculation until the games happen. But don't hold back: it's more fun that way.
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Before the draft, I wrote down which players at each position I wanted to target. Some were priced right according to ADP. Others were bargains. Then when the draft room opened an hour beforehand, I set up my queue with about 40 of these names. With 224 players coming off the board, I needed to dig deep in places to ensure no one--not even an RB with a 200 ADP--slipped through the cracks. And here's how it all went down:
Round 1 -- I picked #2 overall, and 10 minutes before the draft I e-mailed the #1 manager, Joe Gow, to see if he was taking CMC. He wrote back that he didn't know (or he didn't want to tell me). So I was prepared to take CMC or Alvin Kamara. When he drafted CMC, I didn't hesitate to take Kamara. Why not Nick Chubb, who's ranked one spot ahead of Kamara on my draft board? Because sometimes there are in-the-moment shifts. Although I believe Chubb will dominate, drafting him meant I'd have to burn a fourth rounder on Kareem Hunt. But Kamara doesn't have a capable backup, so I'd probably end up with a better starting lineup as a result.
Round 2 -- Pick #27, which as many of you know is a brutal wait, as 24 must-start players come of the board. My options include any elite QB, several RBs like James Robinson and the injured D'Andre Swift, the last supposedly elite TE (George Kittle), and a bunch of great wideouts. Keenan Allen and Allen Robinson are my favorite WRs, and they're ranked online side-by-side. So I take Keenan in the hope that Joe prefers Keenan over Robinson--meaning he's more likely to pass on Robinson.
Round 3 -- Two picks later, Robinson is still there. Big relief. I now have two solid candidates for WR1 production.
Round 4 -- A run on QBs removes five from the board. So now I have to decide whether to take someone like Aaron Rodgers, one of the last clear-cut starting RBs, or a top-5 TE. Tommy Barnett takes Kyle Pitts right before my turn, making my decision easier: I snag Mark Andrews, who has back-to-back top-5 TE seasons (points per game), and who might see at least a short-term bump because of Baltimore's injury issues.
Round 5 -- Joe takes Rodgers, and now I'm making what might be my biggest error of the night--or maybe it'll work out (because no one deliberately makes errors, right?). This is my last chance to get a second starting RB, and it might be my last chance to land a top-8 QB. Since QB options run pretty deep this year (a lot of potential back-end QB1s), I accept defeat at this position and draft Mike Davis. If Davis can be better than Todd Gurley was last year (highly possible), it should work out fine.
Round 6 -- Six more QBs come off the board. The only remaining RBs are backups or entrenched timeshare backs like Zack Moss or Devin Singletary, so maybe Davis was the right call. With two RBs, two WRs, and a TE, my sole focus is getting another RB. I want to end up with 6-7 of them--as many handcuffs as possible. But at pick #83, Michael Thomas is still available. Who knows what kind of contribution he'll make. But it's worth the risk. Even if he returns as merely a WR2, I'll have a very strong wideout trio to anchor an otherwise (hopefully) solid lineup.
Round 7 -- Now I can focus on RBs. It starts with one of my favorite fantasy bargains, period: A.J. Dillon. I don't trust Aaron Jones as a bellcow. Dillon would be an RB1 if Jones gets hurt, and it's quite possible this backfield could become an RBBC by October.
Round 8 -- Waiting patiently as another 24 players are taken. I know exactly who I want, and am just hoping he makes it back to me. And he does--barely, based on the comments that pop up within seconds after the selection. Marquez Callaway has been one of my favorite WR bargains all month. I now have an insurance policy--and a strong flex option--in case Thomas remains sidelined or gets traded.
Round 9 -- A few picks later I return to my RB handcuff strategy, taking Alexander Mattison. He and Tony Pollard are side-by-side on in ADP. But I believe Dalvin Cook is a greater injury risk than Zeke Elliott, so that's the tiebreaker.
Round 10 -- 24 picks later, I can sense there's going to be another run on QBs. Because we have seven bench spots, and because there are 14 teams, everyone usually rosters two, and occasionally someone has three. I have zero, so if I don't want to get stuck with a fringe/temporary starter, this is the time. I start with the quarterback I'm been pushing as the next Lamar Jackson (possibly) since July: Trey Lance. In the short term, he'll probably be worthless. Longer term, I think he can be a consistent QB1 in that offense.
Round 11 -- One of Joe's two picks at the turn is Joe Burrow. I pounce on Ben Roethlisberger. He's the ideal option for me at this late stage: a solid QB2 floor and, because of his elite receivers and improved backfield (despite an o-line downgrade), a legit chance at semi-regular QB1 production. A stretch? Not at all. He was the 14th best QB last year despite his receivers leading the league in drops. There's room for improvement, and that's why I felt comfortable waiting for a guy with an inexplicable QB-20 ADP.
Round 12 -- Five more QBs come off the board, followed by the first kicker at pick #165. Two picks later, I go with Harrison Butker to lock in a potentially elite kicker. Probably won't make a big difference, but better than a top 8-10 kicker I'm hoping will break through.
Round 13 -- With two DSTs drafted, I roll with the Patriots. The Ravens and Washington, and a couple other teams are ranked better. But New England has moved up my rankings in recent weeks to #6, and they have an easier schedule than Baltimore and Washington. It's an in-the-moment judgment call that reinforces why, although I largely adhere to my rankings, they're not always locked in place.
Round 14 -- Back to handcuffs: I take Mike Davis's backup, Qadree Ollison.
Round 15 -- With only scraps remaining at most positions, and with Joe briefly deliberating on his two picks, I notice T.Y. Hilton is still available. Of course, Hilton is questionable for Week 1. Add to that the relative uncertainty surrounding Carson Wentz, and no wonder no one wants him. But I do, especially at this price. Wentz is a far better passer than Philip Rivers was last year. Hilton was a WR5 last year and could be a WR3/4 if Wentz returns to 2019 form. That's a risk worth taking, especially since I have only three healthy wideouts.
Round 16 -- My final pick is Jermar Jefferson. With Swift ailing and Jamaal Williams overrated, Jefferson has an outside shot at spot-starting some games. That's good enough for me.
So my starters are Ben, Kamara, Davis, Keenan, Robinson, Andrews, Callaway, Butker, and the Patriots. My bench is Lance, Dillon, Mattison, Ollison, Jefferson, Thomas, and Hilton. In a perfectly realistic world, Ben and/or Lance offer back-end QB1 value; Kamara is elite; Davis is an RB2; Keenan, Robinson, and a healthy Thomas give me the best WR combo in the league; Andrews is top-5; Butker is top-5; and New England is top-5. Meanwhile, if Dalvin Cook or Aaron Jones gets hurt, I'll be in an even better position, and will have the RB leverage to trade for a QB upgrade.
This is how I process a draft. It's pretty similar each season, though obviously with very different results. Feel free to jump in and tell me what I did right and what I should have done better. Last year I recall getting verbally beaten up after taking Swift in the sixth round. So this is all speculation until the games happen. But don't hold back: it's more fun that way.
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Preseason Draft Rankings Sign-up: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/preseason-rankings.html