Five Biggest Questions
1. Is Tom Brady a top-10 QB?
2. Are Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones RB3+ options?
3. Will Mike Evans and Chris Godwin deliver WR2+ production?
4. Can Antonio Brown be a WR3+?
5. Is Rob Gronkowski a TE1?
When a quarterback's second best statistical campaign comes at age 43, it means one of two things: it's either his second season in the NFL, or he played through a partially torn ligament tear in his knee and his name's Tom Brady. In Tom Brady's case, it's the latter. Now Brady's not stupid. He left New England at the perfect time, and he signed with the perfect team. Tampa Bay had two elite young wideouts, an up-and-coming talented tight end, and a solid young running back. Then they added a future Hall-of-Fame wideout, a future Hall-of-Fame tight end, and a former #4 overall RB draft pick with two 1,000+ yard seasons under his belt. So Brady joined a team whose passing attack was far-and-away better than the aerial weapons he left in New England, and then his new team added three more weapons just to make sure Brady had what he needed.
Brady will always be one of the NFL's most polarizing players. And last season typified why most people either love him or hate him. He joined a franchise that had only one winning season since 2011 and effectively led them to a title. Also, he joined a franchise that was beyond loaded. If Peyton Manning could rack up the greatest QB season in history (up to that point) with zero future Hall-of-Fame RBs, WRs, and TEs (Demaryius Thomas was the best, and he's probably not HOF worthy), surely Brady could perform admirably with perhaps the greatest collection of pass-catchers in league history.
Now Brady is presumably healthy, and all his core weapons are returning. So why the QB-9 ADP? What's stopping him from a repeat performance, or even something better? Maybe it's because each year he gets older, injury risks grow. Maybe he won't need to throw it 600+ times again. Or maybe his arm strength isn't what it was even a couple years ago. Who knows. These questions have been popping up annually since his late-30's. Betting on Brady is like betting on ocean tides. There's no advantage to betting against the moon. We just have to accept that it does what it does. So too with Brady.
Back to the backfield: Leonard Fournette (RB-31) and Ronald Jones (RB-36) will continue to split touches. Both are squarely in their prime. Gio Bernard (RB-54) was brought in because, despite advancing age and declining talent, he remains a very good pass-catcher. I can't envision Gio being draftable in many leagues, as his ADP is more optimistic than it might seem. Instead, Fournette and Jones are a solid pair to snag at their overall 7th/8th round (respectively) ADPs. If last year is any indication, one will certainly outperform expectations, and the other might not be far behind.
I could write 1,000 words on the Bucs' wideouts. But I think we're all on the same page. Mike Evans (WR-13) and Chris Godwin (WR-17) are unstoppable some weeks, and other weeks they're merely good. The biggest risk is that there are so many mouths to feed. Evans earned only 109 targets in 2020--the fewest of his career. Godwin averaged seven last season after averaged 8.6 the year before. These numbers obviously matter, because conditions haven't changed much heading into 2021. Not long ago, Antonio Brown's career appeared to be over. In another professional sport, it might have been. He was a WR2 last year in half a season, yet his WR ADP is 42. I don't understand why. He should be viewed as a top 35-40 WR at minimum, with a real shot at cracking the top 25. And Scotty Miller (WR-92) and Tyler Johnson (WR-93) will battle for possibly several starts assuming the Big Three can't stay on the field all 16 games.
Finally, Tampa Bay has three starter-caliber tight ends. Gronk (TE-14) is priced fairly given his top-10 finish in 2020. He simply needs to stay healthy to post top-16 numbers. I have no problem drafting him when the top 12 are off the board. O.J. Howard (TE-29) is recovering from a season-ending injury and is no lock to contibute more than one or two catches per game. Cameron Brate (TE-46) could still step up if needed, especially in this offense. If Gronk goes down and Howard isn't back to 100%, Brate could actually be relevant in deep leagues. But this also might be the last time I mention Brate until 2022.
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